Author: Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research at Bitwise
Translation: Luffy, Foresight News
Every quarter, we release the "Bitwise Crypto Market Review," a report containing over 50 charts covering comprehensive data on market performance, on-chain fundamentals, institutional adoption, and more.
Data always outlines the full picture of the industry. Sometimes it shows purely bullish or bearish signals, but more often, it's a mix of both, with bright spots and downsides coexisting, worthy of in-depth analysis. The second quarter was such a case: fundamentals like crypto business revenue, real-world asset adoption, and institutional engagement all improved significantly, crypto-related stocks surged, yet the prices of mainstream crypto assets declined overall. How should we understand this divergent market behavior?
If you want to quickly grasp the core conclusions, here are what I consider to be the five most important charts.
Crypto-Related Stocks and Cryptocurrencies Showed Severe Divergence
In the first half of 2026, the overall crypto asset market fell by 36%; during the same period, only gold declined, down 7%, while all other major asset classes rose. This is also why this crypto bear market has been particularly tough: only the crypto sector was under pressure.
In stark contrast, however, crypto-related stocks cumulatively rose 23% in the first half of the year, outperforming all major assets except emerging market stocks. The Bitwise Crypto Innovators 30 Index, which tracks 30 leading publicly traded crypto companies, achieved returns more than double that of the S&P 500.
This data sends a key signal: even in a bear market, the crypto industry is still full of investment opportunities. Bitcoin mining companies are benefiting from the AI industry boom; stablecoin issuers and asset tokenization platforms continue to onboard Wall Street business; the integration between traditional finance and the crypto market is deepening. I predict a recovery in cryptocurrency prices in the second half of the year, but the first-half performance has already confirmed one fact: crypto is not a single asset class; the ecosystem is diverse and dynamic, requiring a broader perspective.
Performance Comparison: Cryptocurrencies vs. Major Asset Classes, Data Source: Bitwise, Bloomberg; Statistics as of June 30, 2026
Crypto Application Revenue is Substantial
Over the past 12 months, the top ten global crypto applications collectively generated $5.9 billion in revenue; the top three, PancakeSwap, Hyperliquid, and Aave, each generated close to $1 billion in revenue individually.
Even in a bear market, these products remain viable business entities with stable cash flows, with revenue coming from transaction fees, lending interest, and staking rewards. Whenever someone questions whether the crypto industry has any real fundamentals, I show them this chart.
Top Ten Crypto Applications by Revenue, Data Source: Bitwise, Token Terminal; Statistics period: Jan 1, 2025 – Jun 30, 2026
Real-World Asset (RWA) Tokenization Enters a Bull Market
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly stated weeks ago: "Digital assets, stablecoins, asset tokenization, and new payment systems will collectively shape the future of the monetary system."
In a sense, the future he described is already here. In Q2, the total value of tokenized real-world assets reached a record high of $33 billion, up 12% quarter-over-quarter and 45% year-to-date; the main drivers of growth were tokenized U.S. Treasuries, corporate credit, equities, and venture capital shares.
This chart clearly shows that leading global asset managers are moving real-world assets onto the blockchain on a large scale, a trend worth continuous tracking.
Value of Tokenized Real-World Assets (RWA), Data Source: Bitwise Asset Management, RWA.xyz; Statistics period: Jan 1, 2020 – Jun 30, 2026
Prediction Market Scale Continues to Expand
In Q2, prediction market open interest hit a record high of $1.8 billion, with sporting events becoming the core trading category; quarterly total trading volume also hit a new record, reaching $43 billion.
Platforms like Polymarket reflect a hidden aspect of crypto retail adoption: millions of users leverage crypto's underlying infrastructure to bet on real-world event outcomes, but the vast majority of users are unaware of and indifferent to the blockchain technology behind it.
With the approaching U.S. midterm elections, I predict that prediction market trading volume and open interest will hit new historical highs multiple times this year. The 2024 election theme is what brought prediction markets into the public spotlight, after which the industry's size tripled directly.
Prediction Market Open Interest Change, Data Source: Bitwise, Blockworks; Statistics period: Jan 1, 2023 – Jun 30, 2026
Crypto-Related Stocks Have Low Correlation with Mainstream Assets
Returning to crypto-related stocks, the most valuable chart shows the 90-day rolling correlation of the Bitwise Crypto Innovators 30 Index with various assets. The key highlight is that, compared to the broader U.S. stock market, this index has a lower correlation with most assets — developed market stocks, emerging market stocks, U.S. REITs, U.S. Treasuries, and gold. The only exception is commodities, where the correlation is negative.
In short, in the first half of 2026, crypto-related stock returns were double those of the U.S. stock market, while also showing low correlation with most assets in an investment portfolio. This combination of high returns and risk diversification is precisely what institutional investors favor for portfolio allocation.
Comparison of 90-Day Rolling Correlations Across Asset Classes, Data Source: Bitwise, Bloomberg; Statistics as of June 30, 2026
Conclusion
The above is my complete interpretation of the Q2 market. The over 50 charts in the report cannot directly answer the market's most pressing question: Have crypto prices bottomed out? However, all the data collectively prove that the fundamentals of the crypto industry are extremely resilient. Even during the bear market cycle, user base, business revenue, and institutional adoption continue to grow.
The current stage the industry is in holds immense research value and is the foundation for the next bull market.
