Matrixport投研:散户参与度降低,BTC越来越由机构投资者主导

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-07-12Last updated on 2024-07-12

Abstract

过去30天,BTC 价格大部下跌发生在亚洲交易时段,占整体跌幅-15%中的-13%。

Matrixport 研究院最新研究如下:

  • 法币与加密资产兑换难度加大,散户对于 BTC 的兴趣在下降

  • 市场散户参与度低,BTC 越来越由机构投资者主导

  • 韩国散户交易群体行为或与近 30 天 BTC 价格下跌有相关性

BTC 谷歌搜索指数下降,新进流量对于 BTC 兴趣在降低

Google Trends 数据表明,市场需要散户对 BTC 的更多关注。BTC 搜索指数在 2017 年飙升期间,搜索趋势达到 100% , 2021 年降至 67% , 2024 年 3 月进一步降至 41% 。表面上看,这表明散户对 BTC 的兴趣有限,但不排除随着人们对 BTC 认知的提高,搜索"什么是比特币"的必要性在降低。同时,散户面临将法币兑换为加密货币的挑战,这或对加密市场产生深远影响。

市场散户参与度低,BTC 越来越由机构投资者主导

虽然 BTC 从 2022 年底的低点反弹已超过 300% ,但散户参与度仍然低迷。有人认为这是因为我们仍处于市场周期的早期阶段,但 BTC 因散户杠杆导致的 5% 涨幅或 10% 跌幅的剧烈波动日子已经一去不复返。如今市场更加稳定,周末的波动性降至最低,因为许多交易者在周一至周五跟随机构进行买卖操作。

即使 BTC 经历了 20% 的回调,但其实际波动率始终低于 5 年平均水平(60% ),目前仅为 41% 。随着散户参与度的降低, BTC 越来越由机构投资者主导,导致波动率下降。BTC 跌破 60000 美元时,韩国散户的平仓进一步证明了这一从散户到机构的显著转变。与此同时,ETF 继续保持稳定的资金流入。

韩国散户交易群体行为或与近 30 天 BTC 价格下跌有相关性

分析 BTC 在不同时区的表现时发现:过去 30 天,BTC 大部分下跌发生在亚洲交易时段,占整体跌幅-15% 中的-13% 。这一趋势可能受到韩国散户交易群体在这些时间段内主导市场活动的影响。

在散户活动分析中,韩国尤为突出。韩国交易所的交易量与 BTC 的年化资金费率密切相关,这是基差交易(现货与期货)盈利的关键指标和市场动向的信号。韩国交易用户在山寨币市场的兴起中发挥了关键作用。他们对山寨币的兴趣(部分原因是韩国没有面向散户投资者的期货市场)带来了大量的杠杆机会。

上述部分观点来自 Matrix on Target, 与我们联系获取 Matrix on Target 完整报告。

免责声明:市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成投资建议。数字资产交易可能具有极大的风险和不稳定性。投资决策应在仔细考虑个人情况并咨询金融专业人士后做出。Matrixport 不对基于本内容所提供信息的任何投资决策负责。

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