美联储关键“央行周”来临,FOMC高官又放鹰?

华尔街见闻Published on 2023-03-06Last updated on 2023-03-06

Abstract

美联储关键“央行周”来临,美联储官员一致认为,利率应该更高且在高位持续更久。

近期通胀数据高于预期加剧了美联储加息压力,美联储官员一致认为,利率应该更高且在高位持续更久。

上周六,2024年拥有美联储FOMC投票权的旧金山联储主席戴利(Mary Daly)在普林斯顿大学的演讲中表示,美联储显然还有更多的工作要做。为了摆脱高通胀时期,进一步、持续较长时间的紧缩政策可能是必要的。

戴利说,商品、住房和其他服务等各个领域的通胀都很高,而即将公布的数据起伏不定,让通胀回落势头变得不明朗。

戴利指出,近年来美国和全球经济发生了结构性变化,疫后全球通胀水平出现了明显的抬升。戴利表示,需要关注以下三大趋势:

第一个趋势是“全球价格竞争”的下降。

⠀⠀

另一个趋势是“美国劳动力短缺”,找工作的美国人越来越少,移民人数也越来越少。

第三个是向“绿色经济”的过渡,需要对新工艺和基础设施进行投资,公司希望将成本转嫁给消费者。

戴利警告称:

通胀预期仍在控制之中,但也可能开始走高。如果旧的动态被其他新的影响所掩盖,通胀压力开始向上而不是向下,那么美联储可能需要做更多的工作。

戴利发表上述言论之前,美国央行其他高官也发表了一系列鹰派言论,明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示,利率最终可能需要高于他在12月份认为足够的5.4%水平;美联储理事沃勒指出,通胀下降的速度没有其想象的那么快,并对进一步加息持开放态度。

值得一提的是, 美联储关键“央行周”来临,周二美联储主席鲍威尔将在国会发表货币政策证词,本周五美国将发布2月非农报告,下周二公布2月份CPI,最后美联储将在3月22日公布利率决议和新的季度利率预测。

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