# Bài viết Liên quan Cyclical

Trung tâm Tin tức HTX cung cấp những bài viết mới nhất và phân tích chuyên sâu về "Cyclical", bao gồm xu hướng thị trường, cập nhật dự án, phát triển công nghệ và chính sách quản lý trong ngành tiền kỹ thuật số.

UBS: The Crowdedness of A-Share Tech Stocks Is Far From Reaching Historical Peaks

UBS: A-share tech stocks still far from peak crowding levels A-shares' technology sector has seen a strong rebound, with trading activity hitting record highs, raising concerns about market crowding. However, UBS Securities argues that a key indicator of institutional positioning suggests the current crowding level remains well below historical peaks. While the large-cap tech sector's share of total A-share trading volume and market capitalization have reached historical highs, the overweight ratio of domestic mutual funds in this sector stood at 9.9% in Q1 2026. This is down from 11.6% in Q3 2025 and significantly lower than the historical peak of 14.1% in Q4 2015. It also pales in comparison to the historical peak overweight of 18.7% for the consumer sector. UBS notes that typical cycles from a low to a peak in fund overweighting last about three years, and the current outperformance of the tech/growth style has lasted less than two years since the policy pivot in September 2024. UBS expects A-share earnings recovery to accelerate, providing fundamental support. It forecasts 2026 A-share profit growth to rise to 11% from 3.9% in 2025. Non-financial A-share profits grew 11.8% YoY in Q1 2026, with gross and net profit margins at their highest since 2023. Persistent fund inflows, the expansion of thematic ETFs, and a recovery in private fund issuance are supporting market liquidity. In tactical allocation, UBS favors growth and cyclical styles under its "slow bull" base case, with overweight ratings on six sectors: Electronics (benefiting from semiconductor inventory recovery and AI innovation), Communications (driven by AI computing demand), Machinery (aided by domestic capex recovery), Non-ferrous Metals (due to rising copper/aluminum prices), Chemicals (supported by anti-involution policies), and Electrical Equipment (driven by policy support and AI data center power demand).

marsbit06/05 02:48

UBS: The Crowdedness of A-Share Tech Stocks Is Far From Reaching Historical Peaks

marsbit06/05 02:48

An In-Depth Analysis of the Reasons Behind the Recent Surge in the Memory Storage Industry

"Understanding the Recent Boom in the Memory Industry" summarizes the key structural shift in the memory sector driven by AI. Traditionally, the memory industry (DRAM, NAND) has been highly cyclical, with prices driven by inventory cycles and consumer electronics demand, which can be deferred. However, AI has fundamentally changed the demand structure. AI workloads create continuous, non-deferrable demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) due to GPU memory bottlenecks. This high-margin HBM production is prioritized by major manufacturers like Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, structurally reducing the supply of traditional DRAM and NAND. Consequently, the market is transitioning from a spot-based model to a contract-based allocation system. HBM supply is reportedly booked through 2026, leading to spot shortages and sharp price increases for other memory types. Delivery lead times have also extended dramatically. Pricing power is shifting from the open market to those with long-term contracts. Primary beneficiaries are HBM-leading suppliers and large hyperscalers (Microsoft, AWS, Google) that can lock in future supply. Key risks to this "AI supercycle" include a potential slowdown in AI capital expenditure, disruptive new memory architectures, or a return to aggressive industry capacity expansion, which could reintroduce cyclicality.

marsbit05/11 10:30

An In-Depth Analysis of the Reasons Behind the Recent Surge in the Memory Storage Industry

marsbit05/11 10:30

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