上线4个月吸金约200亿美元,IBIT成为影响BTC价格走势的新推手?

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-05-31Last updated on 2024-05-31

Abstract

IBIT资产管理的BTC规模正式超越GBTC,且比GBTC领先3000多万美元,成为全球BTC持仓规模最大的比特币现货ETF。

原文作者:西柚,ChainCatcher

原文编辑:Marco,ChainCatcher

5 月 29 日,贝莱德(BlackRock)的 iShares 比特币现货 ETF IBIT 资产规模已超过灰度 Grayscale 旗下的 GBTC,成为全球持仓 BTC 规模最大的比特币现货 ETF。

根据 HOD L1 5 Capital 数据显示, 5 月 28 日,贝莱德的比特币现货 ETF IBIT 流入了约 1.02 亿美元(1503 枚 BTC),持有的 BTC 数量已超过 28.867 万个,约合价值 197.95 亿美元。

同天内,灰度旗下的 GBTC 管理的资金则流出超 1.05 亿美元资金(约合 1543 枚 BTC),是近两周内资金流出量最大的一天,GBTC 持有 BTC 数量约有 28.745 万枚,价值为 197.58 亿美元。

IBIT 资产管理的 BTC 规模正式超越 GBTC,且比 GBTC 领先 3000 多万美元,成为全球 BTC 持仓规模最大的比特币现货 ETF。

上线 4 个月,IBIT 吸金约 200 亿美元

根据贝莱德官网数据显示,截至 5 月 30 日,IBIT 过去 30 天日均交易量为 2472 万美元。

上线4个月吸金约200亿美元,IBIT成为影响BTC价格走势的新推手?

自 1 月 11 日上线交易,仅仅过去 4 个月的时间,IBIT 就成功吸引了价值约 200 亿美元的 BTC,是有史以来增长最快的 ETF 之一。

对于 IBIT 短时间内取得如此优异的数据表现,彭博社 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 发文表示,IBIT 可谓是一个传奇,历史上只有一只 ETF 在不到 1000 天内达到 200 亿美元的资产规模,JEPI 用了 985 天做到,而 IBIT 仅用约 137 天的时间就做到了同样的规模。

上线4个月吸金约200亿美元,IBIT成为影响BTC价格走势的新推手?

根据 SoSoValue 数据显示,IBIT 自 1 月 11 日上线后一直到 4 月中旬,连续超 3 个月的时间内资金都是正向流入。

其中,上线首日流入的资金就超过 1.1 亿美元,此时 BTC 价格为 4.6 万美元;3 月 12 日当天流入的资金量达到最高,约 8.48 亿美元,第二天(3 月 13 日),BTC 价格创下 7.37 万美元历史高点。

上线4个月吸金约200亿美元,IBIT成为影响BTC价格走势的新推手?

关于 IBIT 资金的增长,Eric Balchunas 表示,IBIT 低费用、流动性大以及贝莱德 iShares 品牌影响力强大。

另外,他还补充道,近期 IBIT 的总交易次数虽有所下降,但平均交易规模有所上升,这意味着大型投资者取代了散户“小鱼”。

GBTC 资金流出背后:费用贵、溢价或折价风险

GBTC 和 IBIT 同作为比特币现货 ETF,二者表现为何南辕北辙,在同期内 GBTC 一直是资金在流出,IBIT 呈现的是资金在流入?

根据 HOD L1 5 Capital 数据统计表,自 IBIT 上线后,GBTC 每周几乎都是资金流出的状态,才有了 IBIT 能快速超越的机会。

上线4个月吸金约200亿美元,IBIT成为影响BTC价格走势的新推手?

灰度旗下的 GBTC 自 2013 年起就已存在,是最早的面向大众的参与 BTC 投资的合规产品,在比特币现货 ETF 上线之前,曾管理着约 61.9 万枚 BTC。

“灰度 GBTC 加仓或减仓 BTC”曾被加密社区一度认为是 BTC 价格晴雨表的重要指标。

为何在贝莱德的 IBIT、富达的 FBTC 等比特币现货 ETF 上线后,GBTC 资产管理规模一直在缩水?这主要是因为 GBTC 和比特币现货 ETF 产品的运作方式不同。

GBTC 是一款比特币信托基金,也就是说,投资者把钱交给灰度,灰度代表投资者购买和保管加密货币,然后向投资者发行股份,代表其在信托基金中的份额,且投资者只能在二级市场买份额,不支持赎回。

GBTC 的股价与其持有的比特币数量和市场价值相关,但经常出现高溢价或折价的情况。溢价是指 GBTC 的股价高于其每股持有的比特币价值,折价是指 GBTC 的股价低于其每股持有的比特币价值。

比特币现货 ETF 是一种直接持有比特币的 ETF,其价格与比特币市场价格一致,不会出现溢价或折价的情况。

今年 1 月 GBTC 被 SEC 批准可转换为比特币现货 ETF,同时支持投资者通过授权交易商(AP)自由赎回其基金份额,将手里持有的 ETF 份额变成美元现金。这意味着,GBTC 持有者在该产品转换为 ETF 之前无法套现收益。

GBTC 资金的流出背后主要有两大原因:

一是 GBTC 的资金管理费过高,是同类竞争对手的 5 – 6 倍,GBTC 的管理费约 1.5% ,而比特币现货 ETF 的费率只有 0.2% 左右或更低;

二是可以避免 GBTC 的溢价或折价的风险,因为 GBTC 的不能赎回机制导致其基金价格和比特币的市场价值之间的差异可能会很大,而比特币现货 ETF 的价格和比特币的市场价格之间的差异很小。

据 SoSoValue 数据显示,自比特币 ETF 上线后,GBTC 已连续 4 个月处于净流出的状态,进入 5 月后流出速度有所减少。

上线4个月吸金约200亿美元,IBIT成为影响BTC价格走势的新推手?

截至 5 月 30 日,GBTC 持有的资产管理规模价值为 192.8 亿美元,过去 4 个月共计已流出了 33.2 万枚 BTC,还持有约 28.7 万枚左右。

IBIT 已成影响 BTC 价格走势的新推手

如今,IBIT 资金管理规模已经超越 GBTC 约 2 亿美元,也将成为新的影响比特币价格走势的背后推动力量。

做市商 Wintermute 对此表示:“这代表着 BTC 供需格局的重大转变,现在投资者将不再关注 GBTC,转而关注 IBIT 的资金流入和流出,这或会推动用户关注比特币 ETF 或背后的 BTC。”

截止 5 月 30 日,比特币现货 ETF 总资产净值为 576.83 亿美元,IBIT 市场份额占比超过 33.7% 。

上线4个月吸金约200亿美元,IBIT成为影响BTC价格走势的新推手?

其中,百亿美元规模的比特币 ETF 有 3 个,包括 IBIT(为 194.8 亿美元)、GBTC(为 192.8 亿美元)、FBTC(为 109.4 亿美元)。

以 IBIT 为代表的比特币现货 ETF,正成为传统资本进入加密领域的入口,相比较上一轮灰度带来的机构牛,贝莱德等全球最大的资管公司们,这次带入的资金体量更大。

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