SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240524)：靴子落地

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-05-24Last updated on 2024-05-24

Abstract

美国SEC官方正式宣布了ETH Spot ETF获批，但ETH币价却在新闻发布后大幅跳水至3500美元附近。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240524)：靴子落地

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240524)：靴子落地

昨晚（23 MAY）的行情没有辜负市场的期待，从晚上九点一直热闹到凌晨。在万众瞩目的 ETH 现货 ETF 公布之前，以太的币价一路上行挑战 4000 点高位，但很快便在最高处短线回吐过去一日的全部涨幅，下探至 3720 美元附近。尽管价格很快收复了大半失地，但 21: 45 （UTC+ 8）美国公布的最新数据又给到风险市场一记重击。数据显示，美国 5 月标普全球综合 PMI 指数录得 54.4 ，大超预期的 51.1 并创下过去两年以来的新高，制造业和服务业 PMI 也同样超出预期。数据公布后，美债收益率短线大涨，十年期收益率一度达到 4.4980% ，两年期也重新站上 4.9% 之上。交易员也将美联储首次降息时间推迟到 12 月，期货市场削减全年降息押注至 34 个基点，三大指数全线收跌，英伟达逆势收涨 9.3% 创下历史新高独领风骚。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240524)：靴子落地

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240524)：靴子落地

Source: Investing, 美国 5 月标普全球综合 PMI 指数大超预期至两年来新高；十年期国债收益率

随后的凌晨四点，作为今晚的重头戏，美国 SEC 官方正式宣布了 ETH Spot ETF 获批，但 ETH 币价却在新闻发布后大幅跳水至 3500 美元附近，正应了传统市场的一句格言“Buy the rumor, sell the news”，过去一周 ETH 已经涨了 29% ，数字货币评论员 Zach Rynes 也对昨晚的 Move 评论到“everyone who wanted to buy the approval already did.（要买的早买了）”。若深究其并未在利好消息后上涨的原因，很重要的一点是这次所谓的“获批”只是批准了 8 家机构（BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, Bitwise, VanEck, Ark, Invesco Galax, Franklin Templeton）提交的 19 b-4 申请，真正能交易还要等 Form S-1 也通过，而这可能要数周或是数月之久，且这次明面上同意批准的是 SEC 的 Trading&Markets 部门，而不是 SEC 主席 Gary Gensler 以其他四位委员，对此，彭博的 ETF 分析师 James Seyffart 认为，以这种委托授权的形式下决策是正常的，如果 SEC 需要对每个决策每份文件都作出“official vote”，那不合理。但无关如何揣测这个细节，加密社区都对这次批准表示出了积极的态度，称其为“历史性的举措”。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240524)：靴子落地

Source: TradingView

期权方面，ETF 的靴子落地后 BTC 和 ETH 的整体 IV 水平也很快回落，曲线走陡，ETH 平均 IV 水平回到 63% 左右。交易方面，ETH 的大宗 Top Trade 展示出明显的方向性，我们观察到五六月底 20000 张 ETH 的 short put，还有六七月底两组合计约 12000 张 ETH 的 long call spread 成交，正如上文所说， 19 b-4 获批只是打赢了胜利的前哨战，ETH 现货 ETF 的 S-1 申请通过还需要几周甚至几个月的时间，等 TradFi 的资金真正流入了数字货币市场，币价上行才有更实在的动力。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240524)：靴子落地

Source: Deribit （截至 24 MAY 16: 00 UTC+ 8）

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240524)：靴子落地

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240524)：靴子落地

Data Source: Deribit， ETH 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240524)：靴子落地

Data Source: Deribit，BTC 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240524)：靴子落地

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240524)：靴子落地

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240524)：靴子落地您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ，获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：SignalPlus 123）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com

Trending Cryptos

ctr
CitreaCTR
wstusdt
wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT
apr
aPrioriAPR
ctx
Cryptex FinanceCTX
audio
AudiusAUDIO
comp
CompoundCOMP
mantra
MantraMANTRA
xvs
VenusXVS
waxl
AxelarWAXL
bill
Billions NetworkBILL
pyth
PYTH (Pyth)PYTH
rune
THORChainRUNE
brev
BrevisBREV
zrx
ZRX（0X）ZRX
cake
PancakeSwapCAKE

Related Reads

The Full Story of How Crypto Unicorn Blockstream Is Mired in Serious Fraud Allegations

This article details serious allegations of fraud against Bitcoin infrastructure company Blockstream, founded by Bitcoin pioneer Adam Back. In June 2024, investigative account NatInfoSec published a report accusing Blockstream's mining note (BMN) program of potentially operating a multi-billion dollar scheme with Ponzi-like characteristics. The core allegations focus on Blockstream Mining Notes (BMNs), which offer investors fixed annual yields up to approximately 20% from Bitcoin mining. NatInfoSec's investigation raises several key issues: 1. **Suspicious Hashrate & Payout Capacity**: The analysis suggests Blockstream would need 20-45 EH/s of mining power to cover its BMN obligations, but its public dashboard shows only around 15 EH/s. Furthermore, no verifiable public evidence (e.g., grid connection records, import data) was found to support the massive mining operation required. 2. **Questionable Payout Source**: The BMN contract allows Blockstream to use Bitcoin from *any source* (Substitute Performance BTC) to fulfill investor payouts, raising concerns that payouts may not come from actual mining revenue. 3. **High-Risk, Fixed Returns**: Offering ~20% fixed yields in the volatile, cyclical Bitcoin mining industry is viewed as highly unusual and requires clear explanation. 4. **Undisclosed Criminal Record of Key Figure**: Christopher William Cook, a key figure in Blockstream's mining operations and CEO of spin-off Exacore, was found to have a federal felony conviction for mail fraud in 2008, a fact not disclosed in BMN offering documents. His background was also allegedly embellished. 5. **Potential Contagion to BSTR SPAC**: Questions were raised about whether these liabilities and Cook's record should have been disclosed in the SEC filings for Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company (BSTR), a separate Adam Back-associated firm planning a SPAC merger. The crypto community is divided. BitMEX Research validated Cook's criminal record and expressed concern over the high yields but found other evidence lacking or misleading, noting the legal separation between BMN, Blockstream, and BSTR. Blockstream defenders, like Samson Mow, argue the mining is real. Critics, however, emphasize the lack of independent, verifiable proof of the mining operation's scale and the true source of investor payouts. The article concludes that BMN remains shrouded in key unanswered questions regarding its actual size, the verifiability of its underlying mining assets and payouts, the source of its high yields, and the full role and disclosure concerning Chris Cook. Blockstream had not issued a comprehensive response at the time of writing.

marsbit2h ago

The Full Story of How Crypto Unicorn Blockstream Is Mired in Serious Fraud Allegations

marsbit2h ago

South Korea Targets 40 Unregistered Crypto Operators in Regulatory Crackdown

South Korea's Financial Intelligence Unit has referred around 40 unregistered virtual asset service providers to the police as part of a regulatory crackdown. Under local law, all crypto exchanges must obtain ISMS certification and FIU registration before operating, yet only 28 entities are currently registered. The FIU identified methods used by offshore platforms to attract Korean users, including advertising on local messaging apps and using private money changers to convert stablecoins. Officials stressed that unregistered platforms are not protected by Korean law. This action aligns with South Korea's push for stricter global crypto compliance through FATF measures. FIU Director Lee Hyung-joo recently urged FATF members to remove transaction thresholds for the "Travel Rule," as South Korea plans to mandate identity checks for all crypto transactions starting in August, expanding from the current 1 million won (≈$730) minimum. Regulatory enforcement has intensified in 2026, with authorities pursuing criminal cases against market manipulation schemes and enhancing cooperation with financial institutions to curb cross-border illegal transactions.

TheNewsCrypto2h ago

South Korea Targets 40 Unregistered Crypto Operators in Regulatory Crackdown

TheNewsCrypto2h ago

The Full Story Behind Encryption Unicorn Blockstream's Deep Entanglement in Serious Fraud Allegations

This article details allegations of serious fraud surrounding the crypto company Blockstream, founded by Bitcoin pioneer Adam Back. Investigation account NatInfoSec accuses Blockstream of raising billions through its Blockstream Mining Note (BMN) products, which offer high fixed yields of up to 20% from purported mining revenue. The core allegations are: 1) Blockstream's public mining hash rate (15 EH/s) appears insufficient to cover the massive payout obligations from sold BMN notes, raising questions about the true source of investor payouts. 2) Key executive Christopher William Cook, central to the mining operations, has a prior federal conviction for mail fraud, a fact not disclosed to investors. Cook's background and lavish lifestyle are highlighted as red flags. 3) The structure allows payouts from any source of BTC, not necessarily mining revenue, which critics argue gives it Ponzi-like characteristics. The controversy also touches on Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company (BSTR), a related entity planning a SPAC上市. Critics question whether BMN's liabilities and Cook's record should be disclosed in BSTR's filings. BitMEX Research offered a tempered analysis, confirming Cook's criminal record is likely true and the high yields concerning, but found other claims like insufficient抵押证据 less substantiated. Community debate centers on the need for verifiable proof of Blockstream's mining output and revenue. The article concludes that while fraud is not proven, BMN presents significant, unresolved questions regarding its actual scale, the source of its high fixed returns, the verifiability of its mining operations and payouts, and the full disclosure of associated risks and personnel backgrounds. Blockstream has not yet issued a formal response.

链捕手3h ago

The Full Story Behind Encryption Unicorn Blockstream's Deep Entanglement in Serious Fraud Allegations

链捕手3h ago

Crypto Lobby Pushes Congress To Keep Staking And Mining Tax Bill Intact

Crypto advocacy groups are urging U.S. lawmakers to pass the Tax Clarity for Mining and Staking Act (H.R. 9175) without changes. The bill seeks to clarify that rewards for proof-of-work miners and proof-of-stake validators are taxed only when the assets are sold, not immediately when received. This deferred tax treatment is crucial for operators' cash flow and profitability. The proposal faces opposition from banking interests, who argue it could give crypto yield products an unfair advantage over traditional savings. The outcome will impact network decentralization, as complex tax rules could push out smaller operators. The lobbying effort marks an expansion of crypto's policy focus beyond market structure into tax rules that underpin network economics. The bill's fate depends on whether Congress advances it as a standalone clarification or part of a broader digital-asset package.

bitcoinist4h ago

Crypto Lobby Pushes Congress To Keep Staking And Mining Tax Bill Intact

bitcoinist4h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of ETH (ETH) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions