现货ETF炒作仍不休!期权市场押注以太坊将升破5000美元

jin10Published on 2024-05-28Last updated on 2024-05-28

在美国监管机构意外为以太坊现货ETF上市扫清关键障碍后,对以太坊价格将进一步上涨的押注正在加剧,尽管人们对该产品的需求前景存疑。

外媒汇编的数据显示,美国证券交易委员会(SEC)的这一转变促使第二大代币在截至上周日的七天内上涨了26%,这是其自2021年加密货币牛市以来的最大单周涨幅。

以太坊创2021年以来最佳单周表现

投机者可能因1月份美国现货比特币ETF创纪录的首次亮相而感到振奋,这些ETF已积累了590亿美元的资产。但以太坊的知名度不如比特币,这使得投资者对现货以太坊ETF的兴趣更难分析。

此外,现货以太坊ETF取消了质押,即通过质押代币来维护以太坊区块链以获得奖励的过程。与持有代币相比,这种功能的缺席可能会削弱人们对这些基金的兴趣。

贝莱德公司(BlackRock Inc.)和富达投资(Fidelity Investments)等发行商仍需获得SEC的进一步批准才能推出产品,具体时间尚不清楚。截至发稿,以太坊徘徊在3900美元附近,而比特币在隔夜触及7万美元大关后有所回落,目前交投在69300美元。

Pepperstone集团研究主管Chris Weston在一份报告中写道:“以太坊仍然存在上行风险,回调是买入机会。”

下面的图表总结了以太坊在今年上涨71%之后潜在的走势情况。

根据Deribit交易平台的数据,看涨期权押注的高度集中表明,一些交易员认为以太坊将攀升至5000美元甚至更高。目前该代币的最高纪录是2021年11月创下的4866美元。

期权表明一些交易员预计以太坊将创下历史新高

T3以太坊波动性指数(使用期权价格来预测代币未来30天内的预期波动)与比特币的类似指标之间的差距,至少是自2023年初以来的最大差距。这表明,投机者预计以太坊的波动幅度将超过全球最大的加密货币。

投机者预计以太坊的波动幅度将远大于比特币

一些分析师认为,芝加哥商品交易所集团(CME Group Inc.)托管的期货需求,是了解美国机构对受监管的加密货币投资兴趣的一个窗口。CME以太坊期货的未平仓合约数量正在增加,但远不如CME比特币期货,这表明机构对以太坊的参与度较低,或许也意味着对未来的以太坊ETF的参与度较低。

《Crypto Is Macro Now》时事通讯的作者诺埃尔·艾奇逊(Noelle Acheson)写道:“预计在以太坊现货ETF推出时,机构的参与度将相对较低,这表明最初的资金流入可能会令人失望。”
黑线:CME以太坊期货的未平仓合约数量;红线:CME比特币期货的未平仓合约数量

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