# Пов'язані статті щодо Petrodollar

Центр новин HTX надає останні статті та поглиблений аналіз на тему "Petrodollar", що охоплює ринкові тренди, оновлення проєктів, технологічні розробки та регуляторну політику в криптоіндустрії.

Arthur Hayes' New Article: It's 'No-Trade Zone' Time

Arthur Hayes argues that the current market is in a "no-trade zone," a period of high uncertainty created by two converging forces: the deflationary shock from AI and the inflationary shock from geopolitics. AI agents are rapidly displacing knowledge workers, eroding their incomes and creditworthiness, which will eventually trigger a deflationary financial crisis in consumer credit-dependent Western economies. Simultaneously, the war in the Middle East, particularly the potential disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, threatens global energy supplies and could force nations to abandon the dollar system. Hayes outlines three main scenarios: 1) A return to normalcy, where the deflationary AI shock remains the primary concern; 2) The "Tehran Toll Booth," where Iran controls the Strait and demands payment in gold or yuan, accelerating the end of dollar hegemony; and 3) "Empire Strikes Back," where the US destroys Iran's capabilities but risks a catastrophic regional war that sends commodity prices soaring. In all but the most extreme scenarios, Hayes posits that the key driver for Bitcoin's price will be the *quantity* of money, not its price (interest rates). He expects that governments, forced to fund wars and stockpile resources, will have to print money, expanding the money supply. This would be bullish for fixed-supply assets like Bitcoin, even if it occurs alongside rising rates. However, he cautions that until this liquidity is explicitly unleashed (e.g., when bond market volatility spikes), the risk/reward for new long positions is poor. His current strategy is to wait for a clear signal of monetary expansion before deploying capital, preferring to hold gold and select crypto assets in the meantime.

marsbit04/20 00:13

Arthur Hayes' New Article: It's 'No-Trade Zone' Time

marsbit04/20 00:13

Iran's Impact on the Dollar: The Perfect Storm of Petrodollars

The report analyzes the profound impact of the Iran conflict on the petrodollar system, the cornerstone of dollar hegemony since 1974. It argues that the system, where global oil purchases in dollars lead to surplus recycling into U.S. Treasuries, is under unprecedented strain from three layers of pressure: pre-existing structural cracks, new shocks from the conflict, and the long-term threat of energy transition. Key structural cracks include the U.S. no longer being the primary buyer of Middle Eastern oil due to its shale revolution, Saudi Arabia's push for defense autonomy, the development of alternative payment infrastructure like Project mBridge, and sanctions driving de-dollarization. The conflict itself is damaging U.S. security credibility, shifting control of the Strait of Hormuz, and potentially forcing a shift to yuan-for-oil arrangements. The analysis details five complex mechanisms linking oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields, which can push in opposite directions. Crucially, the old logic is failing: oil producers, damaged by conflict, may become net sellers of U.S. debt to fund reconstruction, just as U.S. fiscal deficits and debt supply surge. While short-term buffers exist, like U.S. energy independence, the long-term trend points towards a world with less dollar dominance. The core conclusion is that a world focused on defense and energy self-sufficiency will inherently hold fewer dollar reserves, signaling a slow but structural decline in the petrodollar system.

marsbit04/13 10:01

Iran's Impact on the Dollar: The Perfect Storm of Petrodollars

marsbit04/13 10:01

Why Robert Kiyosaki’s bullish Bitcoin thesis faces a crucial test this week

Robert Kiyosaki draws a historical parallel between the 2026 and 1974 cycles, when the U.S. dollar transitioned to a petrodollar. He argues that current macro pressures—rising oil prices, U.S. debt, inflation, and unemployment risks—strengthen the case for hard assets like Bitcoin and gold as hedges. This week is critical, with key data releases like the March CPI report likely to increase market volatility. Notably, capital flows are rotating from gold back into Bitcoin, a shift highlighted by Fidelity. This reversal, combined with ongoing liquidity injections by the Federal Reserve, may position Bitcoin for bullish price action. Kiyosaki’s thesis faces a test this week, as macro uncertainty could actually benefit BTC, making it a potential standout beneficiary in a volatile environment.

ambcrypto04/06 09:10

Why Robert Kiyosaki’s bullish Bitcoin thesis faces a crucial test this week

ambcrypto04/06 09:10

The Oil Order is Breaking Apart: What Happens Next in the Middle East?

The article analyzes the breakdown of the longstanding implicit bargain that underpinned Middle Eastern oil and security order: the U.S. would not target Iran's regime, and Iran would not disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. This equilibrium shattered after a U.S.-Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025, which Iran viewed as crossing a red line. In response, Iran initiated a "selective blockade" of the Strait in 2026, allowing some ships (e.g., Chinese, Russian) passage while blocking others. The U.S. military buildup, including deploying a "lightning carrier" and planning a potential ground assault on Iran's oil terminals, has failed to reopen the Strait. The crisis is reshaping global alliances, as Iran uses transit permits as diplomatic leverage. Key structural shifts are underway: the Saudi activation of alternative oil pipelines, the erosion of the U.S. security guarantee, and a challenge to dollar-denominated oil trade. Two potential paths are outlined: a major ground war or a de-escalation through deterrence and backchannel talks. Regardless, the conflict is expected to be prolonged, with lasting impacts on energy routes, global inflation, and the petrodollar system.

marsbit03/26 10:48

The Oil Order is Breaking Apart: What Happens Next in the Middle East?

marsbit03/26 10:48

Behind the Gold's Pullback Lies a More Significant Issue: The Loosening of the Old System

Gold's recent pullback has drawn superficial comparisons to the 1979 cycle, but the underlying global dynamics have fundamentally shifted. In 1979, gold fell due to extreme Fed rate hikes under Volcker and a renewed belief in U.S. credit stability, which attracted capital back to dollar assets. Today, the situation is inverted. The U.S. faces massive debt, uncontrolled deficits, and a financial system hypersensitive to interest rates. The critical change is the structural challenge to the dollar-centric system itself, particularly the petrodollar cycle. The ongoing Middle East conflict is not an isolated event but a self-reinforcing crisis that disrupts energy flows, elevates costs, and strains fiscal capacities—undermining the dollar’s role in global energy trade. This suggests that the recent gold sell-off is a short-term profit-taking move after a strong rally, rather than a loss of long-term value. The broader narrative is one of a deteriorating monetary order: the U.S. can no longer easily suppress inflation with high rates or assert global dominance as before. As the world reassesses the entire credit system, gold is poised to assume a new role as a hedge against systemic fragility.

Odaily星球日报03/23 12:13

Behind the Gold's Pullback Lies a More Significant Issue: The Loosening of the Old System

Odaily星球日报03/23 12:13

In the Eyes of Algorithms, Oil and Memecoin Are No Different

In 1974, Henry Kissinger’s “petrodollar” deal with Saudi Arabia helped sustain the global dominance of the U.S. dollar after the collapse of the gold standard. Fifty years later, oil markets are being shaken not by physical supply chains, but by digital signals. A single social media post by U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright on X triggered a flash crash in oil prices. He claimed the U.S. Navy had escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global oil transit. Within minutes, WTI crude fell 17%, erasing billions in market value. The post was soon deleted after a White House denial, and prices partially rebounded, but the damage was done. The incident highlights how algorithmic trading systems now drive market reactions. Algorithms scanned the post, detected keywords like “Navy,” “escorted,” and “Hormuz,” and executed sell orders in milliseconds—far faster than human traders could react. Oil, once governed by physical supply and geopolitical agreements, now behaves like a meme-driven instrument, vulnerable to unverified information. This event underscores a broader shift: the “memefication” of assets. In an age of AI and social media, even traditional commodities like oil can be swayed by narratives, emotions, and digital misinformation. The very foundations of market consensus have grown fragile, accelerated by algorithms that trade on speed, not substance. Perhaps, in the end, the meme has won.

marsbit03/12 03:37

In the Eyes of Algorithms, Oil and Memecoin Are No Different