SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：Et tu, ETH?

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-05-22Last updated on 2024-05-22

Abstract

在过去48小时内，加密货币市场和TradFi的游说团体都被突如其来的变化搞得措手不及，美国SEC对ETH ETF的批准突然改变了立场。ETH在不到2天内从3100飙升25%至3750美元。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：Et tu, ETH?

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：Et tu, ETH?

在过去 48 小时内，加密货币市场和 TradFi 的游说团体都被突如其来的变化搞得措手不及，美国 SEC 对 ETH ETF 的批准突然改变了立场，突然要求各 ETF 发行商更新其最新的“ 19 b-4 ”文件，并通知 NYSE 以及 CBOE 这些基金将在交易所上市，表明 ETH ETF 获得批准的可能性相当高。

作为回应， 5 家申请发行 ETF 的机构（Ark 21、Fidelity、Franklin Templeton、Invesco/Galaxy、VanEck）在过去 24 小时内更新了其 19 b-4 文件，其中 VanEck 的产品甚至已经在 DTCC 以 $ETHV 的名称列出，这个进度实在是太快了！

那么更新后的文件有什么变化呢？ETF 分析师报告称，毫不意外，SEC 要求所有发行商删除所有提及 ETH 质押的内容，因为这是该机构主张 ETH 是一种证券的主要论点，因此，最终 ETH ETF 的标的资产可能不能“质押获利”，但如果是通过中心化交易所包装，或者通过愿意支付存款利息的第三方平台来完成，又该怎么处理？最终的 S-1 文件将如何描述？这个行业果然还是律师最有优势！

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：Et tu, ETH?

ETH 当然随着消息大涨，在不到 2 天内从 3100 飙升 25% 至 3750 美元。ETH 在过去 2 年的表现相对不佳，过去 1 年中的表现大幅落后于 BTC，面临手续费下降、来自 L1-EVM 的竞争以及过度关注复杂的流动性质押和再质押等问题，夺走了 POS 前 Ethereum 最初的“稳健货币”的叙事。如今，与 BTC ETF 的批准类似，“TradFi 大佬”的加入再次有望成为 Ethereum 摆脱低谷所需的催化剂。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：Et tu, ETH?

与 1 月份不同的是，市场现在已经有了关于这些 ETF 发行如何进行的“剧本”，或至少有一个先例可供参考：

  • 自 1 月 BTC ETF 获准以来，Bitcoin 价格越来越受到 TradFi ETF 资金流入速度的推动

  • BTC 与宏观因素甚至 Nasdaq 的相关性都远高于先前周期的水平

  • BTC 在 1 月份经历了一场快速的利多兑现，从 5.7 万左右跌至约 5 万美元，随后累积的资金流入迅速将价格推至 7.2 万美元以上的新高，这次市场参与者是否还会有同样的行为？

  • 鉴于 ETH 如此不受欢迎，原生用户是否累积了足够的 ETH？与 BTC ETF 的情况不同，原先 ETH ETF 批准的可能性长期处于“微乎其微”的状态。

  • Grayscale 卖出积压与 ETF 资金流入共同作用最终会对价格产生什么影响？

  • ETH 的流通量比 BTC 小得多，我们是否应该预期 ETH 未来的净流入/流出会造成更大幅度的价格波动？

  • Larry Fink 和华尔街这次对 ETH 的推广会有多积极？

  • 随著交易量持续向美国时区转移，美国市场的影响力（年初至今创历史新高）是否会持续增长？

  • 从时程上看，距离最终 S-1 批准日期还有很长的路要走，到 ETF 推出时，宏观环境（经济和利率）是否已经发生很大变化？

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：Et tu, ETH?

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：Et tu, ETH?

说到不断变化的宏观因素，在市场等待今天 Nvidia 财报的同时，一众美联储发言人已经悄然但坚决地再次改变了他们的利率叙事，这一次又回到了鹰派立场。仅在本周和过去一周：

  • 美联储理事 Waller：“在就业市场没有显著疲软的情况下，我需要再看到几个月的良好通胀数据，才能放心支持货币政策立场的放松。”

  • 副主席 Jefferson：“现在判断近期通胀减速过程是否会持续下去还为时过早”

  • 副主席 Michael Barr：“今年第一季度的通胀数据令人失望。这些结果并没有给我带来支持放松货币政策的信心”

  • 亚特兰大联储 Bostic：“我不急于降息……我的预测是今年通胀将继续下滑，直到 2025 年”，然而他补充说，价格下降的速度将比许多人预期的更慢。

  • 克利夫兰联储 Mester：“我之前的预测是三次（降息），但根据我现在看到的经济发展，我不认为这仍然合适……我需要再看到几个月的通胀数据显示出通胀在下降”

  • 旧金山联储 Daly：目前尚不清楚通胀是否确实在减退，且不存在降息的“紧迫性”

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：Et tu, ETH?

SPX 单日跌幅不超过 2% 的时间已经来到 313 天，上一次这样的情况出现在 2016 至 2018 年，当时的纪录是连续 351 天，而最长的纪录则是 2003 至 2007 年期间，大约有 3 年的时间没有出现超过 2% 的下跌，难怪每个人都在卖出波动率。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：Et tu, ETH?

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：Et tu, ETH?

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版：Et tu, ETH?

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ，获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：SignalPlus 123）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com

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