现货以太坊ETF上市在望,吸金风暴能否再现?

jin10Published on 2024-05-24Last updated on 2024-05-24

现货以太坊ETF朝着上市迈出了重要一步,这可能会导致全球第二大最受欢迎的加密货币被主流采用。

美国证券交易委员会(SEC)批准了纽约证券交易所、芝加哥期权交易所(Cboe)和纳斯达克关于现货以太坊ETF的计划。

美国证券交易委员会批准了19b-4文件,但在现货以太坊ETF上市之前,VanEck、Ark Invest和其他基金经理等发行人的注册声明仍待批准。

投资顾问兼ETF Store总裁Nate Geraci表示他相信SEC最终会批准现货以太坊ETF的注册声明,但该机构将“放慢”这一进程

分析师表示,SEC最快可能在两周内批准注册声明,但完成这项工作可能至少需要一两个月的时间。

值得注意的是,在审批过程中,SEC对现货以太坊ETF的立场在短时间内发生了180度大转变。

几个月来,由于SEC缺乏积极回应,加密行业参与者原本对5月份的批准持悲观态度。然而,周一,该机构要求主要交易所运营商纳斯达克、芝加哥期权交易所和纽约证券交易所修改其上市现货以太坊ETF的申请,这表明监管机构可能倾向于批准此类产品。

数字资产对冲基金Lekker Capital创始人兼首席投资官Quinn Thompson表示,这一变化表明,随着美国大选的临近,政治环境对加密行业变得更加友好

周三,众议院通过了具有里程碑意义的加密货币立法,名为FIT-21,该立法将为数字资产公司建立有针对性的披露和注册制度,并把监管该行业的主要责任交给商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)而不是SEC。

该法案赢得了71张民主党选票,超过了业内消息人士本周初的预期,并得到了共和党几乎一致的支持。

拜登政府就该法案发表的声明也让人们燃起了希望,即民主党监管机构未来将对该行业采取更为温和的态度。

虽然反对FIT-21法案,但拜登政府表示,它期待与国会合作,制定定制的加密货币法规,包括“为消费者和投资者提供足够的保障,同时创造创新所需的条件”。

与此同时,根据FactSet的数据,围绕现货以太坊ETF获批的乐观情绪推动该代币价格在过去七天内上涨了约28%。然而,Thompson表示,涨势能否持续取决于ETF的资金流入是否充足。

Geraci表示,现货以太坊ETF的潜在需求可能很强劲,但远不如最近获批的现货比特币ETF。

“潜在的以太坊市场约为比特币的三分之一。我认为有理由预计现货以太坊ETF也会出现类似的情况——需求将约为现货比特币ETF的三分之一,”他说。

本周早些时候,应SEC的要求,几家潜在的现货以太坊ETF发行人修改了其文件,将ETF不会将持有的以太坊进行质押(staking),这将导致持有者无法持续获取收益。以太坊质押是指将一定数量的以太坊锁定在钱包中并参与区块链的操作,以换取奖励。

Castle Funds总裁兼首席投资官Peter Eberle指出,现货以太坊ETF取消质押可能会影响此类产品的需求,因为质押以太坊会产生额外收益。根据以太坊基金会的数据,质押以太坊目前的年回报率约为3.5%。

“如果有人是长期持有者,情况就会大不相同,”Eberle说。“而现货比特币ETF则不存在这样的劣势。”

比特币采用一种不同的共识机制,称为工作量证明(proof-of-work),其中区块链由矿工解决复杂的数学问题来维护。

Eberle表示,他也不认为机构投资者对现货以太坊ETF的需求会很大。他指出,由于以太坊和比特币的价格仍然高度相关,如果机构投资者已经投资了现货比特币ETF,那么他们就没有太大的动力去配置现货以太坊ETF。

BitGo的Go Network负责人Matt Ballensweig表示,现货以太坊ETF取消质押也可能导致套利交易,交易员可能会质押以太坊同时做空ETF。

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