加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.05.17-05.24)：以太坊的ETF通过前夕大涨18%

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-05-25Last updated on 2024-05-25

Abstract

在过去一周中，比特币和以太坊的价格都在5月20日的彭博分析师提前预测以太坊ETF消息上涨，但在ETF正式通过后，以太坊从高位下跌后出现反弹。在这一过程中，比特币和以太坊的历史波动率都达到了最大值。

以太坊的 ETF 通过前夕大涨 18% 

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.05.17-05.24)：以太坊的ETF通过前夕大涨18%

https://www.coinglass.com/zh/LiquidationData

在 2024.05.20 ，根據彭博社分析師的消息：SEC 正要求交易所加快對以太坊現貨 ETF 19 b-4 文件的提交，彭博社分析師並將以太坊現貨 ETF 於 5/23 通過的勝率提高至 75% ，ETH 大漲 18% ，当日空头爆仓量高达 7500 万美金，直至 2024.5.23 正式通过后以太坊从最高 3950 美元下跌至最低 3524 美元，多头爆仓量高达 8816 万美金，随后反弹上升回 3800 美元。

2024 年 5 月 20 日，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）要求交易所加快对以太坊现货交易所交易基金（ETF）的 19 b-4 文件提交。彭博社分析师预测以太坊现货 ETF 的通过率提高至 75% 。在此消息下，以太坊价格出现了急涨，上涨了 18% 。当天空头合约爆仓量高达 7500 万美元。

然而，在 2024 年 5 月 23 日，以太坊现货 ETF 正式通过后，以太坊价格却出现了急速下跌。最高价从 3950 美元下跌至最低价 3524 美元。此时，多头合约也发生了爆仓，爆仓量高达 8816 万美元。随后，以太坊价格出现反弹，并回升至 3800 美元。

距离下一次美联储议息会议（2024.06.13）还有约 20 天

https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168

市场技术与情绪环境分析

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.05.17-05.24)：以太坊的ETF通过前夕大涨18%

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.05.17-05.24)：以太坊的ETF通过前夕大涨18%

情绪分析组成

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.05.17-05.24)：以太坊的ETF通过前夕大涨18%

技术指标

价格走势

过去一周 BTC 价格上涨+ 4.19% ，ETH 价格上涨+ 28.49% 。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.05.17-05.24)：以太坊的ETF通过前夕大涨18%

上图是 BTC 过去一周的价格图

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.05.17-05.24)：以太坊的ETF通过前夕大涨18%

上图是 ETH 过去一周的价格图

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.05.17-05.24)：以太坊的ETF通过前夕大涨18%

表格显示过去一个周的价格变化率

价量分布图（支撑阻力）

过去一周 BTC 价格向上突破后回落至密集成交区内，而 ETH 价格向上突破密集成交区。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.05.17-05.24)：以太坊的ETF通过前夕大涨18%

上图是 BTC 过去一周的密集成交区分布图

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.05.17-05.24)：以太坊的ETF通过前夕大涨18%

上图是 ETH 过去一周的密集成交区分布图

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.05.17-05.24)：以太坊的ETF通过前夕大涨18%

表格显示 BTC 与 ETH 过去一周中每周的密集成交区间

成交量与未平仓量

过去一周成交量 BTC 在 5.20 上涨时最大而 ETH 在 5.22 高位下跌时最大；未平仓量 BTC 变化不大而 ETH 大幅上升。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.05.17-05.24)：以太坊的ETF通过前夕大涨18%

上图最上方 BTC 的价格走势，中间是成交量、最下方是未平仓量、浅蓝色是 1 天均值，橘色是 7 天均值。其中 K 线的颜色代表当前的状态，绿色是价格上升有成交量支持，红色是在平仓，黄色是在缓慢累积仓位，黑色是拥挤状态。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.05.17-05.24)：以太坊的ETF通过前夕大涨18%

上图最上方 ETH 的价格走势，中间是成交量、最下方是未平仓量、浅蓝色是 1 天均值，橘色是 7 天均值。其中 K 线的颜色代表当前的状态，绿色是价格上升有成交量支持，红色是在平仓，黄色是在缓慢累积仓位，黑色是拥挤状态。

历史波动率与隐含波动率

过去一周历史波动率 BTC 与 ETH 在 5.20 上涨时最高；隐含波动率 BTC 下降而 ETH 上升。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.05.17-05.24)：以太坊的ETF通过前夕大涨18%

黄色线为历史波动率，蓝色线为隐含波动率，红点是其 7 日平均

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.05.17-05.24)：以太坊的ETF通过前夕大涨18%

事件驱动

在事件方面，本周美国 SEC 通过以太坊的 ETF，价格在通过前上涨了 18% 左右，通过后价格高位急跌后反弹。

情绪指标

动量情绪

过去一周比特币/黄金/纳指/恒指/沪深 300 中，比特币最强势，而表现最差为恒指。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.05.17-05.24)：以太坊的ETF通过前夕大涨18%

上图为不同资产过去一周的走势

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.05.17-05.24)：以太坊的ETF通过前夕大涨18%

放贷利率_借贷情绪

过去一周 USD 放贷年化收益平均为 12.1% ，短期利率小幅上升。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.05.17-05.24)：以太坊的ETF通过前夕大涨18%

黄色线为 USD 利率的最高价，蓝色线为最高价的 75% ，红色线为最高价的 75% 的 7 天平均值

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.05.17-05.24)：以太坊的ETF通过前夕大涨18%

表格显示 USD 利率过去不同持有天数的平均收益

资金费率_合约杠杆情绪

过去一周 BTC 资费平均年化收益为 6.8% ，合约杠杆情绪低位回升。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.05.17-05.24)：以太坊的ETF通过前夕大涨18%

蓝色线为币安上 BTC 的资金费率，红色线为其 7 日平均

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.05.17-05.24)：以太坊的ETF通过前夕大涨18%

表格显示 BTC 的资费过去不同持有天数的平均收益

市场相关性_一致性情绪

过去一周选中的 129 个币中相关性上升至 0.85 左右，不同品种间的一致性大幅上升。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.05.17-05.24)：以太坊的ETF通过前夕大涨18%

上图蓝色先为比特币价格，绿色线为['1000 floki', '1000 lunc', '1000 pepe', '1000 shib', '100 0x ec', '1inch', 'aave', 'ada', 'agix', 'algo', 'ankr', 'ant', 'ape', 'apt', 'arb', 'ar', 'astr', 'atom', 'audio', 'avax', 'axs', 'bal', 'band', 'bat', 'bch', 'bigtime', 'blur', 'bnb', 'btc', 'celo', 'cfx', 'chz', 'ckb', 'comp', 'crv', 'cvx', 'cyber', 'dash', 'doge', 'dot', 'dydx', 'egld', 'enj', 'ens', 'eos','etc', 'eth', 'fet', 'fil', 'flow', 'ftm', 'fxs', 'gala', 'gmt', 'gmx', 'grt', 'hbar', 'hot', 'icp', 'icx', 'imx', 'inj', 'iost', 'iotx', 'jasmy', 'kava', 'klay', 'ksm', 'ldo', 'link', 'loom', 'lpt', 'lqty', 'lrc', 'ltc', 'luna 2', 'magic', 'mana', 'matic', 'meme', 'mina', 'mkr', 'near', 'neo', 'ocean', 'one', 'ont', 'op', 'pendle', 'qnt', 'qtum', 'rndr', 'rose', 'rune', 'rvn', 'sand', 'sei', 'sfp', 'skl', 'snx', 'sol', 'ssv', 'stg', 'storj', 'stx', 'sui', 'sushi', 'sxp', 'theta', 'tia', 'trx', 't', 'uma', 'uni', 'vet', 'waves', 'wld', 'woo', 'xem', 'xlm', 'xmr', 'xrp', 'xtz', 'yfi', 'zec', 'zen', 'zil', 'zrx’]整体的相关性

市场宽度_整体情绪

过去一周选中的 129 个币，价格在 30 日均线上方的占比为 77% ，相对 BTC 价格在 30 日均线上方占比为 31% ，距离过去 30 天最低价大于 20% 的占比为 20% ，距离过去 30 天最高价小于 10% 的占比为 57% ，过去一周市场宽度指标显示整体市场处于逐步进入上升趋势的阶段。

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.05.17-05.24)：以太坊的ETF通过前夕大涨18%

上图为['bnb', 'btc', 'sol', 'eth', '1000 floki', '1000 lunc', '1000 pepe', '1000 sats', '1000 shib', '100 0x ec', '1inch', 'aave', 'ada', 'agix', 'ai', 'algo', 'alt', 'ankr', 'ape', 'apt', 'arb', 'ar', 'astr', 'atom', 'audio', 'avax', 'axs', 'bal', 'band', 'bat', 'bch', 'bigtime', 'blur', 'cake', 'celo', 'cfx', 'chz', 'ckb', 'comp', 'crv', 'cvx', 'cyber', 'dash', 'doge', 'dot', 'dydx', 'egld', 'enj', 'ens', 'eos','etc', 'fet', 'fil', 'flow', 'ftm', 'fxs', 'gala', 'gmt', 'gmx', 'grt', 'hbar', 'hot', 'icp', 'icx', 'idu', 'imx', 'inj', 'iost', 'iotx', 'jasmy', 'jto', 'jup', 'kava', 'klay', 'ksm', 'ldo', 'link', 'loom', 'lpt', 'lqty', 'lrc', 'ltc', 'luna 2', 'magic', 'mana', 'manta', 'mask', 'matic', 'meme', 'mina', 'mkr', 'near', 'neo', 'nfp', 'ocean', 'one', 'ont', 'op', 'ordi', 'pendle', 'pyth', 'qnt', 'qtum', 'rndr', 'robin', 'rose', 'rune', 'rvn', 'sand', 'sei', 'sfp', 'skl', 'snx', 'ssv', 'stg', 'storj', 'stx', 'sui', 'sushi', 'sxp', 'theta', 'tia', 'trx', 't', 'uma', 'uni', 'vet', 'waves', 'wif', 'wld', 'woo','xai', 'xem', 'xlm', 'xmr', 'xrp', 'xtz', 'yfi', 'zec', 'zen', 'zil', 'zrx' ] 30 日的各宽度指标占比

加密市场情绪研究报告(2024.05.17-05.24)：以太坊的ETF通过前夕大涨18%

总结

在过去一周中，比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）的价格都在 5 月 20 日的彭博分析师提前预测以太坊 ETF 消息上涨，但在 ETF 正式通过后，以太坊从高位下跌后出现反弹。在这一过程中，比特币和以太坊的历史波动率都达到了最大值。具体来说，比特币在 5 月 20 日上涨时的成交量达到最大值，而在 5 月 23 日以太坊从高位下跌后反弹时，以太坊的成交量也达到了最大值。未平仓量方面，比特币的变化不大，而以太坊的未平仓量大幅上升。此外，比特币的隐含波动率下降，而以太坊的隐含波动率上升。资金费率在低位回升，而市场宽度指标显示市场正在逐步进入上升趋势的阶段。在事件方面，本周美国证券交易委员会（SEC）通过了以太坊 ETF，导致以太坊在通过前上涨了约 18% 。然而，在 ETF 正式通过后，以太坊价格高位急跌后出现反弹。

Twitter: @DerivativesCN

Website: https://dcbot.ai/

Medium:https://medium.com/@DerivativesCN

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