SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240624):门头沟又来了

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-06-24Last updated on 2024-06-24

Abstract

在过去的两周里,笼罩在BTC币价上方的乌云不只是现货ETF的大量连续流出。期权方面,实际波动的升高和市场对后市担忧大幅抬高了前端隐含波动率水平。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240624):门头沟又来了

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240624):门头沟又来了

在过去的两周里,笼罩在 BTC 币价上方的乌云不只是现货 ETF 的大量连续流出,还有门头沟这颗定时炸弹。今日,Mt. Gox trustees 正式开启对债权人的偿还,根据 Mt. Gox 的受托人 Nobuaki Kobayashi 表示,此次赔付将采用 BTC 支付,并将在七月初开始。结合一个月前由门头沟地址转出的 14000 个 BTC,市场在新闻出来后立刻做出避险反应,使得 BTC 短线大跌,一度下探至 61000 下方。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240624):门头沟又来了

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240624):门头沟又来了

Source:  Farside Investors; TradingView

期权方面,实际波动的升高和市场对后市担忧大幅抬高了前端隐含波动率水平,同时前端的 Vol Skew 也和价格保持正相关,下跌至负值区间。从 BTC 的交易上看,在新闻之前,尽管价格已经连续下跌数日,市场上集中在六月底的 Flow 仍然以 Long Risky 为主,也许是低价吸引到了看涨期权的抄底,亦或是对 61000/60000 两道关键支撑位的信任。

ETH 方面,The ETF Store 总裁再度表示,以太坊现货 ETF 现货或于下周推出,让社群又有了些盼头,市场预期也推动七月往后微笑曲线向看涨期权倾斜,与前端形成明显对比。但市场上似乎也有分歧出现,在高 IV 和高 Vol Skew 的情况下,七月底 4000-C 被卖出 3000 多张,成为昨日的交易热点。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240624):门头沟又来了

Source: Deribit (截至 24 JUN 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240624):门头沟又来了

Source: SignalPlus,前端 IV 在暴跌后上涨

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240624):门头沟又来了

Source: SignalPlus,Vol Skew

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240624):门头沟又来了

Data Source: Deribit, ETH 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240624):门头沟又来了

Data Source: Deribit,BTC 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240624):门头沟又来了

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240624):门头沟又来了

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240624):门头沟又来了

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ,获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新,欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ,或者加入我们的微信群(添加小助手微信:SignalPlus 123)、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群,和更多朋友一起交流互动。SignalPlus Official Website:https://www.signalplus.com

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