今夜美联储会议纪要会否暗放大老鹰?

金十数据Published on 2023-02-22Last updated on 2023-02-22

Abstract

美联储调整市场预期的机会又来了!加息25个基点还是50个基点,这场激辩的更多细节即将揭露......

北京时间周四凌晨3点,美联储将公布2月货币政策会议纪要。投资者将可从中窥探多少政策制定者认为有必要进一步加息,以及他们是否预计利率需升至比先前认定更高的水平才能抑制持续高企的通货膨胀。

最新联邦基金利率期货显示,投资者预计美联储将以25个基点的步伐再加息3次,此次FOMC会议纪要预计将有助于调整市场预测。纪要可能将证实,美联储还有更多工作要做。

在2月FOMC会议中,委员们一致投票决定加息25个基点。美联储在政策声明指出,利率未来的上调幅度将取决于多种因素。观察人士认为,随着美联储的紧缩行动接近尾声,这种用词是美联储可能继续以25个基点的幅度调整利率的信号。

Evercore ISI的Krishna Guha和Peter Williams在给客户的报告中写道,会议纪要或将说明以25个基点的幅度调整利率的战略理由。但两位偏鹰官员——克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特和圣路易斯联储主席布拉德上周表示,他们认为有机会在会议上再次加息50个基点,且未来的政策决定仍应有此类较大幅度加息的选项。

会议纪要可以让外界了解,这两位今年没有货币政策投票权的官员的观点只是一家之言,还是其他人也有同样的看法。里士满联储主席巴尔金就反对恢复更大幅度的加息。他上周五说,加息25个基点给了官员们更大的灵活性。

Inflation Insights的创始人Omair Sharif说,官员们可能会为恢复单次加息50个基点设置一个高门槛。但如果更多的政策制定者支持保留以更大幅度加息的选项,这可能暗示美联储不排除将利率升至高于先前预期的水平来平息强劲的通货膨胀。

美联储在去年12月会议发布的预测显示,官员们预计今年利率将略高于5%,并维持一段时间,以使通胀率降至美联储2%的目标。投资者此前对此表示怀疑,并预计美联储今年下半年将降息。但近段时间的经济数据支持进一步收紧货币政策。审慎管理合伙公司的投资总监丹尼尔·贝科维茨在一份报告中称:

“如果大多数FOMC委员认为,当前货币政策传导加快归因于由于美联储正在进行的前瞻指引,这将进一步支持采取更加鹰派的立场,特别是考虑到劳动力市场潜在的韧性。”

不过,也有经济学家认为,即将公布的美联储会议纪要不太可能为市场带来新的交易动力,因为2月份的FOMC会议发生在强劲的非农和CPI数据公布之前。而后来公布的这些数据已经导致市场重新评估了利率预期。

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