Author: Simon
Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow
Original title: Can Pump.fun Tell a New Story Next Year?
The following content is excerpted from Delphi's upcoming "2026 Application Outlook Report," focusing on Pump(.)fun — one of the consumer applications we are most interested in for the coming year.
Since we published the initial Pump report (before its funding round), many things have changed. Many of the dynamics we predicted have been validated, but some areas have fallen short of expectations, leaving users and investors disappointed. However, the core challenges facing Pump remain unchanged.
To realize Pump's grand vision, the team needs to strike a balance between the short-term profit-seeking nature of the crypto industry and its long-term vision for the platform. It is worth noting that once a project launches a token, its operational environment shifts; the token itself becomes an independent product with inherent reflexivity, continuously shaping user expectations. Pump is no exception.
Since completing its funding round, the Pump team has increased its investment in crypto-native streaming, but this area has not developed as smoothly as we anticipated, at least not yet reaching the ideal state.
Pump has not yet succeeded in attracting core creators from outside the crypto ecosystem, and the CCM meta (creator coin meta) that emerged on the Pump platform was short-lived. The most notable moment came from the "Bagwork" campaign, which not only demonstrated the potential of creator-driven tokens but also revealed the structural issues hindering the model's development.
This viral explosion was led by a group of teenagers who, with some support from Pump, executed a series of sensational events: snatching Bradley Martyn's hat, storming the Dodgers' game field, rushing onto the Knicks' court, and even getting tattoos of Pumpfun and Bagwork.
The rise of @onlybagwork almost perfectly coincided with the peak of Pump.fun's frenzy in mid-September. At that time, the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $PUMP reached approximately $8.5 billion, and Bagwork's market cap briefly exceeded $50 million.
However, since then, no creator token has come close to such organic momentum or reached similar valuation peaks.
The Knicks court incident occurred more recently, long after the initial hype, and now Bagwork's market cap is just over $2 million.
Bagwork is one of the few cases in Pump's streaming experiment that actually worked as intended. The Bagwork team earned over 2300 SOL in creator revenue from $BAGWORK trading fees (approximately $300,000 at current prices).
Notably, all of this was achieved without the team selling their holdings. Viral events directly translated into attention, trading volume, and fee revenue, creating the closest case to a true creator token flywheel effect for Pump to date.
However, beyond Bagwork, Pump has struggled to realize its streaming vision. Creator tokens have consistently failed to retain their value. This phenomenon can be traced back to a fundamental issue: the token itself is part of the product.
Currently, the economic rationale for owning or supporting a streamer's token remains unclear. Bagwork's early success quickly faded, and since then, every major streamer token has failed to gain similar traction, eventually trending toward zero.
Creators can achieve short-term gains through the CCM fee structure, but the reputational risk associated with crashed tokens makes this model unattractive to larger, more established creators who could have helped the platform reach a broader audience. From a trader's perspective, these tokens remain a zero-sum game environment rather than genuine communities.
This is the most critical issue Pump needs to address as it moves into 2026.
So far, the team has not made meaningful attempts at deeper creator incentive mechanisms, and airdrop allocations remain untouched. Apart from the informal support provided during the Bagwork frenzy, Pump has not taken any coordinated measures, such as targeted airdrops, creator rewards, or other incentive mechanisms that could have been used to kickstart early momentum, create more PvE (Player vs. Environment)-style incentives, and provide creators with a space to experiment without immediately damaging their communities.
The good news is that this provides Pump with significant flexibility.
The untouched "Community & Ecosystem Initiatives" treasury remains a powerful lever the team can utilize as the model matures. If Pump can design a sustainable incentive structure for creator tokens, it could open up a new economic category for creators looking to leverage crypto mechanisms for monetization and audience expansion.
Although this potential upside is substantial, until then, streaming will continue to manifest as a series of short-lived hype cycles rather than a durable and repeatable vertical.
On the token side, the primary catalyst that drove $PUMP from around $0.025 to $0.085 was the team's decision to use 100% of net revenue for buybacks.
Pump shifted from initially planning to use about a quarter of its revenue for buybacks to almost fully adopting a Hyperliquid-style buyback model. This change was made after the market clearly indicated that a partial buyback model would not be well-received. This shift ignited one of the strongest large-cap token rallies this year in a liquidity-scarce and challenging altcoin market.
In terms of the buyback-to-market-cap ratio, no other major token currently trades at a lower multiple.
Based on current data, Pump's annualized revenue is $422 million, with a market cap of $1.84 billion, implying a market-cap-to-revenue ratio (MC/Rev) of 4.36x and an annualized buyback yield of approximately 12.8%. This is significantly lower than other large-cap tokens, including Hyperliquid's ~8.01x MC/Rev and ~3.34% yield.
Even so, the market remains skeptical about Pump's long-term business prospects.
Market concerns may include: whether the team can consistently deliver meaningful products; the impact of future unlocks on the market with approximately 40% of the token supply still locked; and the uncertainty surrounding the final allocation of airdrop and creator incentive distributions. Additionally, the overall contraction of Meme coin activity in the crypto market, reduced end-user activity, and questions about the sustainability of Pump's revenue base also raise doubts.
Despite these concerns, Pump still dominates the Meme coin launchpad space. Even in the current extremely tough market environment, Pump still earns (and buys back) about $1 million daily.
Pump's daily launchpad revenue has dropped nearly 85% from its peak of close to $14 million earlier this year to currently around $2 million. However, competitors have only posed a threat to Pump's position for brief periods, failing to bring substantial challenges. This aligns with our prediction in the initial report regarding the short-lived Bonk and Raydium challenge phases: even during cyclical trading volume contractions, Pump has maintained structural advantages and dominated the industry's activity share.
The acquisition of Padre supports the view that Pump intends to expand beyond Solana into a multi-chain ecosystem and has achieved support for BNB ecosystem assets through the Padre frontend. This also aligns with our earlier prediction that Pump would eventually acquire a terminal or terminal-related asset to strengthen user acquisition channels and integrate more of the user journey.
Beyond these moves, the team has recently maintained a low-profile strategy. An investor call is currently planned but had not been held at the time of writing, so more details may be disclosed later.
The leadership team has also expressed interest in the broader ICM (Initial Community Offering) category, although we believe this is not the core area of Pump's current brand positioning or product strengths. Pump initially experimented with the Believe model but failed to gain significant market attention. MetaDAO has become the dominant player in the "high-quality founder + community" fundraising space.
Furthermore, the culture and structure of ICM seem less aligned with Pump's brand positioning. Pump's brand core revolves around speculation, speed, and the Meme culture of creators, rather than long-term governance or Futarchy-based systems. For Pump to succeed in the ICM space, they would need to lean towards more governance-focused structures and attract non-crypto teams looking to operate on-chain. However, this does not fully align with the needs and positioning of Pump's current users and creators. Although theoretically, ICM could offer some potential upside if the team takes action, we see this more as a secondary or optional direction rather than a natural extension of Pump's existing flywheel into 2026.
Looking ahead to 2026, Pump's main questions focus on: whether it can finally establish an incentive-compatible creator token model; whether it can achieve substantial multi-chain market expansion through Padre; how to manage the risks of token unlocks and declining revenue visibility; and which product vertical to prioritize as its main focus. Currently, Pump's strategy seems scattered across multiple directions, including streaming, ICM, and mobile.
At some point in the future, the team may need to clearly focus on one core breakthrough. For most of 2025, that breakthrough seemed to be streaming, but this is no longer clear now.
The bigger question is whether Pump can attract larger non-crypto creators. This might require redesigning the creator token flywheel mechanism, providing stronger, longer-term incentives to support viral growth beyond the crypto-native user base. Pump has the basic conditions to achieve this. The 2025 Bagwork frenzy briefly showcased the potential success of this model, a time when Pump seemed close to crossing the chasm.
Furthermore, Pump still has vast room to expand its product suite. One strategic direction the team should seriously evaluate is entering the iGaming or casino-related vertical. Adopting a model similar to Kick or Stake would naturally fit Pump's speculation-driven user base. This direction would deeply synergize with its Meme coin and streaming strategic goals, and the profit potential in this field is already proven.
Shuffle's net gaming revenue and weekly lottery distribution demonstrate the huge potential of this area with successful execution.
Pump's mobile application is another underutilized advantage. Deeper expansion into mobile could broaden user acquisition channels, make the product more accessible to mainstream users, and provide creators with more monetization scenarios. If combined with iGaming, this could not only significantly expand Pump's potential audience but also strengthen the platform's existing successful elements.
Despite the uncertainties, Pump remains one of the most resilient consumer applications of this cycle, maintaining dominance even as the overall market landscape has shifted. Substantial progress in any key direction could trigger a significant shift in market sentiment and help Pump break through to attract a broader non-crypto-native user base.
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