Chainalysis:撒哈拉以南非洲地区加密货币采用现状如何?

区块律动Published on 2023-10-08Last updated on 2023-10-08

Abstract

区块链与加密货币技术的出现不仅能够让人们购买 NFT 数字艺术品,在 Metaverse 中与玩家互动,在 GameFi 的游戏玩法中赚钱,它还提供了最本质的去中心化点对点支付方案,这些快捷、便利的 Web3 支付解决方案正在改变我们当今的支付方式,乃至整个金融市场。

虽然富裕国家的居民可能比新兴市场的居民交易更多的加密货币,但后者对加密货币的日常需求更大,这与比特币和整个行业的最初愿景非常一致。

加密货币运营商利用非洲地区在政策上支持的态度进入市场。

与前几年类似,撒哈拉以南的非洲地区是最小的加密经济体,占 2022 年 7 月至 2023 年 6 月全球交易量的 2.3%。在此期间,该地区估计累计交易了 1171 亿美元的链上价值。

在调查累计交易价值时,中心化交易所是最常用的平台类型,贡献了超一半的交易量。撒哈拉以南地区的加密货币市场也比大多数地区有更多的小额订单。与其他地区相比,交易价值低于 100 万美元的交易所占份额更大。

尽管撒哈拉以南的非洲地区加密货币交易量不高。但仔细的分析表示,加密货币的渗透率相当高,并成为许多居民日常生活的重要组成部分。没有哪个国家比尼日利亚更好地体现了这一点,尼日利亚在全球加密货币采用指数中排名第二。

公民涌向比特币和美元稳定币以抵御通货膨胀和债务危机

没有哪个地区的 BTC ,比撒哈拉以南的非洲地区更占主导地位。因为 BTC 交易量所占的份额比其他任何地区都要高。

撒哈拉以南非洲地区的居民可能正在转向所谓的数字黄金(BTC)作为替代货币价值储存的手段。

该地区许多的国家存在不断上升的通货膨胀和债务危机,这使得加密货币成为一种有吸引力的价值储存手段,例如保存储蓄和实现更大的金融自由。

例如在加纳,通货膨胀率连续 13 个月上涨,于 2022 年 6 月达到 20 年来的最高水平:29.8%。由于金融机会相对较少,许多加纳人采用了比特币。尼日利亚、肯尼亚和南非近年来都面临着类似的问题,并且大量的民众在采用加密货币,这并不是市场发展的巧合。

当地的专家告诉我们,一些市场参与者已经从比特币转向稳定币的使用。因为稳定币的价格波动性比 BTC 小的多,同时比特币的价格远远低于历史高点。

总部位于尼日利亚的加密货币交易所 Busha 的联合创始人兼 CPO Moyo Sodipo 说:「当 Busha 在 2019 年迅速发展时时,比特币被很多人追捧。很多人最初并不接受稳定币。但现在进入熊市,人们希望在比特币和稳定币之间有更多的选择。但市场变化并没有抑制经济活动。人们不断寻找机会来对冲奈拉贬值和自 COVID 以来持续的经济衰退。」

聚焦:尼日利亚是非洲最大的加密经济体

尼日利亚拥有撒哈拉以南非洲最多的人口和最大的经济体,也是该区域最大的加密货币经济体。尽管进入了熊市,但尼日利亚的加密经济仍在继续增长。其加密货币交易量持续同比正增长。9.0% 的增长率在这六个国家中排名第三。

加密货币是尼日利亚经济问题的解决方案之一。自 2016 年以来,尼日利亚经历了两次重大经济衰退,政治局势不稳定,COVID-19 和油价暴跌。因此,所有年龄段的尼日利亚人都面临着高失业率,2021 年有超过 2000 万人在寻找工作,许多人迁移到其他国家。

最近的奈拉危机加剧了这些问题。2022 年,尼日利亚中央银行宣布打算重新设计奈拉货币并发行新纸币,以打击通货膨胀和假币,并控制流通货币的数量。

由此产生的现金短缺给没有银行账户的人带来了麻烦,并引发了旧纸币价值的不确定性,不稳定的经济环境鼓励许多公民寻求金融替代方案,给了加密货币拓展市场的机会。

这些变化反映在数据中,随着奈拉价值的下降,大家对 Crypto 的兴趣普遍上升。2022 年 5 月和 11 月左右的高峰值可能是用户寻求利用 TerraLuna 和 FTX 崩溃分别引发的波动进行交易,而不是当地的经济形势。

与此同时,该地区对山寨币的兴趣一直在增加。

Moyo Sodipo 解释说:「在市场黑天鹅期间,我们看到了购币狂潮。当有一个新的 memecoin,如 Dogecoin 或 Shiba,就会引发购买狂潮。总有人会对一个似乎能让你赚几千美元的代币感兴趣。」下图显示了山寨币活动的增加,以及每月稳定币价值的比例。

监管政策的完善为大规模采用铺垫了道路

监管政策的完善为撒哈拉以南的非洲交易所带来了新的发展。2022 年底,金融行为监管局(FSCA)宣布了加密货币业务的许可制度,并宣布加密资产是金融产品,这使其具有更高的法律支持,并使金融调查人员能够更好地打击该领域的非法活动。

该国积极的态度降低了无监管的不确定性,鼓励了数字代币的交易。事实上,该国公民近年来已经交易了价值数十亿美元的数字货币。

根据南非交易所 Luno 非洲区总经理 Marius 的说法,目前,南非加密货币的主要用例围绕着投资。在过去的 3 年里,在 Luno 上持有加密货币的客户数量增加了近 50% 。他补充说:「在完善的监管市场中,我们倾向于为 Crypto 的行业发展负责,因为市场在明面上发展。监管机构和交易所之间的互动更加透明。但无论有没有监管,加密行业都将继续增长。制定一些法规来保护消费者,为所有人创造一个更安全的运营环境,这符合每个人的利益。」

肯尼亚中央银行(CBK)也一直在探索加密货币,在领导人考虑实施 CBDC 时,也发布了关于潜在波动风险的声明。2023 年初政府提出了一项法案,倡导对数字货币进行一致的证券定义,并由持牌加密交易商进行记录保存。同一时间,尼日利亚政府批准了一项国家区块链政策,帮助区块链进入法律框架,强调区块链的采用可以使国家受益。

在加密货币交易量落后于肯尼亚的毛里求斯,2021 年的《虚拟资产和首次代币发行服务法》为代币发行提供了全面的立法支持。该国致力于保护消费者,促进加密货币的采用并吸引交易商,而该地区的其他国家则对某些加密货币相关活动发布了明确的禁令。

最近一系列政策颁布,有助于非洲当地的加密货币行业发展。如上所述,最大的非洲国家制定许多最重要的加密法规,都是在 2023 年初。下面的图表,比较了撒哈拉以南地区使用本地,本土加密货币交易所的情况。

表明支持的政策态度,给消费者带来信心,以及当地加密企业遵守法规带来的安全环境,是 2023 年初以来非洲当地交易所在该地区增长速度超过国际竞争对手的部分原因。

撒哈拉以南非洲的加密经济下一步是什么?

加密货币的未来很光明。尼日利亚这样的大国已经成为加密货币采用的全球领导者,当地透明度的提高推动增长,加密货币运营商将利用这一点进入市场。

多年来研究新兴市场的经验告诉我们:虽然富裕国家的居民可能比新兴市场的居民交易更多的加密货币,但后者对加密货币的日常需求更大,这与比特币和整个行业的最初愿景非常一致。

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