A Global View on Crypto Market Dynamics

insights.glassnode發佈於 2025-10-16更新於 2025-10-17

Glassnode metrics have mainly been explored on a per-asset basis, providing useful insight into capturing the unique market cycles, liquidity patterns, and on-chain activity of individual assets. While this approach has proven extremely useful, it remains limited when trying to understand the market as a whole.

As liquidity and attention continue to spread beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, market behaviour is increasingly shaped by collective movements across the broader altcoin landscape, a segment that remains underexplored yet crucial for investors and traders to understand.

To address this, we've developed a multi-asset framework that includes the Multi-Asset Explorer – an experimental dashboard that visualizes Glassnode metrics for over 1,000 assets simultaneously. Aggregating and comparing on-chain and market data across assets provides a broader perspective and a more comprehensive understanding of the crypto ecosystem's dynamics. The framework combines Glassnode’s on-chain and market metrics to help users identify liquidity trends, sentiment shifts, and structural changes across the market.

🔗
Explore the dashboard in Glassnode Studio. Available to Professional plan users.

On-Chain and Market Data: A Unified Framework

How to use the dashboard:

At the core of the Explorer is a heatmap interface. Each row represents an asset, each column a day, and each cell shows the value of the selected metric. Above the heatmap sits a context panel displaying Bitcoin’s price (black), the chosen metric for Bitcoin (orange), and the median or other aggregate across the selected assets (blue).

This layout makes it immediately clear whether Bitcoin is behaving in line with the broader market or diverging from it. Users can customize the time window and the summary statistic, switching between median, mean, sum, percentiles, or standard deviation, and choose the number or types of assets to include. Additionally, users can sort the heatmaps using each individual metric. This results in a single interface that connects data streams previously viewed separately.

Sector View: Understanding Inter-Sector Rotations

The Multi-Asset Explorer also introduces a Sector View on our data. This aggregates metrics across groups of related tokens. Users can analyse trends within categories such as Layer-1s, Ethereum ecosystem tokens, DeFi, memes, or stablecoins, and compare their behaviour over time.

This lens makes it easy to see where liquidity and risk are flowing. For instance, funding rates may surge first in meme coins before spreading into DeFi, or realised profits might cluster in Layer-1s while smaller sectors remain under pressure. By collapsing a large number of assets into a handful of market narratives, the Sector View helps to turn scattered activity into clear structural insight, showing when enthusiasm is isolated versus when it becomes systemic.

Tracking Market-Wide Speculation

Figure 1: Funding Rate Heatmap Access Live Chart

The Funding Rate heatmap (Figure 1) shows funding rates for perpetual futures across the top 500 assets by market capitalisation. The top panel shows Bitcoin’s price, its own funding rate, and the market-wide median. The bottom heatmap highlights periods of broad speculative excess (red) and funding compression or capitulation (blue).

Funding rates in perpetual futures are a useful measure of speculative bias. Positive rates signal long-dominant markets, while negative rates point to short pressure and pessimism.

In the Multi-Asset Explorer, we expand upon our existing funding rate metrics (funding rates & funding rate heatmap). This familiar metric becomes even more powerful when viewed across assets and with summary statistics. Figure 1 shows funding rates across the top 500 assets by market capitalization.

In the upper panel, Bitcoin’s price (black), Bitcoin’s funding rate (orange), and the median funding rate across all assets (blue) move in tandem during broad market rallies. Periods where the median surges ahead of Bitcoin often indicate capital rotating into higher-risk coins, a common sign of overheating.

The lower heatmap turns these dynamics into a visual narrative: red bands mark widespread speculative excess, while blue zones show funding compression and capitulation. The dense red clusters of early 2024 preceded multi-month drawdowns as leverage built across the market and later unwound dramatically.

Recently, funding rates have been very muted, signaling limited speculation across the market. During the recent crash, however, we observed an extreme downward spike across nearly all coins, with the median funding rate reaching -60% annualised – one of the largest market-wide negative readings on record.

Mapping Market Cycles

Figure 2: Relative Supply in Profit

The Relative Supply in Profit heatmap (Figure 2) maps across the top 500 assets, showing the share of supply held at a gain. High values (green) mark broad unrealised profits and distribution pressure, while low values (red) indicate capitulation and loss.

This second example, shown in Figure 2, applies the same framework to an on-chain metric: relative supply in profit, which measures the share of each asset’s circulating supply held at a gain. High readings signal broad unrealised profits and potential distribution pressure, while low readings indicate capitulation.

Around March and April 2024, this metric flashed a clear warning. Nearly every asset displayed high relative profits, the heatmap showing uniform green across the entire market. The result was a broad six-month correction across Bitcoin and altcoins as sustained profit taking occurred. The same pattern re-emerged around December 2024 and January 2025, again preceding a market-wide top. A deep altcoin correction followed for several months, with relative profit across the board steadily trending toward the lows. Looking back to 2023, we see similar patterns: periods of broad relative profitability mark market-wide tops.

In contrast, the most recent data show a split picture. A small cluster of large-cap assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a few others remains strongly green, while most of the market sits deep red. Bitcoin is at all-time highs, yet the wider landscape shows exhaustion rather than euphoria.

This divergence highlights how the Multi-Asset Explorer surfaces asymmetric strength and rotation, where capital concentrates in majors while the rest of the market consolidates.

Figure 3: Relative Supply in Profit by Sector

Figure 3 shows the agggregate relative profitability by sector. Profits are concentrated in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and large caps, while sectors such as DeFi, AI, and gaming remain deep in loss.

By enabling the Sector View, we can immediately identify in which sectors, on aggregate, the relative profits currently lie. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and top market cap coins are showing high relative profits, while categories such as memes, DeFi, AI, and gaming tokens are deeply red, indicating a very low amount of relative supply in profit and a lot of pain for investors. We can also identify periods during which profits rotate from one sector to another.

Identifying Capitulation and Market Bottoms

Figure 4: Realised Loss USD (Whale Wallets)

In our next example, Figure 4 maps out the aggregate realised losses for large holders across major assets. Sharp spikes mark periods of capitulation, particularly among altcoin investors, while Bitcoin holders remained comparatively stable.

To identify when markets form local or global bottoms, we can observe periods in which large volumes of losses are realised, using Glassnode’s Realized Loss metric. In this case, we focus on holders with substantial balances (whales) for each asset. When these large entities are forced to capitulate into down-moves and significant losses are realised, it often creates conditions for new buyers to finally step in and reverse the downtrend.

As shown in Figure 4, the Multi-Asset Framework captures several events during which altcoin investors realise significant losses in aggregate, while Bitcoin holders do not. This highlights the value of viewing market stress through aggregate altcoin metrics rather than analysing Bitcoin in isolation.

Tracking Market Entrants and Exits

Figure 5: Activity Retention (New and Churned)

Here, we map the aggregate on-chain activity of new and departing participants across all altcoins. The top panel shows the inflows of new wallets late in market cycles, while the bottom panel captures their rapid exit during downturns and eventual stabilization near market bottoms. Heatmaps are omitted for simplicity.

Our final example demonstrates how a multi-asset view can reveal the behavioral dynamics of the market through on-chain activity. Figure 5 highlights the most recent 2 altcoin market tops, which were preceded by a significant, market-wide altcoin rally. It shows Activity Retention across altcoins ranked between 5 and 500 by market capitalization.

In the top panel (Activity Retention – New), we track the aggregate number of new wallets interacting with these altcoins. The spikes represent the arrival of new participants across the market. Historically, such surges tend to occur in the later stages of market cycles, as enthusiasm peaks and retail inflows accelerate. These new entrants often arrive near local or global tops, while experienced holders take profits and liquidity rotates out of higher-risk assets.

The bottom panel (Activity Retention – Churned) reflects the opposite dynamic, showing wallets that drop out of activity after entering the market. Sharp increases in churn usually follow the peaks in new participation, illustrating how late entrants are quickly washed out during downtrends.

Notably, periods where the churn curve flattens, when most of the new participants have already exited, often align with market bottoms. At these points, speculative excess has been cleared, leaving a more stable base of long-term holders and setting the stage for renewed growth.

Together, the two panels outline a full participation cycle: the inflow of new demand at the top and the capitulation of that same cohort at the bottom. These patterns become visible only through an aggregated, multi-asset perspective, a view uniquely enabled by the Multi-Asset Explorer.

It is also worth noting that Bitcoin’s participation profile looks markedly different. While the altcoin aggregate shows three distinct waves of new entrants, Bitcoin exhibits only a single large ramp followed by a smaller secondary wave. This contrast illustrates how on-chain behaviour varies across the market and why analysing altcoins separately can uncover dynamics that remain hidden in Bitcoin-focused views.

Sector-level and Market-wide Insight

The Multi-Asset Explorer brings together Glassnode’s full spectrum of data, including on-chain behaviour, derivatives activity, and sector-level structure, into a single analytical system. It complements our single asset charts with a coherent, comparative framework that helps users understand the market as a connected whole. This is a novel analytical approach, and early adopters have an edge in being the first to explore and interpret the data in this way.

We encourage users to explore the tool, experiment with sectors and metrics, and share feedback as we continue to expand its capabilities. New metrics can also be added, provided they are available for a sufficiently large number of assets. The Multi-Asset Explorer is currently limited to daily resolution, but users can make use of Glassnode’s bulk endpoint to conveniently obtain multi-asset data with up to 10 minute resolution. 
Analysts and traders can apply this framework to build market-wide strategies and signals, identifying crowding, dispersion, or cyclical extremes. We also welcome collaboration on which metrics best serve different use cases and invite users to engage with these datasets through the bulk data endpoints, designed specifically for such research.

Disclaimer: This report is for informational and educational purposes only. The analysis represents a limited case study with significant constraints and should not be interpreted as investment advice or definitive trading signals. Past performance patterns do not guarantee future results. Always conduct thorough due diligence and consider multiple factors before making investment decisions.

你可能也喜歡

对手纷纷上市,Kimi坐不住了

近日,月之暗面(Kimi母公司)已启动VIE及红筹架构拆除工作,为赴港IPO铺路。这标志着公司态度从半年前的“短期不着急上市”转向积极筹备。分析指出,拆除架构是上市前的关键步骤,后续仍需完成股权、监管、备案、审计等多道程序,整个过程可能需要半年到一年甚至更久。 这一转变背后是行业竞争态势的升级。2026年初,智谱和MiniMax相继成功登陆港股,股价表现强劲,为AI大模型公司打开了二级市场的估值空间。在此背景下,月之暗面的估值从2023年的约3亿美元飙升至2026年5月的超过200亿美元。分析认为,当前资本追逐的是中国大模型赛道的“稀缺门票”和成为下一代AI入口的潜力,而非短期利润。但高达200亿美元的估值也被认为可能提前透支了未来成长,其稳固性需依赖模型持续领先、商业化放量及成本下降。 月之暗面长期以来被视为“技术派”,注重基座模型研发。尽管其Kimi App的月活跃用户数有所下滑,但公司已调整战略,聚焦于智能体(Agent)和生产力价值,削减广告投入,转向技术驱动商业化。2026年1月发布K2.5模型后,公司收入增长显著,年度经常性收入(ARR)已突破2亿美元,付费订阅与API成为新增长点。 近期完成的20亿美元D轮融资也显示了资本对其商业模式调整的认可。然而,上市后将面临新的挑战:组织架构需更规范,研发节奏将受到投入产出比的约束,商业化能力和可持续收入将受到二级市场投资者的重点关注。分析指出,月之暗面未来的核心考验在于能否将“技术稀缺性”转化为“可持续收入”与“可解释的估值”。

marsbit10 分鐘前

对手纷纷上市,Kimi坐不住了

marsbit10 分鐘前

Tether 双币策略:USAT 合规只是烟雾弹,USDT 永不合规才是真相?

2026年1月,Tether推出了专为符合美国《GENIUS法案》而设计的合规稳定币USAT,这看似是其迈向监管的一步。然而,本文分析认为,USAT实际上是一道“防火墙”,其真正目的是为了让Tether的核心产品——规模超过1830亿美元的离岸稳定币USDT——能够永久性地规避美国监管。 文章指出,USDT与USAT存在本质区别:USAT由美国特许银行发行并受严格监管,而USDT在离岸运营,其储备资产包含黄金、比特币等《GENIUS法案》所禁止的高收益资产,这正是Tether巨额利润的来源。将USDT合规化意味着必须出售这些资产并接受严格监督,这将极大削弱其盈利能力和对离岸用户(尤其是在美元短缺的新兴市场)的吸引力。 因此,Tether采取了“双币策略”:让USAT服务受监管的美国市场,而让USDT继续在离岸自由扩张。根据法案,2028年后未获批准的稳定币将无法在美国平台交易,但这恰恰强化了Tether的分离设计——USDT将完全专注于海外庞大市场。 此外,USDT储备中持有大量美国国债,使其成为美国政府债务的重要买家,但美国却对其缺乏监管。文章最后强调,问题的核心不在于Tether是否违法,而在于全球最具系统重要性的美元稳定币被有意结构性地置于美元发行国的监管之外,这带来了深远的政策与金融稳定性疑问。

marsbit42 分鐘前

Tether 双币策略:USAT 合规只是烟雾弹,USDT 永不合规才是真相?

marsbit42 分鐘前

港美股“灰色开户时代”终结,你的钱还能去哪?

2026年5月,香港与内地监管机构同步出手,终结了内地投资者通过香港券商投资港美股的“灰色通道”。香港证监会发布严厉通函,要求券商严查开户文件并关闭问题账户,内地客户新开户需签署声明,承诺投资资金来自境外合法来源。同时,中国证监会联合多部委开展为期两年的专项整治,对老虎证券、富途证券等平台的非法跨境业务进行处罚,存量账户在过渡期内只许卖出。 新规落地后,内地投资者赴港线下开户面临严格审核,即使签署声明也可能失败。目前,富途、老虎等主要互联网券商已停止接受内地新客户。合规开户渠道大幅收窄,盈立、复星财富等少数持牌券商虽保留通道,但审核趋严,成功与否很大程度上取决于申请人是否确实拥有境外资金来源及合规身份。 对于资金出入境,新规要求必须通过客户本人名下的香港或合资格地区银行账户操作,封堵了第三方换汇等灰色路径。因此,先开设香港银行账户成为必要步骤。 对于内地普通投资者,完全合规的途径包括通过港股通、QDII、跨境理财通等官方渠道进行境外资产配置,虽然产品选择有限,但安全性最高。此外,拥有海外合法身份及资金证明的投资者仍有机会。监管收紧标志着无序扩张时代的结束,投资者需更重视合规性与法律责任。

Odaily星球日报57 分鐘前

港美股“灰色开户时代”终结,你的钱还能去哪?

Odaily星球日报57 分鐘前

SpaceX 1.75 万亿 IPO:速通 17 只概念股

SpaceX计划于6月12日以1.75万亿美元估值进行史上最大规模IPO,但其估值核心并非仍在测试的Starship火箭,而是已拥有超1030万付费用户的Starlink卫星互联网业务,该业务贡献了集团61%的收入且利润率极高。文章认为,围绕SpaceX上市的资金狂欢已提前上演,多只概念股自招股书泄露后涨幅显著。 文章将17只概念股分为几类进行分析:特斯拉(TSLA)因与SpaceX在芯片、算力等方面深度协同而被视为“高确定性侧袋”;直接竞争对手如Rocket Lab(RKLB)、AST SpaceMobile(ASTS)和Firefly Aerospace(FLY)既受益于板块热度,也面临SpaceX上市后资金分流的风险;合作伙伴如EchoStar(SATS)、高通(QCOM)和T-Mobile(TMUS)等将从生态繁荣中获益;而如Destiny Tech100(DXYZ)等通过基金间接持有SpaceX股份的标的,在IPO后可能因稀缺性消失而面临溢价大幅回调的风险。此外,文章单独介绍了作为“太空卖铲人”的Redwire(RDW),其业务涵盖航天零部件和微重力制药,并可能受益于国防订单。 文章最后提示风险,认为市场可能已提前消化利好,需警惕IPO后“利好兑现”的回调。SpaceX自身面临Starship测试、Starlink用户平均收入下滑及AI业务不确定性等挑战,其高估值需要完美执行未来计划来支撑。投资者需注意尾部风险,并建议控制该主题的整体仓位。

marsbit1 小時前

SpaceX 1.75 万亿 IPO:速通 17 只概念股

marsbit1 小時前

交易

現貨
合約
活动图片