Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin lags as investors shift toward stocks after the US and China strike a deal that could end the current trade war.
- Macroeconomic conditions are swinging away from gold investing and back to stocks.
Bitcoin (BTC) reached its highest price in over three months at $105,720 on May 12, but was unable to maintain its bullish momentum. Interestingly, the drop to $102,000 came after a temporary easing in the US-China tariff conflict. This has left traders puzzled as to why Bitcoin reacted negatively to what seemed like positive developments.
The 90-day truce reduced import tariffs, and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that the agreement could be extended, provided there is a genuine effort and constructive dialogue. According to Yahoo Finance, the topics under discussion include “currency manipulation,” “steel price dumping,” and restrictions on semiconductor exports.
Bitcoin/USD (orange) vs. S&P 500 futures (red) and gold (blue). Source: TradingView / CointelegraphPart of Bitcoin’s recent lack of momentum can be attributed to its 24% gains over the previous 30 days, during which S&P 500 futures rose 7% and gold remained flat. Investors see little reason for further divergence between Bitcoin and traditional markets, especially since the 30-day correlation with the stock market remains high at 83%.
Additionally, Bitcoin has now surpassed the market capitalization of both silver and Google, making it the world’s sixth-largest tradable asset.
World’s largest tradable assets, USD. Source: 8marketcapNews that Strategy acquired another 13,390 BTC between May 5 and May 11 has also raised concerns among investors. With BlackRock and Strategy together holding 1.19 million BTC, about 6% of the circulating supply, some traders worry that Michael Saylor’s company is largely responsible for supporting the price.
Critics, such as Peter Schiff, predict that Strategy’s ever-increasing average purchase price could eventually lead to losses and force the company to sell some of its holdings to cover borrowing costs. However, this scenario seems unlikely, as the company has doubled its capital increase limit by $21 billion in stocks and another $21 billion in debt.
Bitcoin stalls as macroeconomic events favor stocks over gold
While traders often focus on Bitcoin-specific events, the most likely reason for the weakness near $105,000 is broader macroeconomic conditions. Although the pause in tariffs directly benefits the stock market, the effect on scarce assets like Bitcoin is somewhat negative. For example, gold fell 3.4% on May 12 as the demand for safe-haven assets declined.
Gold/USD (left) vs. DXY US Dollar Index (right). Source: TradingView / CointelegraphGold has typically shown an inverse correlation with the US Dollar Index (DXY), which climbed to its highest level in 30 days on May 12. The strengthening US dollar signals investor confidence, despite a 0.3% decline in US first-quarter Gross Domestic Product and a 6.1% jump in pending home sales in March compared to the previous month.
The lack of conviction among Bitcoin investors when prices traded near $105,000 is at least partly due to reduced demand for scarce assets, as investors view the stock market as a more immediate and direct beneficiary of the US-China trade deal. Lower import duties suggest higher revenues and potentially improved profit margins for companies.
Given the impressive $2 billion in inflows into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) between May 1 and May 9, the likelihood of a price drop below $100,000 remains low. The steady demand for Bitcoin following a 24% monthly gain points to institutional adoption rather than retail-driven FOMO, which is a very positive sign for the price.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
