SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240405)：美联储官员密集放鹰，BTC冲高回落

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-04-05Last updated on 2024-04-05

Abstract

BTC在日内一度冲破69000美元之后跌回67000附近震荡，隐含波动率水平小幅上涨1～2%Vol，整体仍略低于上周5-8%Vol左右，另一方面，Vol Skew也暂未发生明显的变化，还在历史三个月数据的25分位数低水平附近。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240405)：美联储官员密集放鹰，BTC冲高回落

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240405)：美联储官员密集放鹰，BTC冲高回落

昨日（4 APR）美债收益率因服务业增速意外放缓支持了降息预期而导致其在美盘时段出现断崖式下跌，但晚些时候美联储众多要员向市场散播密集的鹰派言论，多次提到了目前通胀水平仍然过高和开始降息之前需要看到更明朗的进展这两点看法，在这之中，“鹰王”明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示在 3 月预测今年仅降息两次，且若通胀进展停止，特别是经济较强的前提下，今年可能不需要降息。如此一系列的发言使得美债收益率出现反弹，收复大半失地，当前两年期/十年期分别为 4.660% /4.337% 。美股在尾盘逆转涨势，标普/道指/纳指最终收跌-1.23% /-1.35% /-1.4% 。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240405)：美联储官员密集放鹰，BTC冲高回落

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240405)：美联储官员密集放鹰，BTC冲高回落

Source: SignalPlus & TradingView

数字货币方面，BTC 在日内一度冲破 69000 美元之后跌回 67000 附近震荡，隐含波动率水平小幅上涨 1 ～ 2% Vol，整体仍略低于上周 5-8% Vol 左右，另一方面，Vol Skew 也暂未发生明显的变化，还在历史三个月数据的 25 分位数低水平附近。

交易方面，ETH 的 Put 依然无人问津，前端位于 0.1 ～ 0.15 Delta 的看涨期权（12 APR 3700-C/19 APR 3900-C/26 APR 4000-C）遭到大量抛售；BTC 方面， 12 APR 24 70000-C 遭到强烈的抛压， 26 APR 24 以 73000 为分界点形成 Long Call Spread Flow， 6 月则收获了一组来自大宗的 20 0x 4 Long ButterFly，似乎能看到交易员们表达出的近期有限看涨观点，以及对远期波动的展望。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240405)：美联储官员密集放鹰，BTC冲高回落

Source: Deribit （截至 3A PR 16: 00 UTC+ 8）

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240405)：美联储官员密集放鹰，BTC冲高回落

Source: SignalPlus, ATM Vol

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240405)：美联储官员密集放鹰，BTC冲高回落

Source: SignalPlus, Vol Skew

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240405)：美联储官员密集放鹰，BTC冲高回落

Data Source: Deribit，ETH 交易分布， 0.1 ～ 0.15 Delta 附近的 Call 遭到抛售

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240405)：美联储官员密集放鹰，BTC冲高回落

Data Source: Deribit，BTC 交易分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240405)：美联储官员密集放鹰，BTC冲高回落

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240405)：美联储官员密集放鹰，BTC冲高回落

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240405)：美联储官员密集放鹰，BTC冲高回落

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ，获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：xdengalin）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。

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