# Bài viết Liên quan Elections

Trung tâm Tin tức HTX cung cấp những bài viết mới nhất và phân tích chuyên sâu về "Elections", bao gồm xu hướng thị trường, cập nhật dự án, phát triển công nghệ và chính sách quản lý trong ngành tiền kỹ thuật số.

Crypto firms lead 2026 U.S. election donations with $189M: ‘Legalized bribery!’

Crypto industry leads corporate political spending for the 2026 U.S. midterm elections with a record $189 million, according to FEC data. This surpasses its 2024 total and accounts for over a third of all corporate donations. Major donors include a16z, Ripple Labs, and Coinbase, with funds largely supporting pro-crypto candidates, primarily Republicans. Key goals include passing the stalled CLARITY Act and protecting recent regulatory gains. Critics, like Senator Bernie Sanders, label the spending "legalized bribery."

ambcrypto07/02 00:02

Crypto firms lead 2026 U.S. election donations with $189M: ‘Legalized bribery!’

ambcrypto07/02 00:02

Meta Follows the Trend into Prediction Markets: Can It Avoid Repeating the Failure of the Metaverse?

Meta, the tech giant behind Facebook, has reportedly formed a team to develop "Arena," a new application focused on prediction markets. Users would use platform points to place bets on outcomes in politics, sports, and global events. This move follows Meta's massive, nearly $900 billion, losses from its heavily-invested metaverse division, Reality Labs. The prediction market industry is already showing strong demand, with leading platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket facilitating hundreds of billions in annual volume. Meta, with its 3.56 billion daily active users across its apps, possesses the unprecedented scale to bring this niche activity to a mainstream audience, similar to its past success in cloning features like Stories and Reels. However, Arena faces significant hurdles. Meta plans to start with a points-based system to avoid strict financial regulations, but this may dilute the core incentive of accurate prediction that real-money markets provide. More critically, Meta enters the space with a major trust deficit stemming from its past regulatory battles, notably the failed Libra/Diem stablecoin project, and its controversial history with political content and misinformation. The prediction market sector itself is under increasing regulatory scrutiny, with recent CFTC actions including fines and the first-ever insider trading case. While Meta's vast user base offers a unique opportunity to expand the market, its success hinges on navigating complex regulations and rebuilding the credibility necessary for a platform dealing with sensitive topics like elections. The outcome could range from Meta dramatically growing the industry to Arena becoming a high-profile regulatory target before it can scale.

Foresight News06/25 06:03

Meta Follows the Trend into Prediction Markets: Can It Avoid Repeating the Failure of the Metaverse?

Foresight News06/25 06:03

Arthur Hayes' Latest Interview: AI Drains Market Liquidity, BTC Unlikely to Reach $100K This Year

Arthur Hayes recently liquidated major crypto holdings including HYPE, NEAR, Worldcoin, and Zcash. His decision stems from a macro view linking oil prices, the Iran conflict, U.S. politics, and an impending AI bubble peak. He argues that high oil prices, driven by prolonged Middle East tensions, are hurting the Republican Party's election prospects. To salvage the midterms, Hayes predicts Trump may pivot to an anti-AI populist stance—advocating for taxes and regulation—which could deflate the AI investment frenzy. Hayes highlights that the AI sector has absorbed nearly all excess market liquidity via massive debt issuance ($1.5T estimated since ChatGPT's launch), leaving little for crypto. He warns that the upcoming SpaceX IPO (valued at ~$1.8T, 100x sales) and other AI mega-listings are unsustainable and risk a broad market correction. When the AI bubble bursts, he expects high correlation across assets, dragging Bitcoin down too. For now, Hayes holds Treasury bonds and energy stocks. He sees crypto outperforming only after the AI mania cools and liquidity shifts, but not before a significant downturn. In a rapid-fire, he predicts Bitcoin below $100k by year-end and would currently invest new capital in ExxonMobil.

marsbit06/18 02:54

Arthur Hayes' Latest Interview: AI Drains Market Liquidity, BTC Unlikely to Reach $100K This Year

marsbit06/18 02:54

Promised Year of Crypto IPOs? Only One Went Public in Six Months, Down 70%

The much-anticipated wave of crypto IPOs in 2026 has failed to materialize, with market conditions worsening dramatically. While SpaceX prepares for the largest IPO in history, raising $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation, the crypto sector faces a frozen pipeline. The sole crypto IPO success this year, BitGo, serves as a cautionary tale. After launching on the NYSE in January at $18, its stock has plummeted approximately 70%. Other major contenders have stalled or delayed. Kraken, which secretly filed in late 2025, has put its plans on ice, seeing its valuation drop 33% to $13.3 billion. Consensys has postponed its filing until autumn at the earliest, and Bitpanda is poised to miss its self-imposed H1 deadline for a Frankfurt listing. This widespread retreat is driven by a severe liquidity crunch. Bitcoin has fallen below $60,000, with capital being diverted to AI stocks and the massive SpaceX offering. The poor performance of earlier crypto listings like Gemini and the stagnant price of Coinbase further dampen investor appetite. A key underlying pressure is the impending US midterm elections in November, which could alter the currently favorable regulatory landscape. Companies had hoped to go public during this window of policy certainty, but challenging market dynamics have overridden those plans. The transparency that comes with being a public company is now seen as a potential liability rather than a benefit in a down market. The industry's fate now hinges on a few critical watchpoints: whether Kraken restarts its process in H2, if Consensys files in the fall, and if SpaceX's debut can revitalize market liquidity. Otherwise, the promised "crypto IPO year" will likely be pushed beyond the election.

marsbit06/11 06:09

Promised Year of Crypto IPOs? Only One Went Public in Six Months, Down 70%

marsbit06/11 06:09

After Polymarket and Kalshi, Are There Any Dark Horses Left in the Prediction Market?

The prediction market, once a niche crypto experiment, has evolved into a mainstream financial and information market, moving beyond a sole reliance on political events. The 2024 US election showcased platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, but sustained post-election volume from sports, tech, and economics proved long-term demand. By 2026, a duopoly controls ~97.5% of volume: Polymarket leverages on-chain trading, USDC settlement, and media integrations, while Kalshi uses CFTC compliance to access mainstream finance via partners like Robinhood. New challengers are emerging in specific niches: short-cycle trading (@trylimitless), media-native markets (@MyriadMarkets), social platform integration (@kash_bot), and infrastructure layers (@azuroprotocol, @theclearingco). Key 2026 drivers include AI agents executing over 30% of on-chain trades, media platforms embedding odds as engaging content, and sports becoming the dominant sustained vertical. Core challenges remain: contested volume metrics, state-level regulatory friction classifying markets as gambling, and token airdrop speculation inflating activity. The future lies not with generic clones, but with platforms possessing deep vertical focus, clear distribution advantages, and viable regulatory or on-chain liquidity strategies.

marsbit05/21 09:14

After Polymarket and Kalshi, Are There Any Dark Horses Left in the Prediction Market?

marsbit05/21 09:14

Crypto May Be Loud Online, But Only 4% Of Voters Care: Poll

A Politico survey reveals a stark disconnect between crypto industry lobbying and U.S. voter priorities. While crypto groups have spent over $130 million on the 2024 elections, only 4% of voters say a candidate's position on crypto would influence their vote. Affordable housing, consumer fraud protection, and lower bank fees rank as far more important issues for voters. The poll also shows public ambivalence toward digital assets. Only 27% support government efforts to make crypto mainstream, while 31% oppose it. Over half of respondents have never traded crypto and don't plan to. Among those who have traded, 7% say a candidate's stance would sway their vote. Furthermore, 45% view crypto investing as a risk not worth taking. Despite low voter interest, Congress is advancing crypto regulation. The Senate Banking Committee is set to vote on a regulatory framework bill, a version of which already passed the House in June.

bitcoinist05/14 21:31

Crypto May Be Loud Online, But Only 4% Of Voters Care: Poll

bitcoinist05/14 21:31

The Billionaires Behind the Most Expensive Midterm Election in History

"The Most Expensive Midterm Elections and Their Billionaire Backers" This analysis details the unprecedented scale of spending in the 2026 midterm elections, highlighting the key billionaire donors shaping the political landscape. Jeff Yass, founder of Susquehanna International Group, has contributed over $81 million, ranking third among individual donors behind George Soros ($102.6M) and Elon Musk ($84.8M). Yass is a major donor to Trump's MAGA Inc. and supports school choice and various candidates. Overall, federal committees have raised over $4.7 billion this cycle, with political ad spending projected to reach $10.8 billion. Republican-aligned groups are significantly out-raising their Democratic counterparts. "Dark money" from undisclosed sources continues to grow. The core stakes involve control of Congress and policy direction for Trump's final term. Donors are also motivated by specific issues: Sergey Brin and Chris Larsen are funding opposition to a proposed California wealth tax and supporting crypto-friendly policies. Other top donors include OpenAI's Greg Brockman and his wife Anna ($50M total to MAGA Inc. and an AI-focused PAC), Richard Uihlein ($45.3M to conservative causes), venture capitalists Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz (each over $44M to crypto/AI PACs and MAGA Inc.), Miriam Adelson ($42.6M to GOP leadership PACs), Paul Singer ($33.9M), and Diane Hendricks ($25.8M to MAGA Inc.). The article notes that the peak fundraising period is still ahead, with major primaries approaching.

marsbit05/11 07:19

The Billionaires Behind the Most Expensive Midterm Election in History

marsbit05/11 07:19

Crypto Allies Gain Ground In Congress After Indiana Primary Win

The crypto industry's main political action committee, Fairshake, spent heavily to support the successful primary re-election of Indiana Republican Representative James Baird, a reliable ally on crypto legislation. Fairshake, backed by major firms like Coinbase and Ripple, has a massive war chest and is already directing millions toward other 2026 races. Baird's win coincides with advancing crypto bills in Congress, including the CLARITY Act, which recently overcame a key hurdle on stablecoin yield provisions. However, the legislation faces scrutiny, with some senators demanding added ethics rules before offering their support.

bitcoinist05/08 08:37

Crypto Allies Gain Ground In Congress After Indiana Primary Win

bitcoinist05/08 08:37

Polymarket Is Not an All-Powerful "Truth Machine"

Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform, is often hailed as a "truth machine" for its ability to aggregate crowd wisdom through financial stakes. While it has demonstrated remarkable accuracy in predicting major events like the 2024 U.S. presidential election—outperforming traditional polls—its overall reliability is highly inconsistent. Analysis using the Brier score reveals that its predictive power excels in high-liquidity domains like politics and economics but falls to near-random or worse in categories like sports, culture, and tech. The platform’s growing influence is concerning as its odds are increasingly cited by major media outlets like The Wall Street Journal and CNN, lending them an air of authority. This visibility creates a feedback loop where the odds themselves can influence the outcomes they are meant to predict—a phenomenon known as endogeneity. Moreover, the market is vulnerable to manipulation by well-resourced "whales" with access to exclusive information, such as private polls or even military intelligence, as seen in cases involving bets on geopolitical events. While useful for short-term, high-stakes events, Polymarket’s predictions are often unreliable for the vast majority of its contracts due to low liquidity and wide bid-ask spreads. The danger lies not in its occasional failures, but in the unchecked trust it receives—risking a future where a handful of traders can shape perceived reality through a platform masquerading as an oracle of truth.

marsbit04/15 11:40

Polymarket Is Not an All-Powerful "Truth Machine"

marsbit04/15 11:40

Crypto-Backed Super PAC Launches Midterm Election Endorsements Push

A crypto-aligned super PAC named Fellowship PAC, chaired by Tether's head of government affairs Jesse Spiro, has launched its 2026 midterm election push with over $100 million to spend. Its first action was a $300,000 ad buy supporting a Republican candidate in a Georgia congressional race. The PAC has also endorsed several other Republican candidates in key Senate and gubernatorial races across five states. This strategy mirrors previous crypto-backed efforts, like the Fairshake PAC, which spent heavily in the 2024 cycle. Meanwhile, major crypto legislation, the CLARITY Act, remains stalled in the Senate.

bitcoinist04/15 10:02

Crypto-Backed Super PAC Launches Midterm Election Endorsements Push