Bitcoin ends July near the $64,000 mark: the market experienced a volatile reaction to the US Federal Reserve's decision to leave rates unchanged but received no signal for an immediate policy easing. Against this backdrop, capital once again flowed into spot Bitcoin funds, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization holds around $2.29 trillion, and major altcoins are moving without a unified direction.
For investors, the end of the month is in waiting mode. On the one hand, high rates and the Fed's hawkish rhetoric limit risk appetite. On the other hand, the absence of panic selling, net inflows into Bitcoin-ETFs, and the resilience of key levels show that the digital asset market is not yet ready for a sharp decline.
Key Crypto Market Events of the Day
- The US Federal Reserve kept rates in the 3.50-3.75% range, and the vote ended 9 to 3: three committee members voted for a rate hike.
- Bitcoin holds near $64,000 after moving from $63,700 to almost $64,700 and subsequent profit-taking.
- The first cryptocurrency's weekly low is around $62,400.
- Spot Bitcoin-ETFs showed a net inflow of $32.1 million, ending the outflow streak; the IBIT fund performed the strongest.
- Ethereum funds lost about $18.65 million, and $ETH market share continued to decline.
- Forced liquidations over the past 24 hours amounted to approximately $280-316 million, affecting about 90,000 traders.
- The US Senate did not have time to consider the CLARITY Act before the August recess, so the market became more cautious about the law's chances of passing in 2026.
The Fed Took a Pause but Gave the Market a Hard Signal
The Federal Open Market Committee left the key rate unchanged in the 3.50-3.75% corridor on July 29. At first glance, this is a neutral decision, but the details of the vote changed the market's perception. Three regional Fed presidents supported a 25 basis point hike — the highest number of dissenters from a more dovish line since 2016.
The reason for the regulator's caution is inflation around 4.1% and ongoing economic growth. This combination reduces the likelihood of a swift transition to accommodative monetary policy. For cryptocurrencies, this is an important factor: the longer rates remain high, the more cautious investors are about risky assets.
Additional pressure came from the debt market. US public debt exceeded 100% of GDP for the first time since World War II, Treasury yields rose, and stock indices moved in different directions. In this environment, cryptocurrencies remained in a broad consolidation, awaiting a new catalyst for a strong move.
Bitcoin Defends $64,000: Where Key Levels Lie
Bitcoin's reaction to the Fed meeting was sharp but short-lived. Initially, the price rose from $63,700 to almost $64,700, then some players took profits, and quotes returned to the $64,000 zone. This level currently remains a psychological market support.
- The nearest support zone is located in the $63,000-63,500 area, and buyers have defended it all week.
- The main resistance lies around $66,000 — near the local July highs.
- Bitcoin's market capitalization is estimated at about $1.28 trillion, maintaining the asset's leading role in the market.
Bitcoin is still almost 49% short of its all-time high of $126,080. Therefore, 2026 remains a period of deep correction for the asset. However, the return of institutional demand through ETFs, the absence of mass capitulation, and the White House's plans to create a strategic cryptocurrency reserve support a recovery scenario in the second half of the year.
From a technical point of view, not only the current price is important for the market, but also the quality of demand. If inflows into funds persist and liquidity does not deteriorate, the $63,000-66,000 zone could become a base for the next attempt at growth.
ETFs Show Rotation: Capital Chooses Bitcoin Again
Exchange-traded fund data for July 29 showed a noticeable reshuffle within the crypto market. Institutional investors once again increased positions in Bitcoin but continued to reduce investments in Ethereum.
- Spot Bitcoin-ETFs attracted $32.1 million in net capital — the first positive day after an outflow streak.
- Ethereum-ETFs recorded an outflow of about $18.65 million, continuing the weak trend of recent weeks.
- Solana funds received about $19 million in inflows — one of the best results among altcoin products.
- Products on $XRP showed a small but positive inflow of about $0.58 million.
This picture suggests not a complete flight from altcoins, but a more selective approach. In conditions of macroeconomic uncertainty, large participants more often choose Bitcoin as the main asset of the crypto market, but interest in Solana shows that demand for individual high-liquidity stories persists.
Ethereum Under Pressure, But Network Maintains Strong Metrics
Ethereum is trading around $1,900, and its market share is declining due to capital rotation into Bitcoin. The price dynamic looks weaker than that of the first cryptocurrency, but the network's fundamental indicators remain resilient.
More than 2.5 million $ETH, or about 2% of the circulating supply, are awaiting entry into staking. The validator queue is stretched over approximately 44 days, while demand for exit is almost absent. This is an important signal: despite the weak price, long-term participants continue to lock coins within the network.
An additional factor for institutional demand could be the launch of cash payouts of staking rewards through the Grayscale fund, expected in early August. If this mechanism attracts new capital, pressure on Ethereum could ease.
Top-10 Cryptocurrencies: Current Picture
In the top ten by capitalization, movements remain mixed. Some assets hold key levels, while others continue to trade under pressure.
Cryptocurrency | Current Price | Capitalization/Features | Key Levels/Remarks
Bitcoin (BTC) | around $64,000 | capitalization ~$1.28 trillion | consolidation below $66,000 resistance
Ethereum ($ETH) | around $1,900 | market share declining | sideways movement
Tether ($USDT) | around $1 | one of the main settlement and market liquidity tools | maintains its peg to the dollar
$BNB ($BNB) | around $572 | support from the 36th quarterly burn, 1.62 million coins withdrawn from circulation | asset holds near current levels
$XRP ($XRP) | around $1.08 | asset remains in consolidation | $1.05–1.11 range
Solana ($SOL) | around $74 | funds on $SOL continue to attract capital | buyers defend the $73–74 zone
USD Coin (USDC) | around $1 | stablecoin and the second most important dollar asset in the market | maintains its role as a settlement tool
TRON (TRX) | around $0.32 | one of the few large assets with positive dynamics since the beginning of the year | supported by leadership in $USDT transfers
Dogecoin (DOGE) | around $0.069 | meme segment remains under pressure | weak dynamics persist
Cardano (ADA) | around $0.165 | asset trades near support | support at $0.164, resistance around $0.173
Why Bitcoin's Technical Context is Important for Investors
How Bitcoin Works
Bitcoin is a digital currency and payment system that operates without a central governing body. Its foundation is the blockchain: a shared chain of transaction records maintained by network participants. This approach makes the system decentralized: rules are set by the protocol, not by a bank, company, or government intermediary.
Each transaction enters a block, after which the network verifies it and adds it to the shared ledger. Network nodes store copies of this ledger, and cryptography helps protect data from tampering. Bitcoin's history is linked to Satoshi Nakamoto, the publication of the whitepaper, the first transactions, and the development of the peer-to-peer network. In this logic, ideas from Hashcash and open-source software are also important.
Mining, Supply, and Halving
Mining is the process by which network participants use computing power to create new blocks and confirm transactions. For successfully adding a block, a miner receives a reward. Bitcoin's supply is limited to 21 million coins, so new coins appear only according to protocol rules, not by a centralized issuer's decision.
Halving is the regular reduction of the miner's reward for a new block. It occurs approximately every four years and reduces the rate of new coin issuance. Historically, such events heightened attention to Bitcoin because the market reassessed the balance between limited supply, demand, and liquidity.
Buying, Storing, Forecast, and Risks
Bitcoin can typically be purchased through cryptocurrency exchanges, P2P deals, and exchangers. On an exchange, an investor goes through registration, verification, funds deposit, and buys the asset via market or limit orders. Coins can be stored in hot wallets, cold wallets, and hardware devices. For security, two-factor authentication, protecting the seed phrase, and caution with storing large amounts on an exchange are important.
Bitcoin's high volatility is linked to limited supply, speculative demand, news, regulation, actions of large players, ETF inflows, and the state of market liquidity. By 2030, key factors for the long-term forecast will remain institutional demand, regulation, macroeconomic policy, infrastructure development, and the market's ability to maintain deep liquidity. The optimistic scenario relies on increased Bitcoin adoption, the base scenario on gradual recovery after corrections, and the negative scenario on pressure from rates, regulation, and weak risk appetite.
Investors should also consider risks: sharp price movements, changes in rules by regulators, technical failures, cyberattacks, loss of access to a wallet, and the absence of familiar guarantees or insurance. Therefore, Bitcoin is often considered separately from traditional instruments like stocks or cash, although its price is most often expressed in US dollars. Market stability is influenced by electricity costs, order book depth on cryptocurrency exchanges, wallet holder behavior, and Bitcoin's distinction from forks like Bitcoin Cash.
Regulation: CLARITY Act Delayed Until Fall
The main legislative intrigue of July ended with a pause. The US Senate did not have time to bring the CLARITY Act to a vote before the August recess. After this, participants in prediction markets significantly lowered the probability of the document passing before the end of 2026.
At the same time, the regulatory backdrop cannot be called completely negative. The SEC and CFTC previously confirmed that 16 major digital assets are not securities, and the US administration officially solidified its course towards creating a strategic reserve in Bitcoin. Therefore, the market will likely await new regulatory signals in September.
Security and Corporate News
Operational risks reminded of themselves again. The Ostium platform disclosed data on an OTC hack worth $24 million and emphasized that smart contracts were not affected. A separate incident involved Senator Cynthia Lummis's verified account on social network X: it was used to promote a fraudulent meme token.
Important news also appeared on the corporate front. Hyperliquid attracted its first Japanese corporate buyer of tokens, and Luno announced new layoffs as part of restructuring. These events show that the industry continues to grow while simultaneously optimizing costs.
What Could Move the Market on the Last Day of July
The final trading session of the month will be influenced by US macro statistics. Investors await data on inflation and consumer spending, which will help assess the future trajectory of the Fed rate.
The base scenario for Bitcoin is movement within the $63,000–66,000 range. A breakout of the upper boundary supported by new ETF inflows could pave the way for recovery. Conversely, harsh macro data could return quotes to weekly lows.
For medium-term investors, key benchmarks remain unchanged:
- Bitcoin's resilience above $63,000.
- Ethereum holding above $1,860.
- Continuation of institutional inflows.
If these conditions persist, the market will receive the first signs of forming a base for recovery in the second half of 2026.
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