比特币飙升,散户最爱的“山寨季”要来了?

Web3动向Published on 2024-03-05Last updated on 2024-03-05

Abstract

比特币飙升至 6 万美元以上,但我们持有的山寨币却涨幅落后?

比特币飙升至 6 万美元以上,但我们持有的山寨币却涨幅落后?

无需惊慌,从长远来看,大家手里的山寨币们目前正是最有利的长期投资之一。

本文就是加密研究员 Jake Pahor 的最新报告,对当下的山寨币市场做了详细的研究,并从市场周期阶段、比特币主导地位、ETH/BTC 汇率、稳定币资金流入、DeFi TVL、新散户是否入场等多个角度对此进行了深入的探究,Foresight News 对全文进行了编译。

市场周期阶段

在牛市的初期阶段,比特币往往吸收了大部分流动性并首先上涨(第一阶段),由此导致比特币的主导地位增加。

在这个时期,大多数山寨币(当然不是全部)通常表现不如比特币,实际上,这是一种健康市场的迹象。

比特币主导地位

比特币在市场的主导地位越高,我们就越有可能在之后看到漫长的山寨币 Summer。

其中 BTC 的市场主导地位在 2024 年 1 月短暂地跌破 20 周移动平均线后,已经重新回升并稳定在 55%(关键阻力位),如果突破这个阻力位,下一个阻力位可能会达到 58-60%。

最终,BTC 的市场主导地位将达到周期的峰值,并开始回落。

随着风险偏好的增加,资本将依次转向 ETH → 大盘蓝筹币 → 山寨币,「历史不会重演,但往往会押着相同的韵脚」。

ETH/BTC 汇率

现在来看看 ETH/BTC 汇率的图表数据,同样的情况发生了,只不过方向相反——自 2021 年 12 月以来,ETH/BTC 汇率一直处于长期下降趋势。

2024 年 1 月,ETH/BTC 汇率在 20 周移动平均线上方曾一度出现了假突破,让人误以为趋势开始转变。

然而,如今我们再次回落,并重新测试 20 周移动平均线的阻力位。

如果 ETH/BTC 汇率跌破之前作为关键阻力位的 0.05 ,我们可能会看到汇率价格暴跌至更低的水平。

然而,如果后续 ETH/BTC 汇率将这个 0.05 作为新的支撑位,这可能表明以太坊逐渐变得强势,并且可能标志着市场周期第二阶段的开始,这或许会与现货以太坊 ETF 的获批同时发生。

稳定币资金流入

自 2022 年以来,稳定币的市值一直处于强劲下降趋势,这与资本不断流出加密领域的熊市特征相一致。

然而,从数据上看,2023 年第四季度似乎已经形成了一个底部:

2023 年 10 月,稳定币市值= 1240 亿美元;

2024 年 2 月,稳定币市值 = 1410 亿美元;

期间共计增长 14%,所以牛市也与稳定币资金的流入密切相关。

DeFi TVL

TVL 通常被视为滞后指标,然而用于检查和了解总体趋势仍然是有用的。

自 2022 年 6 月以来,DeFi TVL 一直在一个范围内波动(350 - 650 亿美元)。然而步入 2024 年,看起来我们正在突破这一区间:

2023 年 10 月 DeFi TVL 为 360 亿美元;

2024 年 2 月 DeFi TVL 为 860 亿美元;

短短 4 个月,DeFi TVL 暴涨 239%!

新散户是否入场

场外的新散户肯定还没有入场(至少目前如此),因为我的家人和「圈外」朋友都没有给我发关于加密货币的信息,新闻上也找不到相关报道。

关于「Bitcoin」和「Crypto」的谷歌搜索趋势在 2021 年 5 月达到高峰,这也是在比特币价格达到 6.4 万美元之后。

但目前,新散户的投资兴趣仍然非常低——二者对应的得分为 19% 和 29%。

不过可以看到的是,散户的投资兴趣正在恢复增长,最直接的例证,就是由于需求过大,Coinbase 应用程序一度崩溃,并且它在应用程序商店的排名正快速攀升。

当前排名=165;

历史最低排名=500;

历史最高排名=1;

所以当它再次达到第 1 的排名时,我们无疑将处于牛市巅峰。

总的来看,我仍然不太相信 BTC 已经突破了 6 万美元,且我们距离历史高点咫尺之遥。

不过,2024 年有如此多的催化剂,我们很难不更加疯狂地看涨:BTC ETF 持续的资金流入、现货 ETH ETF 获批、比特币减半、美联储降息、美国选举年。

毫无疑问我们现在正处于牛市周期的早期阶段,资金仍主要流入比特币,接下来我们将看到资金流入以太坊,然后流入山寨币。

因此,现在绝对是加倍努力并为不可避免的山寨季做好准备的时候了。

不管你做什么,现在都不要卖掉你的山寨币组合,大多数人只需保持现状并保持冷静,直至达到牛市巅峰状态即可——你只需在预计会出现疯狂波动与上涨的过程中获利了结。

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