A Company 'Destined to Be Killed' – How Did Its Returns Outperform Solana, the S&P, and Nasdaq?
The article argues that the biggest beneficiaries of stablecoin technology are not the startups building it, but established companies with existing distribution channels. The author uses Western Union (WU) as a prime example. Initially believing stablecoins would disrupt WU's business, the author instead found a valuable, cash-generating company whose stock was priced for imminent failure (trading at a P/E of 3-6x). The market had given WU zero credit for its powerful, trusted brand and massive global distribution network.
The core "Inversion" thesis is that the market structurally overvalues tech innovators and undervalues old-economy companies, pricing their potential adoption of new technology at zero. This creates a significant margin of safety and asymmetric upside. The author's bet on WU over Solana paid off, as WU's management began embracing stablecoins, launching USDPT on Solana to reduce costs. The author contends that mature companies with distribution are best positioned to capture the efficiency gains from technologies like stablecoins and AI, leveraging their existing customer trust and reach to expand margins while startups commoditize the infrastructure.
marsbit03/30 04:36
