SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-04-15Last updated on 2024-04-15

Abstract

地缘政治带来的冲突同样也影响到了数字货币,比特币在上周五从 6.9 万美元跳水至 5.9 万美元,在 48 小时内造成了超过 10 亿美元的期货多头清算。市场将之后的反弹部分归功于香港证监会(SFC)正式宣布批准比特币和以太坊现货 ETF 对市场信心带来的提振,不仅比美国早一步批准了以太坊现货 ETF,甚至还允许以实物对 ETF 进行申购和赎回。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

近日,随着对美联储降息预期的日渐消退以及中东局势的升级促使投资者转移向避险资产,美国三大股指下跌约 1.5% 左右,美元指数则一度升破 106 ,美债收益率在周末脱离高点以后再度反弹,当前两年期/十年期收益率分别为 4.94% /4.577% 。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

地缘政治带来的冲突同样也影响到了数字货币,比特币在上周五从 6.9 万美元跳水至 5.9 万美元,在 48 小时内造成了超过 10 亿美元的期货多头清算。市场将之后的反弹部分归功于香港证监会(SFC)正式宣布批准比特币和以太坊现货 ETF 对市场信心带来的提振,不仅比美国早一步批准了以太坊现货 ETF,甚至还允许以实物对 ETF 进行申购和赎回。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

Source: SignalPlus & TradingView

在此次价格下跌的过程中,数字货币的“巨鲸”们在 ETH 的低点大量买入建仓,例如一个以“0x E 34 ”开头的地址,选准了时机在最低点加仓了价值 3.15 $M 的 1000 个 ETH,整体仓位达到了 8300 ETH。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

Source: Twitter

期权方面,尽管币价已经收复接近一半失地,隐含波动率依然处在高位,ETH 在前端高出 BTC 10% Vol 左右。期限结构保持倒挂,Vol Skew 处在过去三个月的低位(25% 分位数)。

交易方面,BTC 在 19 APR 和 26 APR 出现数量可观的 Long Put Spread,或是对四月 18-20 号减半事件带来的波动作出进一步保护。另一方面,价格调整也吸引到了交易员进行逢低买入,特别是在五月底,以 Buy BTC 69000-C(850 BTC)和 ETH 3800-C(10542 ETH)为代表的看涨期权建仓成为市场焦点。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

Source: Deribit (截至 12 APR 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

Source: SignalPlus, ATM Vol 持续下滑

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

Data Source: Deribit,BTC 交易分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

Data Source: Deribit,ETH 交易分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240411):香港正式批准BTC和ETH现货ETF,币价低点反弹

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ,获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新,欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ,或者加入我们的微信群(添加小助手微信:xdengalin)、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群,和更多朋友一起交流互动。

SignalPlus Official Website:https://www.signalplus.com

欢迎加入 Odaily 官方社群

Telegram 订阅群:https://t.me/Odaily_News

Telegram交流群:https://t.me/Odaily_CryptoPunk

Twitter官方账号:https://twitter.com/OdailyChina

Trending Cryptos

Related Reads

Second Half of U.S. Crypto Policy: The Clarity Act Aims for 60 Votes, CFTC's "One-Person Commission" Becomes Biggest Variable

In a pivotal year for US crypto policy, the "CLARITY Act" is advancing in the Senate but faces a high hurdle, needing 60 votes to pass. Key challenges include bridging partisan divides on ethics and swaying undecided Republican senators within a tight legislative calendar of only about 40 working days. The policy "second half" involves intense negotiations on a broader framework for Web3 and DeFi, including crypto tax reforms and the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act. A significant uncertainty is the understaffed CFTC, operating with four commissioner vacancies, which complicates regulatory clarity. Meanwhile, the departure of key "crypto champions"—SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce and Senator Cynthia Lummis—will impact ongoing policy efforts. Industry experts are cautiously optimistic but realistic. Sara K. Weed notes that while progress is being made, CLARITY is unlikely to pass this Congress, pushing agencies like the SEC and CFTC to provide more guidance. Sulolit Mukherjee suggests meaningful crypto tax legislation is more likely to be attached to larger must-pass bills. Rashan Colbert discusses the jurisdictional debate over prediction markets, emphasizing the need for a regulatory framework that fosters their development as financial tools rather than treating them broadly as gambling. The clock is ticking, but opportunities remain for substantive progress through continued bipartisan dialogue and pragmatic efforts.

marsbit2h ago

Second Half of U.S. Crypto Policy: The Clarity Act Aims for 60 Votes, CFTC's "One-Person Commission" Becomes Biggest Variable

marsbit2h ago

Research Report Analysis: Morgan Stanley Details SanDisk SNDK, The Truth About Cloud Data Center Pricing Power and AI Inference Benefits

Morgan Stanley raised its price target for SanDisk (SNDK) from $1100 to $1750 on June 22, maintaining an Overweight rating. The upgrade is driven by AI inference demand reshaping the NAND market, particularly for KV Cache and context window storage in cloud data centers. These cloud clients exhibit price inelasticity and sign long-term contracts, granting SanDisk significant pricing power. SanDisk's New Business Model (NBM) agreements, covering over one-third of FY27 bit shipments with 3-5 year terms and fixed price/price collar structures, are crucial. They are projected to sustain gross margins around 80% even at floor prices, providing a buffer against cyclical downturns. Morgan Stanley forecasts gross margins to surge from 30.3% in FY25 to 86.7% in FY27e. With NAND supply expected to remain tight into 2026/2027 and cloud/data centers becoming the largest end-market, SanDisk holds supply-side pricing power. The company targets 15-19% bit growth via technology transitions, not capacity expansion. Revenue is projected to grow ~6.6x from FY25 to FY27, with EPS rising from $2.74 to $14.73, driven by high-margin cloud business. Key upside catalysts include faster enterprise SSD adoption and edge AI growth. Downside risks involve slower industry growth, competitor capex increases, market share loss, and competition from Chinese players like YMTC. The investment thesis rests on AI-driven structural demand, NBM's margin protection, and sustained supply tightness. The $1750 target implies ~28x FY27e P/E.

marsbit3h ago

Research Report Analysis: Morgan Stanley Details SanDisk SNDK, The Truth About Cloud Data Center Pricing Power and AI Inference Benefits

marsbit3h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

433 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.

活动图片