[Key interpretation] Funds drive AR up 70%, and ETH bulls prepare for the bull market

Huobi發佈於 2022-11-03更新於 2022-11-04

文章摘要

The strong return of ETH bulls is brewing to raise prices.

1. BTC discharge shock

The daily K line chart shows that after BTC retreated for four consecutive trading days, the trading volume has reached its peak in the past month. With the adjustment, the selling pressure also reached its peak on November 2. On the news side, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates again by 0.75 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, which is the fourth consecutive meeting of the Federal Reserve to announce a 75 basis point increase in interest rates. Affected by this, the BTC price also experienced a short-term strong earthquake of 3.68%. The performance of volume and price suggests that BTC, an investor, has once again withstood the impact of interest rate hikes. At present, the price is still above the middle track of Bollinger Line.

2. BTC contract position decline

The position of BTC contract showed signs of continuous decline. On November 3, the position of BTC contract fell to 8.89 billion US dollars, a decrease of 1.76 billion US dollars, or 17%, compared with the peak of 10.65 billion US dollars on October 26. The position of BTC contract ushered in the most important decline since October, which means that the price amplitude that contract investors can bear in the near future has increased. At the same time, it means that BTC is easier to choose a breakthrough direction in the near future.

3. ETH ready for lifting

The daily K line chart shows that there is limited room for ETH price to retreat in the short term. As the rebound continues, ETH still maintains a large-scale operation. This shows that the recent ETH price rebound trend is expected to continue. Until the trading heat cools down, investors can absorb the market at a low price. In terms of contracts, the long short ratio of ETH rebounded, further indicating that spot prices will strengthen.

4. ETH long short ratio continues to rise

With the rebound of the long short ratio of ETH contracts, the value has reached the peak level of the recent high of 1.146. That is to say, compared with 1.129 on October 23, many parties are more optimistic about the short-term breakthrough performance of ETH price. In terms of trading, attention can be paid to ETH bargain buying opportunities. Considering that the long short ratio has fluctuated less in the past three years and is currently the highest in three years, it has a better effect on the market, further verifying that ETH's market entry trading opportunities are relatively reliable.

5. AR short line volume soars

In the short-term surge phase of AR, the trading volume was significantly enlarged, and the volume started on November 3 was the same as that on October 30. The short-term capacity has reached 20 times, and the AR has been continuously pulled up to the K line for 8 times and 30 minutes. In the phase of AR surge and fall, the trading volume shrinks significantly relative to the phase of price rise, indicating that bulls still have the opportunity to raise prices for a second time. The profit taking market did not completely escape, and focused on the rebound opportunity after the withdrawal of AR. From the point of view, pay attention to the low absorption opportunities of AR above $15.

你可能也喜歡

三年之后:回看 2023 年我对 ChatGPT 的判断

2023年3月,在GPT-4发布前,作者王健硕对ChatGPT的未来做出了二十项预测。三年后的2026年,他使用AI agent对这些判断进行回顾验证,评估其准确性。 **主要看对的方面:** 1. **RAG成为主流**:预测通过外部检索而非修改模型来解决知识更新和幻觉问题,这已成为行业标准架构。 2. **LUI(自然语言界面)兴起**:预测自然语言交互将催生巨大新产业,Agent、MCP协议等发展印证了这一点,但LUI是与GUI共存而非取代。 3. **机器人网络与新寻址系统**:预测Agent将自动协作并需要新寻址方式,MCP、A2A等协议正朝此方向发展。 4. **中国能做出可用大模型**:预测中美模型差距会迅速缩小,事实如此,但真正领先的国内厂商与其当初点名不同。 5. **AI无意识与图灵测试本质**:核心判断“AI无意识,图灵测试仅测表象”基本成立,但“绝无意识”的绝对论断被后续研究置于灰区。 **看错或看偏的方面:** 1. **GPT-4参数数量**:所传“100T参数”严重错误,实际约为1.8T。 2. **LLM的数学能力**:诊断“数学差需外挂工具”正确,但“不可能自行学会”的结论被后续“推理模型”在IMO夺金证伪。 3. **价值捕获**:预测价值在应用层,但现实中算力层(如英伟达)捕获了最大利润,模型层反而亏损。 4. **版权问题**:判断“生成物可能无法登记版权”正确,但认为能“规避侵权”则错误,已出现巨额侵权赔偿案例。 5. **信息茧房与世界大同**:机制上AI会将观点向众数平均,但AI正快速走向“千人千面”的个性化,可能制造新茧房而非消解极化。 6. **大模型成本**:预测“局部战争”和玩家涌入正确,但“5-10亿美元封顶”的成本估算与前沿训练实际花费严重不符。 **总结规律:** 1. 判断**方向和机制**比具体数字、程度更可靠。 2. 倾向于**高估短期变化速度,低估长期能力上限**。 3. 容易忽略**问题内部的分布差异**(如总量正确但部分群体受损)。 4. **留有餘地、分层表述**的判断更经得起时间检验。 5. 一些根本性争论,**三年时间不足以给出最终答案**。 这次回顾表明,在快速变化的领域,把握大方向比追求精确预测更重要,同时需警惕绝对化表述并承认认知的局限性。

链捕手12 分鐘前

三年之后:回看 2023 年我对 ChatGPT 的判断

链捕手12 分鐘前

交易

現貨
合約
活动图片