Over the last month, a coordinated attack against altcoins by the US SEC caused Bitcoin dominance to surpass 50%. Above the psychological level makes BTC more valuable as a whole than the entire crypto market.
However, a technical signal has appeared that in the past put in a peak in BTC.D and suddenly sparked a reversal in altcoins. Here is a closer look at the signal and why a surprise alt season could be right around the corner.
Bitcoin Dominance Beats All Other Crypto Combined
Bitcoin dominance is a metric that measures the top cryptocurrency’s market cap against the weight of everything else in the space. It is often used as a barometer of health in altcoins, specifically when it’s better to be in BTC, or in alts like Ethereum, Litecoin, or Solana.
When BTC.D is falling and the market is healthy, altcoins outperform Bitcoin in terms of alpha. But as high beta assets, alts are significantly more volatile. As a result, when the market is crashing, they suffer much more drawdown by comparison and BTC’s market share becomes increasingly dominant.
This is precisely the case all throughout 2023. Altcoins have taken a beating, but Bitcoin has held its ground. This divergence across the different types of cryptocurrencies has caused the total market cap of BTC to surpass all other coins combined. 50% dominance is clearly an important level. However, it’s a reading on the Relative Strength Index that’s particularly notable.
Will dominance be rejected? | BTCUSD on TradingView.com
The BTC.D Signal Hinting At A Surprise Altcoin Season
The Relative Strength Index is a momentum measuring tool, which tells traders when an asset is overbought or oversold. In crypto, assets can stay overbought or oversold for extended periods of time. But in BTC.D, on weekly timeframes, historically it hasn’t spent much time at overbought conditions. In fact, it has only reached overbought a handful of times.
This latest push into overbought territory has reached a reading that in the past put the peak in for Bitcoin dominance and immediately turned around into an epic altcoin season. This setup last appeared in late 2019 when BTC.D was at 70%.
With such overbought conditions, combined with an Elliott Wave count indicative of a five-wave move coming to an end, an altcoin season might not be as far away as most are expecting. Although altcoins outperform in an alt season, hence the name, they require a bullish Bitcoin to bait retail to the market.
With BTC beginning to show bullish signs once again, how long until altcoins follow and ultimately outperform?
This chart originally appeared in Issue #10 of CoinChartist (VIP). Get 10% off a year subscription with this link: https://coinchartist.substack.com/NEWSBTC
Tony is the author of the CoinChartist (VIP) newsletter. Follow @TonyTheBullBTC & @coinchartist_io on Twitter. Or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice. Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
Tony is the “always-on” Editorial Director and Head of Research at NewsBTC, leading a talented team of writers and editors across several different global time zones. Tony is also the founder of CoinChartist.io – an educational website focused on crypto trading. Partners include Elliott Wave International, TradingView, and more. Tony’s background includes an extensive, award-winning media production career and over fifteen years of publishing operations and management. In the past, Tony has founded several media websites and his content has been read billions of times. Past clients include the BBC, Fidelity, and many others. Tony "The Bull" is a level 3 CMT student (passed level 1 & 2), technical analyst, Bitcoin supporter, and avid speculator. He owns a python named Satoshi. Tony longs for the day when money is separated from the state. Tony is deeply fascinated by core market principles such as Elliott Wave Theory as they tie into mathematics like Fibonacci ratios. Market timing though DeMark indicators, Ichimoku, Gann tools, or Hurst Cycle Theory are also of key interest. Tony provides completely original content driven by exclusive, independent research. For more insights and education from Tony, check out his free TonyTradesBTC Telegram channel. Follow @TonyTheBullBTC on Twitter. You can also follow @CoinChartist_io on Twitter and subscribe on YouTube.
