推动比特币牛市的发动机：灰度诉讼、以太坊期货ETF及比特币现货ETF

PanewsPublished on 2023-08-30Last updated on 2023-08-30

Abstract

随着最困难时期过去，比特币牛市正成为市场期望的焦点。

作者：Greg Cipolaro，NYDIG 全球研究主管
编译：WEEX 唯客
本文要点：

Grayscale 与 SEC 之间关于将 GBTC 转换为 ETF 的官司，预计将在未来几个月内做出裁决。
华尔街机构纷纷加入 ETF 申请队伍，尽管市场通常只青睐先行者，而且并非所有产品都具有经济可行性。
最近的价格走势验证了 6 个月前观察到的金叉模型——短期价格表现不佳，但长期来看有升值潜力。

对灰度案件作出裁决的期望先升后降
上周二，人们对 Grayscale（灰度）与美国证券交易委员会（SEC）之间就灰度试图将其比特币信托基金（GBTC）转换为 ETF 的法律案件做出裁决的期望有所升温，但最终落空。
2023 年 3 月 7 日，华盛顿特区巡回上诉法院听取了灰度的口头辩论，灰度请求复审 SEC 拒绝其于 2022 年 6 月 29 日首次提交的寻求 GBTC 股票在纽交所 Arca 上市的变更令。据灰度 CEO Michael Sonnenshein 称，三人法官小组预计将在未来几个月内对此做出裁决，而我们所知道的最准确时间是「秋季结束前」。
现实情况是，无法准确预测此类法律裁决的确切时间。仅从 8 月份发布的案件信息来看，从案件辩论到法院做出裁决的观察范围很广，影响法院裁决时间的因素也很多，其中许多是外人无法观察到的——意见的一致、其他紧急事务的时间安排、差旅等等，不一而足。

华盛顿特区巡回上诉法院 8 月份案件
通过 8 月份裁决的观测值范围（最小值、平均值、最大值），我们可以推断，灰度案件的裁决最早应于 5 月 6 日做出，平均应于 9 月 13 日做出，最晚应于 2024 年 1 月 30 日做出。
编者注：根据华盛顿特区巡回上诉法院披露的 8 月份案件情况，一个案件从口头辩论到法院做出裁决的天数，最短需要 60 天，最长 329 天，平均 190 天，中位数是 180 天。据此测算，法院就灰度与 SEC 之间的案子（2023 年 3 月 7 日听取口头辩论）做出裁决的最早时间为 3 月 7日 + 60 天 = 5 月 6 日；以此类推，平均日期、最晚日期分别 + 190 天和 329 天。
平均日期 9 月中旬的情况似乎与灰度 CEO 「秋季结束前」的预期相符。然而，我们非常肯定的是，仅 8 月一个月的案件进度表并不是一个具有代表性的样本，不能据此得出有关时间安排的结论。鉴于此，我们将继续关注法院在未来几周或几个月内发布的信息，这类信息一般在周二和周五发布，但没有具体日期。我们唯一可以确定的是，法院终有一天会做出裁决，而随着时间一天天过去，我们离这个日期也越来越近。
华尔街是「堆叠应用程序」
「Stacking sats」是比特币持有者的行业术语，他们不断增加比特币余额（sats 是 satoshi 的缩写，是比特币的最小可分割单位）。随着 ETF 申请越来越多，上周又增加了 4 个，用我们半开玩笑的话说，华尔街似乎正在「堆叠应用程序」（stacking apps.）。
据我们不完全统计，目前有 17 个 '40 法案基金（根据 1940 年投资公司法注册的基金，编者注）和 8 只 '33 法案 ETF（根据 1933 年证券法注册的 ETF，编者注），以及灰度比特币信托转换申请。如果华尔街能够如愿，投资者可获得的资金供应量将激增。
在这种情况下，我们想知道市场需求情况。虽然我们确信需求终将会出现，特别对于那些让投资者接触到全新产品（例如现货 ETF）的基金而言，但这些产品往往具有赢者通吃的特点，并且有利于先行者。除非这些产品在分销、收费或投资策略方面有足够的差异化，否则这么多同类产品不太可能具有经济可行性。
期货 ETF 申请名单
1. Valkyrie BTC & ETH 策略 ETF，投资标的：BTC 和 ETH 期货，申请时间：8/4/23，预计生效日期：10/3/23
2. Volatility Shares ETH 策略 ETF，投资标的：ETH 期货，申请时间：7/28/23，预计生效日期：10/11/23
3. Bitwise 以太坊策略 ETF，投资标的：ETH 期货，申请时间：8/1/23，预计生效日期：10/15/23
4. Roundhill ETH 策略 ETF，投资标的：ETH 期货，申请时间：8/1/23，预计生效日期：10/15/23
5. Van Eck 以太坊 ETF，投资标的：ETH 期货，申请时间：8/1/23，预计生效日期：10/15/23
6. Proshares ETH 策略 ETF，投资标的：ETH 期货，申请时间：8/1/23，预计生效日期：10/15/23
7. Proshares 空头 ETH 策略 ETF，投资标的：ETH 期货，申请时间：8/1/23，预计生效日期：10/15/23
8. Grayscale 以太坊期货 ETF，投资标的：ETH 期货，申请时间：8/1/23，预计生效日期：10/15/23
9. Proshares BTC & ETH 策略 ETF，投资标的：BTC & ETH 期货，申请时间：8/2/23，预计生效日期：10/16/23
10. Direxion 比特币以太坊策略 ETF，投资标的：BTC & ETH 期货，申请时间：8/2/23，预计生效日期：10/16/23
11. Bitwise BTC & ETH 等权重策略 ETF，投资标的：BTC & ETH 期货，申请时间：8/3/23，预计生效日期：10/17/23
12. Bitwise BTC & ETH 市值权重策略 ETF，投资标的：BTC & ETH 期货，申请时间：8/3/23，预计生效日期：10/17/23
13. Proshares BTC & ETH 等权重策略 ETF，投资标的：BTC & ETH 期货，申请时间：8/3/23，预计生效日期：10/17/23
14. ARK 21Shares 主动型比特币期货 ETF，投资标的：BTC 期货，申请时间：8/11/23，预计生效日期：10/25/23
15. ARK 21Shares 主动型链上比特币策略 ETF，投资标的：BTC 期货，申请时间：8/11/23，预计生效日期：10/25/23
16. ARK 21Shares 数字资产 & 区块链策略 ETF，投资标的：BTC 期货 & 股票，申请时间：8/11/23，预计生效日期：10/25/23
17. Valkyrie 以太坊策略 ETF，投资标的：ETH 期货，申请时间：8/16/23，预计生效日期：10/30/23
现货 BTC ETF 申请名单
Ark21SharesBTCETF，交易所：Cboe，6月15日、8月13日已延迟两次，预计接下来审核时间：11/11/23、1/10/24（编者注：最多4次240天审核期限，最后一次审核将做出最终批准/否决的决定）
BitwiseBTCETP信托，交易所：NYSEArca，7月18日已延迟一次，预计接下来审核时间：9/1/23、10/16/23、1/14/24、3/14/24
iSharesBTC信托（纳斯达克）、InvescoGalaxyBTCETF（CboeBZX）、VanEckBTC信托（CboeBZX）、WisdomTreeBTC信托（CboeBZX）、WiseOriginBTC信托（CboeBZX）5只产品于7月19日同一天被做出延迟决定，预计接下来审核时间：9/2/23、10/17/23、1/15/24、3/15/24（比BitwiseBTCETP信托晚3天）
ValkyrieBTC基金，交易所：纳斯达克，7月21日已延迟一次，预计接下来审核时间：9/4/23、10/19/23、1/17/24、3/17/24（比上述iSharesBTC信托等5只产品晚3天）
回顾旧的技术信号
我们不会在本文花太多时间来讨论技术分析，但我们研究的一组信号是交叉，特别是金叉和死叉。交叉是指一条移动平均线穿过另一条不同时间周期的移动平均线。本次出现的金叉是 50 日移动平均线向上穿过 200 日移动平均线。上一次金叉出现在 2 月份，我们在撰写相关文章时注意到，它更像是一个积极的长期指标，而短期表现好坏参半，甚至是负面的。
自上一次金叉出现（未出现死叉）过去了 6 个月，最近出现的交叉似乎继续证实了我们之前的观察：金叉在短期（7 天和 30 天周期）中似乎是负面指标，而在长期（90 天以上）似乎是积极指标。当然，我们还没有看到比特币距离最近一次交叉 360 天后的走势。

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