Delphi Digital:为什么现在不要抛售BLUR?

Odaily星球日报Published on 2023-02-24Last updated on 2023-02-24

Abstract

“Blur合理的完全稀释估值大概会在20-30亿美元之间。”

原文作者:Jack、FYJ,BlockBeats

本月 14 日,纽约州金融服务部命令加密金融机构 Paxos Trust Co. 停止发行更多的 BUSD Token,曾经市值前三的稳定币巨头就此宣告结束自己的统治。这个背靠全球最大交易所的「Libra 继承人」,在短短 4 年里从零到亿再到百亿,又随一纸传闻匆匆推出稳定币的竞争舞台,我们不妨一起回顾一下这个「币圈强盛」的起起落落。

启明星

2019 年 8 月 19 日的下午,Binance 发布一篇重要公告,宣布启动「启明星计划」(Project Venus)。该计划旨在打造出一个「独立自主的区域版 Libra」,这里的 Libra,即 Facebook 曾经的大型稳定币支付计划。

金星(Venus)是天秤座(Libra)的守护星,简白明了的计划名称映射出 Binance 昭然若揭的野心。Binance 在公告中指出,尽管 Libra 最终失败,但其概念正在全球迅速蔓延,各国政府都应尽早确立区块链和数字稳定币的战略地位,建立沙盒机制、引入民营企业发行数字稳定币。

公告没有提及该稳定币计划的运作细节,只是反复倡议各领域的伙伴加入自己的阵营中来。为了吸引更多合作伙伴,Binance 也宣布不会使用 BSC 链作为该稳定币的生态基础。不难看出,启明星计划并非是 Libra 这样的技术创新,Binance 早已从中汲取了教训,将重心放在了监管与合规上。

启明星计划宣布同年,Binance 找到了自己理想的合规外壳——Paxos。Paxos 是一家总部位于纽约的金融机构和技术公司,此前就已经发行了 USDP、GUSD 等稳定币资产,均获得纽约州金融服务部(NYDFS)的监管绿灯,就合规方面而言表现十分亮眼。

在与 Binance 的合作中,Paxos 扮演 BUSD 在以太坊上的发行实体,BUSD 则是以太坊上发行的 ERC-20 Token,其储备金存放在 Paxos 的美国银行账户中。BUSD 推出后,NYDFS 也迅速批准放行,BUSD 也成为继 GUSD 和 PAX 后,Paxos 在华尔街监管机构通过批准的又一个稳定币项目。

突破监管困境的 Binance 没有丝毫犹豫,踩死油门,将启明星计划送上了「登月火箭」:

2020 年 3 月 10 日,不到一年的时间,BUSD 的市值便达到 1 亿美元。同年 8 月 6 日,BUSD 再次被列入 NYDFS 批准的绿名单。

2021 年 1 月,不到两年时间,BUSD 市值突破 10 亿美元,实现了对 USDP、TUSD 等竞争对手的赶超。

2022 年 9 月,尽管加密市场早已转熊,但 BUSD 却丝毫不受影响,市值一度触及 200 亿美元,两年内市值增长 20 倍。

自此,BUSD 与 USDT、USDC 一道,成为稳定币领域的立鼎三足之一。但 BUSD 虽然成就非凡,Binance 对其的野心却远非于此。毕竟与金星相比,到达月球顶多算是一个起点。

加密党卫军

在 BUSD 市值触及 200 亿美元后不久,Binance 于 9 月 5 日宣布将停止使用 USDC、USDP 和 TUSD 三种与 BUSD 竞争的稳定币,全球最大的交易平台正式与稳定币巨头 USDC 宣战。Delphi Digital NFT 研究员 yh.ΞTH 在社交媒体发文解释了为什么说现在出售此前从空投中获得的 BLUR 代币是一个“错误”,以及为什么说 Blur 的竞价池模式是 NFT 市场游戏规则的改变者。Odaily星球日报将相关内容编译如下,要注意的是,BLUR 近期火热,投资需谨慎,DYOR。

Blur 竞价池模式是 NFT 市场游戏规则的改变者

对于 NFT 市场而言,最重要的产品体验是什么?答案很简单:能让用户轻松购买和出售 NFT。现阶段,NFT 市场大部分交易都来自于巨鲸,他们最想做的事情就是在进行大额出售时交易处理速度更快、大额购买时能匹配到更低的价格。

与 DeFi 领域相比,当前 NFT 的交易体验不太尽如人意。在 Blur NFT 市场出现之前,NFT 交易用户体验很糟糕,并且也没有对专业大额交易市场进行优化,而 NFT 交易至少需要具备与 DeFi 一样的体验和可用性。

除了体验之外,当前 NFT 还有另一个痛点:流动性。之前加密行业也探索过许多方式来尝试解决这个问题,比如碎片化 NFT、资产代币化、以及其他激励(如交易量/上架奖励)等,但效果并不明显,NFT 流动性依然非常薄弱。

举个例子,如果你今天想立即卖掉 20 枚 Doodles NFT 几乎是不可能的,整个交易可能需要几天、甚至几周时间才能完成。不仅如此,一旦交易时间被拉长,还可能面临 NFT 地板价出现螺旋式下跌的风险,导致交易者不得不重新调整交易价格。

那么,NFT 市场 Blur 做了哪些优化改进呢?实际上,Blur 引入了一个投标积分系统(Bid Points System),也就是所谓的竞价池 Blur Bidding Pool,这个系统让 Blur 的“出价挖矿(bid mining)”模型变成了一种流动性资金池交易,用户其实是在向流动性资金池提供 ETH 流动性(注意,不是 WETH!),这种模式其实和 Uniswap 在 DeFi 领域中的自动化做市模式(AMM)创新非常相似。一旦投标被接受,Blur 的投标系统就会给提供流动性的用户给予激励——空投 BLUR 代币,同时也将承担一定程度的 NFT 价格风险。

相比之下,OpenSea、LooksRare、以及 X2Y2 目前采用的都是挂单交易模式,导致平台流动性较差或不准确,而 Blur 则看准了市场痛点并找到正确的解决之道,构建出一个专注于优质产品体验的 NFT 交易平台,普通用户可以在 Blur 市场上获得比 OpenSea 更深的流动性,巨鲸也能无摩擦地进行大额 NFT 交易。

为什么说现在抛售 BLUR 不是好选择?

BLUR 代币的发布,意味着其团队开始将协议价值分配的权力转移到社区。不夸张地说,Blur 在去中心化治理方面是 NFT 领域里最成功的项目之一。根据 Blur 的代币经济模式,BLUR 代币总发行量为 3.6 亿枚,其中 12% 将会被分配给社区,那么剩下的代币将如何规划呢?

第一轮空投中,大部分 BLUR 代币已被认领,代币交易额也达到了十亿美元级别,想要出售空投的用户现在应该已经卖出了,代币被转移到更“远期主义”的人手中。在这种情况下,BLUR 代币第一年的抛售压力可能很高,因为到今年年底,流通供应量将增加近 3 倍,达到 10 亿枚。即便如此,大部分代币仍归社区所有,投资者/团队分配也有 4 年以上的限制期。

毫无疑问,Blur 已成为当今 NFT 市场的典型代表,但同时也是对行业未来发展的“押注”,因为当 NFT 藏品整体上涨时,Blur 就会受益。假设 Blur 成为未来 NFT 市场领导者,鉴于 OpenSea 高达 130 亿美元的估值,Blur 合理的完全稀释估值大概会在 20-30 亿美元之间。截至目前,全球最大加密交易所币安至今仍未上架 BLUR,但只要 Blur 继续保持其销售优势并进一步“攫取”市场竞争力,登陆币安也许只是一个时间问题。

此外,如果 Blur 市场竞争力持续增强,后续很可能也会吸引更多外部融资,倘若 OpenSea 想要与之竞争,就不得不在版税和特许权使用费成本方面做出妥协(事实上 OpenSea 已经这么做了),但如果想在流动性方面和 Blur 一较高下则必须转向与其一致的竞价池模式,这对 OpenSea 而言似乎难度极大。更重要的是,构建新产品很可能会引入 Bug,甚至可能完全破坏 OpenSea 的现有架构,加上监管背景和潜在的 IPO 上市计划,OpenSea 不太可能调整现有挂单模式,毕竟从投资者和商业角度来看大动干戈的意义不大。

坦率地说,Blur 联合创始人@PacmanBlur 带领的团队对 NFT 市场的了解很深,或许比 OpenSea 更了解这个市场,而 LooksRare 和 X2Y2 则专注于通过提供激励来刺激交易量而没有关注最重要的事情:流动性。相反,Looksrare 和 X2Y2 使用的模型只会不断“鼓励”虚假交易,对改善产品体验毫无帮助。换句话说,这些平台只能吸引想要分红的 NFT 散户交易者,当然这并不是批评指责,毕竟每个人都想追逐利润。

总结

NFT 是一个双向市场,只要用户体验一流且被团队放在首位,用户就会对平台保持粘性。所以产品体验才是重中之重,OpenSea 就是一个典型的例子。当然,即使没有代币,用户也会继续使用 OpenSea——直到 Blur 出现了。

Blur 团队本身直到目前依然没有实现盈利,这并不是说他们没有能力去尝试盈利模式,而是因为其 NFT 市场费用仍设置为 0% ,由此也可以看出 Blur 将产品体验放在了首位,而没有考虑其他问题。好在 Blur 团队已经在 2022 年 3 月顺利完成由 Paradigm 领投的 1100 万美元种子轮融资,让他们有足够底气专注于解决 NFT 市场痛点。现在的问题是,当 Blur 空投和代币激励结束之后又该如何维持其流动性深度呢?这是一个好问题,Blur 团队其实也非常清楚这一点,预计后续会针对长期增长进行优化。

Trending Cryptos

Related Reads

Only 153 Venture Capital Firms Invested in July: Is the Crypto VC Industry Experiencing a 'Mass Extinction'?

In July 2026, only 153 unique venture capital firms participated in disclosed crypto funding rounds, marking the lowest monthly count since November 2020. This figure represents an 87% decline from the peak of 1,177 firms in 2022. Overall, the first seven months of 2026 saw crypto projects raise approximately $11.78 billion across 481 rounds. This crypto VC contraction contrasts sharply with the broader venture capital landscape, where global VC investment reached a record $560.4 billion in H1 2026, heavily fueled by major AI company financings. This shift in capital allocation has drawn funds away from the crypto sector. Within crypto, funding is highly concentrated. Trading platforms, prediction markets, and payment sectors absorbed 53% of the total capital. While early-stage deals remain frequent, the largest sums flow to a few late-stage rounds and mergers & acquisitions, which surged to $7.23 billion in Q2 2026. The market is consolidating around top funds like a16z crypto and Dragonfly, which successfully raised new multi-billion dollar funds, while many smaller firms have retreated. Analysts describe this as a "great extinction" for crypto VCs, where capital is becoming more selective, favoring proven business models and assets over early-stage speculation. This raises the bar for project quality, funding efficiency, and viable exit paths.

marsbit9m ago

Only 153 Venture Capital Firms Invested in July: Is the Crypto VC Industry Experiencing a 'Mass Extinction'?

marsbit9m ago

Strategy's Loss in the Second Quarter Reaches $8.22 Billion Amid Bitcoin Decline

Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, reported a net loss of $8.22 billion for the second quarter. This loss was primarily driven by an $8.32 billion unrealized loss on its Bitcoin holdings due to a decline in the asset's price during the period. Despite these paper losses, the company increased its Bitcoin holdings to 843,775 BTC, a 25% growth since the start of the year. As part of a new monetization strategy, Strategy sold approximately $218.4 million worth of Bitcoin, mainly to fund dividends for preferred shareholders, with $216 million of that sold after Q2 ended. The company also built a $3.75 billion cash reserve, which it claims is sufficient to cover over two years of dividend and interest payments, aiming to insulate itself from Bitcoin's volatility while meeting obligations. Following the earnings release, Strategy's stock (MSTR) rose 4.7% in regular trading but corrected slightly after-hours. This pattern reflects how the company's accounting results are heavily tied to Bitcoin's price swings, even as its long-term strategy remains unchanged. The report indicates that Strategy is maintaining its core strategy of accumulating Bitcoin while building a financial buffer. This quarterly loss follows a recognizable pattern, with the company posting significant unrealized losses in previous quarters (e.g., $12.4 billion in Q4 2025 and ~$12.5 billion in Q1 2026) due to fair-value accounting. A key technical shift is its new monetization program, which introduces periodic selling pressure on the market, transitioning Strategy from a pure accumulator to a participant that occasionally adds supply. A critical question remains: how long can the cash reserve cover dividend obligations if a Bitcoin price downturn persists beyond two years?

cryptonews.ru29m ago

Strategy's Loss in the Second Quarter Reaches $8.22 Billion Amid Bitcoin Decline

cryptonews.ru29m ago

Will Terrorist Durov Ban Russian Officials?

Telegram founder Pavel Durov publicly reacted to being labeled a "terrorist" by Russian authorities, stating the designation came after he refused demands for mass surveillance and censorship on the platform. In a Telegram post, he highlighted that this status formally bans him from "publishing information online." Durov concluded with a statement widely circulated: Russian officials "clearly don't understand who can ban whom on the internet." This remark suggests Durov could potentially restrict official Russian government and officials' channels on Telegram, which continue to operate on the platform despite its formal blocking in Russia. The situation parallels previous, slow-moving state directives, like switching officials to domestic cars, contrasted with the current push to migrate all government communication to the Russian-made messenger MAX by 2030. However, reports indicate many officials still use Telegram via workarounds, fearing surveillance on MAX, while alternatives like BiP and KakaoTalk recently became inaccessible in Russia without a VPN. Durov has not specified any immediate actions against state channels. His statement is an initial response, with further developments depending on the authorities' reaction. The dynamic differs from 2020 when Russian regulators lifted a block on Telegram; now, Durov implies control from within the platform itself over the official accounts that persisted through that earlier blockade.

cryptonews.ru29m ago

Will Terrorist Durov Ban Russian Officials?

cryptonews.ru29m ago

DeepSeek V4 Official Version Arrives, New Capabilities Emerge, Value-for-Money King Enters the Fray

On July 31st, DeepSeek officially launched the public API beta for its DeepSeek-V4-Flash model. A key highlight is its performance on multiple Agent benchmark tests, reportedly nearing or even surpassing the level of the V4-Pro preview version from three months ago. Notably, the Flash model achieves this with significantly smaller scale (130B active parameters vs. Pro's 490B), suggesting that post-training optimization and data quality may be as crucial as raw model size. DeepSeek emphasized that the V4-Flash-0731 uses the same model architecture and size as its preview version, with improvements attributed solely to "re-trained post-training." The update also marks the official debut of DeepSeek's self-developed Agent framework, "Harness." The move signals DeepSeek's strategic push to position its cost-effective Flash model as a competitive base for Agent applications—scenarios requiring autonomous planning, tool usage, and complex task execution—where inference speed and cost are critical. By natively supporting OpenAI's Responses API format and adapting for code-generation scenarios, DeepSeek aims not just to be a cheaper alternative but to establish its own ecosystem in the Agent era. This release follows DeepSeek's record-breaking ~$50 billion fundraising round roughly two months prior, underscoring market confidence in its technology and commercialization prospects. The company is reportedly preparing for another funding round at a valuation of approximately $71 billion. The Flash model's advancement represents a step in fulfilling the high expectations that come with this valuation, setting the stage for the impending release of the V4-Pro official version and intensifying competition in the global Agent landscape.

marsbit33m ago

DeepSeek V4 Official Version Arrives, New Capabilities Emerge, Value-for-Money King Enters the Fray

marsbit33m ago

Trading

Spot

Hot Articles

How to Buy BLUR

Welcome to HTX.com! We've made purchasing Blur (BLUR) simple and convenient. Follow our step-by-step guide to embark on your crypto journey.Step 1: Create Your HTX AccountUse your email or phone number to sign up for a free account on HTX. Experience a hassle-free registration journey and unlock all features.Get My AccountStep 2: Go to Buy Crypto and Choose Your Payment MethodCredit/Debit Card: Use your Visa or Mastercard to buy Blur (BLUR) instantly.Balance: Use funds from your HTX account balance to trade seamlessly.Third Parties: We've added popular payment methods such as Google Pay and Apple Pay to enhance convenience.P2P: Trade directly with other users on HTX.Over-the-Counter (OTC): We offer tailor-made services and competitive exchange rates for traders.Step 3: Store Your Blur (BLUR)After purchasing your Blur (BLUR), store it in your HTX account. Alternatively, you can send it elsewhere via blockchain transfer or use it to trade other cryptocurrencies.Step 4: Trade Blur (BLUR)Easily trade Blur (BLUR) on HTX's spot market. Simply access your account, select your trading pair, execute your trades, and monitor in real-time. We offer a user-friendly experience for both beginners and seasoned traders.

2.2k Total ViewsPublished 2024.03.29Updated 2026.06.02

How to Buy BLUR

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BLUR (BLUR) are presented below.

活动图片