Odaily Guest Market Analyst Conaldo, Master of Financial Statistics from Columbia University, USA, focused on quantitative trading of US stocks during university and gradually expanded to digital assets such as Bitcoin, building a systematic quantitative trading model and risk control system through practical experience; possesses keen data insight into market fluctuations and is committed to continuous development in the professional trading field, pursuing stable returns; will delve into BTC technical, macro, and capital changes weekly, review and demonstrate practical strategies, and preview major upcoming events for reference.
Core Summary:
• From a macro technical perspective (see Figure 3 below): In the Bitcoin daily chart, the upward trend line representing the long-term bull market (since the end of 2022) and the downward trend line defining the recent correction (since the October 2025 high) are about to converge. The market is currently in a period of repair and volatility after breaking the long-term trend. Bitcoin's price is under dual pressure. Unless the price breaks through this dual pressure with strong volume, all upward movements can only be considered rebounds within a bearish pattern. The effective breakthrough of these two key trend lines will serve as the ultimate basis for judging the market's medium-term direction.
• Core View Validation: The core judgment proposed last week that "the market will most likely transition into a volatile adjustment pattern" was highly consistent with the actual market movement. The bulls and bears repeatedly contested the $87,500~$89,000 area, and the mid-week adjustment low of $84,456 had a relative error rate of about 1.18% compared to the predicted support area upper limit of $83,500.
• Strategy Execution Results Validation: Last week's trading strictly followed the established strategy, successfully completing four operations, achieving a cumulative return of 2.14%.
The following will review the market prediction, strategy execution, and specific trading process in detail.
I. Bitcoin Market Review Last Week (12.15~12.21)
1. Last Week's Trend Prediction and Operation Strategy Review:
Last week's forward-looking analysis clearly stated: The market will most likely transition into a volatile adjustment pattern. Among them, the $87,500~$89,000 area was defined as the key observation area. The outcome of the battle between bulls and bears here would directly determine the market's short-term direction choice. Special attention was needed: if this area was effectively broken below, it would directly affect the subsequent intensity and depth of the coin price adjustment. Below is the strategy review and analysis.
1. Market Trend Prediction Review:
• Core Pressure Level: First pressure looking at the $92,500~$94,500 area; second pressure looking at the $96,500~$98,500 area.
• Core Support Level: First support looking at the $87,500~$89,000 area; second support looking at the $80,000~$83,500 area.
2. Operation Strategy Review:
• Medium-term Strategy: Maintain a medium-term position (short) of about 65%.
• Short-term Strategy: To cope with the market trend, we initially drafted two short-term operation plans, A/B. Based on the actual evolution of the market, we ultimately executed Plan B as the core strategy.
• Opening Position: If the coin price falls below the $87,500~$89,000 area and is confirmed, establish a 30% short position.
• Risk Control: Stop loss set above $89,000.
• Closing Position: When the coin price falls to the $80,000~$83,500 area and shows resistance, close all short positions to take profits.
2. Last week, four short-term operations were successfully completed according to the plan (Figure 1), achieving a cumulative return of 2.14%. Specific transaction details and review are as follows:
Bitcoin 30-minute K-line chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Spread Trading Model)
Figure 1
1. Transaction Details Summary:
2. Short-term Trading Review:
• First Transaction (Profit 0.73%): We strictly adhered to the idea of "effectively breaking through key points and going short with the trend." When the trigger condition was met, the spread trading model simultaneously issued a top signal. Based on this, we decisively established a 30% short position and finally took profits when the price fell near the previous low area.
• Second and Third Transactions (Cumulative Profit 1.41%): Based on the operation mode of "going short upon encountering resistance at the core pressure area during a rebound." When the coin price hit the $87,500~$89,000 area and encountered resistance, combined with resonance signals from both models, these two transactions were successfully completed.
• Fourth Transaction (Profit 0): The logic for opening the position was consistent with the previous two transactions. It must be emphasized that in this transaction, we strictly executed the principle of "immediately moving the stop loss to the opening cost price when the floating profit reaches 1%", resulting in the position being closed at breakeven.
II. Quantitative Technical Analysis: Based on Multi-Model and Multi-Dimensional Operations
Combining last week's market performance, the author will conduct an in-depth analysis of the evolution of Bitcoin's internal structure using multi-dimensional analysis models.
Bitcoin Weekly K-line Chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Sentiment Quantitative Model)
Figure 2
1. As shown in (Figure 2), analysis from the weekly chart:
• Momentum Quantitative Model: After last week's adjustment, the two momentum indicator lines continue to operate below the zero axis. Although the rebound in the previous weeks prevented the negative momentum bars from expanding significantly, the current market structure remains weak, and we need to be vigilant about the risk of further release of adjustment pressure.
Momentum Quantitative Model Indicates: Coin price decline index: High
• Sentiment Quantitative Model: Blue sentiment line value 50.46, strength zero; yellow sentiment line value 23.16, strength zero, peak value is 0.
Sentiment Quantitative Model Indicates: Coin price pressure and support index: Neutral
• Digital Monitoring Model: The chart shows that the coin price has been below the bull-bear (yellow-blue line) dividing line for 5 weeks, increasing the probability of an effective break. Short-term bottom digital signals (above 9) have not yet appeared.
The above data indicates: Bitcoin is in a downward trend, entering a bear market on the weekly level, beware of adjustment risks.
Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart:
Figure 3
2. As shown in (Figure 3), analysis from the daily chart:
• Momentum Quantitative Model: In last week's行情, the two momentum lines experienced a repeated crossover process of "golden cross—dead cross—golden cross" below the zero axis. Trading volume did not放大, and the positive momentum bars did not grow significantly.
Momentum Quantitative Model Indicates: Fierce battle between bulls and bears for market control, weak buying momentum.
• Sentiment Quantitative Model: After last week's daily close, blue sentiment line value 17, strength zero; yellow sentiment line value 45, strength zero.
Sentiment Quantitative Model Indicates: Pressure and support index: Neutral
The above data suggests: The daily level is in a bear market, short-term market movements will still be反复.
III. This Week's Market Prediction (12.22~12.28)
1. The market is expected to mainly present a wide-range volatile pattern this week. The core observation interval is $89,500~$91,000. The outcome of the battle for this area will determine the short-term direction:
• If effectively broken below: It will mean the adjustment intensity strengthens, and the expected adjustment range will expand, and the周期 will also延长.
• If effectively held above: The market is expected to continue its volatile rebound, but the rebound space is expected to be relatively limited.
2. Core Pressure Levels:
• First Pressure Area: $89,500~$91,000 area
• Second Pressure Area: $93,000~$94,500 area
• Important Pressure Area: Around $97,000
3. Core Support Levels:
• First Support Level: $86,500~$87,500 area
• Second Support Level: $83,500~$84,500 area
• Important Support Level: Around $80,000.
IV. This Week's Operation Strategy (Excluding Sudden News Impact)(12.22~12.28)
1. Medium-term Strategy: Maintain a medium-term position (short) of about 65%.
2. Short-term Strategy: Use 30% of the position, set stop loss points, and look for "spread" opportunities based on support and pressure levels. (Using 30-minute as the operation cycle).
3. Focus on observing the battle between bulls and bears for the $89,500~$91,000 area and its outcome. To cope with the market行情, we have drafted two short-term operation plans, A/B:
• Plan A: If this area is effectively held above:
• Opening Position: If the coin price rebounds to the $93,000~$94,500 area and encounters resistance, establish a 30% short position.
• Risk Control: Short stop loss set above $96,000.
• Closing Position: When the coin price falls to the $89,500~$91,000 area and shows resistance, close all short positions to take profits.
• Plan B: If this area is effectively broken below:
• Opening Position: If the coin price falls below this area and is confirmed, establish a 30% short position.
• Risk Control: Stop loss set above $92,000.
• Closing Position: When the coin price falls to the $83,500~$84,500 area and shows resistance, consider partially or fully closing the position to take profits.
V. Special Notes
1. When opening a position: Immediately set the initial stop loss level.
2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop loss to the opening cost price (breakeven point) to ensure principal safety.
3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop loss to the position of 1% profit.
4. Continuous Tracking: Thereafter, for every additional 1% profit the coin price makes, move the stop loss同步 by 1%, dynamically protecting and locking in existing profits.
(Note: The above 1% profit trigger threshold can be flexibly adjusted by investors according to their own risk preferences and标的 volatility.)
VI. This Week's Macro Outlook and Key Events (12.22~12.28|Christmas Week)
1. Christmas Holiday Compresses Trading Hours, Liquidity Significantly Decreases
US stocks will close early on Wednesday and be closed all day Thursday this week. The holiday factor combined with year-end settlement results in overall lower market liquidity. Prices are more easily driven by sentiment and one-sided funds. Be wary of "false breakouts" and amplified short-term fluctuations under low trading volume.
2. Fed Chair Nomination Expectations Heat Up, Policy Continuity Becomes Market Focus
The market is watching whether Trump will announce the next Fed Chair nominee during the Christmas holiday. Currently, Kevin Hassett is seen as the明显领先 probability nominee, and his policy stance is considered偏向 "predictable gradual adjustment."
(If the nomination is announced, it will help stabilize interest rate expectations and risk appetite in the short term; if an unexpected candidate emerges, it may cause阶段性波动 in interest rates and the US dollar.)
3. US Q3 Data Finale, Verifying the "Soft Landing" Narrative
The revised US Q3 GDP, personal consumption expenditure, and core PCE data released on Tuesday will be used to confirm whether economic resilience and the inflation path are consistent with previous judgments.
(If the revisions are温和, the market will more easily maintain pricing for next year's interest rate cut path; if there are significant upward revisions, it may重新抬升 long-term rates.)
4. Employment Data as a Marginal Observation Indicator at Year-End
The initial jobless claims released on Wednesday, while not having trend significance, remain an auxiliary signal for observing whether the labor market is loosening around the holidays.
(Currently more偏向 "stable rather than deteriorating", the impact on the market is expected to be limited.)
5. BOJ Dynamics Provide Global Liquidity Reference
BOJ Governor Ueda's speech and the November unemployment rate data will continue to affect the market's judgment on the pace of Japan's monetary policy normalization.
(If yen volatility放大, it may cause emotional disturbance to global risk assets, especially US stocks and the crypto market.)
Financial markets are changing rapidly, all market analysis and trading strategies need to be adjusted dynamically. All views, analysis models, and operation strategies involved in this article are derived from personal technical analysis and are for personal trading log purposes only. They do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. The market has risks, investment needs to be cautious, DYOR.
