比特币ETF十问十答：为什么监控ETF水管如此重要？

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-03-20Last updated on 2024-03-20

Abstract

关注情绪，关注数据，珍宝往往藏于转变的那一刹那。

原文作者：0xTodd（X：@0x_Todd）

编者按：为什么要关心比特币 ETF 的流入流出情况？灰度是 ETF 获批功臣，为什么偏偏它一直在流出？加密 KOL 0x Todd（X：@0x_Todd）发文简单梳理了关于比特币现货 ETF 的一些要点。Odaily星球日报整理如下：

Q：怎么查比特币 $BTC 现货 ETF 的净流入 / 流出数据？

Q：为什么要关心知道比特币 ETF 流入流出情况？

A：比特币的现货 ETF 是美股资金对 Crypto 的最重要水管。只要这条水管没有发生重大趋势反转，比特币的表现也就不会太差。

Q：真的么？ETF 这条水管带来了多少资金？

A：目前贝莱德、富达领衔， 10 支 ETF（不包括灰度）累计买入了超过 50 万枚比特币，为行业带来超过 300 亿美金流入，而且你要知道，这些全是真金白银。

数据来源：https://coinglass.com/bitcoin-etf

Q：为什么强调 “净” 流入？

A：因为灰度 $GBTC 投资者在持续赎回 BTC，即 “流出”。 算上 GBTC 流出， 11 支 ETF 的净流入仍然超过 120 亿美金。

Q：很多 ETF 已经开始流出了么？

A：基本上只有灰度在不停流出。

一些数据：

ETF 获批前，灰度 “小 ETF” 已积累 60 w+ 枚比特币；

ETF 批准两个多月，灰度仍剩下 38 w 枚比特币。

Q：灰度是 ETF 获批功臣，为什么偏偏它一直在流出？

A：两个原因。

（1）迁移需求：灰度的管理费很贵，年度管理费是 1.5% 。而其他机构一般都 0.2% -0.25% ，有的甚至还会豁免费用。

比特币ETF十问十答：为什么监控ETF水管如此重要？

（2）退出需求：灰度成立很早，$GBTC 投资者，平均建仓大概 $ 27.8 （来自：webull），现在的价格是 $ 57.4 ，已经翻倍。

比特币ETF十问十答：为什么监控ETF水管如此重要？

$GBTC 的大投资者包括已经破产的 3AC 和 FTX，它们出货动力很强。

而像贝莱德的 $iBTC，平均成本恐怕要到 $ 30 左右，而现在只有 $ 36 ，退出动力相对较小。

Q：灰度为什么不降低费用？

灰度：有计划，未来几个月逐步降费。

灰度 CEO 的辩护：我们有历史业绩证明，才敢收这个费用。其他家没历史业绩，自然要降费促销。

PS 1 ：这个诡辩有点幽默。GBTC 和 iBTC 同涨同跌暂且不表，比特币的 K 线是所有 ETF 的共同“历史业绩”。

PS 2 ：这种模糊说辞 ≈ 没有计划，走一步看一步。

PS 3 ：主要是经济账。1.5% 到 0.25% 太多了，哪怕灰度的份额降到 1/6 ，也就是再流出 30 w 枚 BTC，也是不降费赚得更多。

PS 4 ：只是可惜，投资者皆有惰性。已经在 ETF 里面放着的，就懒得再取出来；已经取出来，又懒得再放回去。所以，天量的 GBTC 赎回，很多都 “不小心” 变成了真正的抛压。

Q：GBTC 的抛压有多大呢？

A： 3 月 18 日，GBTC 提现击破记录，一天狂提 6.4 亿美金，造成了 BTC ETF 历史上为数不多的净流出日，净流出金额达到 1.5 亿美金。

比特币ETF十问十答：为什么监控ETF水管如此重要？

这可能也是昨天大跌的重要原因。

PS：做个小对比。

现在 $BTC 每天挖出 6.25 * 144 = 900 BTC； 一个月减半后变为 450 BTC。 也就是，减半才让每日抛压降低 2800 w 美金。

Q：灰度还有多少 BTC？

A： 38 w 枚，官网有披露。 https://etfs.grayscale.com/gbtc

Q：那么昨晚（3 月 19 日）如何？

A：灰度再次赎回了 4.4 亿美金 BTC，而贝莱德稍显乏力，只流入 7500 w 美金，导致了 3 亿美金流出，相比昨天有所扩大。

比特币ETF十问十答：为什么监控ETF水管如此重要？

最后，关注情绪，关注数据，珍宝往往藏于转变的那一刹那。

祝大家平稳着陆，把握脉搏。

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