Lasting 233 Days with Over 50% Drawdown, Is This the Mildest Bear Market to Date?
Bitcoin's current bear market has lasted 233 days as of June 24, making it the fourth-longest cycle since 2014, defined by its price staying below the 200-day moving average (200 DMA) for over 30 days. Historically, the longest bear markets were in 2018-2019 (385 days) and 2022-2023 (381 days), driven by major structural crashes post-all-time highs. In contrast, the current 2025-2026 downturn, following Bitcoin's January 2025 peak of $124,773, appears driven by broader macro shifts like rising interest rates and fading post-halving momentum.
This cycle is notably the mildest on record so far, with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 51.2%. Previous major bear markets saw declines between 76.7% and 83.6%. Even the sharp but brief 2020 COVID crash caused a 74.4% drop. As of the analysis date, Bitcoin's price is $62,651, about 22% below its 200 DMA of $76,450. A sustained rally of over one-fifth is needed to reclaim this key level. If the recent low of $60,861 on June 7, 2026, is confirmed as the cycle bottom, historical recovery patterns suggest reclaiming the 200 DMA could take from 65 to 166 days, potentially placing it around August 2026 at the earliest.
marsbit06/26 03:54
