比特币脱离超卖区——下一步是什么?

Tap Chi BitcoinPublished on 2023-05-29Last updated on 2023-05-29

Abstract

从技术角度来看,比特币的波动性似乎正在缩小。最近,尤其是在 5 月 25 日,价格离开了触及布林带 (BB) 下轨的区域。 此举意味着BTC已退出超卖区,即使价格不在上限附近。截至发稿时,相对强弱指数 (RSI) 为 43.02,高于 5 月 24 日的 38.36

在 7 天内,比特币的价值下跌了 7.14%,同时在 26,700 美元区域附近盘整。然而,根据 Gert van Lagen 发布的一条推文,松一口气的日子可能就要到了。这一预测似乎是正确的,因为今天价格上涨了近 2%,交易价格为 27,189 美元。

根据技术分析师的说法, BTC在 200 天简单移动平均线(SMA)下方形成了一个“完美”的头肩形态底部。这导致熊市底部为看涨交叉做准备。

资料来源:格特范拉根

交易员用来识别价格反转的看跌头肩形态具有三个峰值,中间的顶部高于其余部分。在这种情况下, BTC可能会逆转上升趋势。

但根据拉根的图表,这种模式描绘了一个从下到上的趋势。这是因为中间的顶点相对于边缘下降得非常低。这标志着下跌趋势的结束。

在他的最新观察之前,这位分析师指出了冲动、修正和历史衰退高峰的趋势。他指出,这就是BTC的现状。

5 月 20 日,他表示,比特币可以匹配很大程度的看涨走势,正如 Elliotwave 冲动所描述的那样。

资料来源:格特范拉根

有趣的是,拉根并不是唯一持乐观态度的人。在 5 月 26 日关于 CryptoQuant 的出版物中, BTC正在形成类似于 2022 年 11 月看跌峰值的退出点的看涨背离。

资料来源:CryptoQuant

投资者和分析师还指出,该交易所的负净流量是短期看涨走势的另一个原因。当指标为负时,表示流出超过流入。

因此,当这种情况持续存在时,可能是积累并转变为资产价格上涨趋势的迹象。

资料来源:CryptoQuant

从技术角度来看,比特币的波动性似乎正在缩小。最近,尤其是在 5 月 25 日,价格离开了触及布林带 (BB) 下轨的区域。

此举意味着BTC已退出超卖区,即使价格不在上限附近。截至发稿时,相对强弱指数 (RSI) 为 43.02,高于 5 月 24 日的 38.36。

虽然小幅上涨代表远离下行趋势,但买家需要抵消卖家的主导地位以加强潜在的上涨趋势。

资料来源: TradingView

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