# Пов'язані статті щодо Oil Prices

Центр новин HTX надає останні статті та поглиблений аналіз на тему "Oil Prices", що охоплює ринкові тренди, оновлення проєктів, технологічні розробки та регуляторну політику в криптоіндустрії.

A 30% Chance of a Fed Rate Hike Next Week?

Amid rising oil prices and a lack of clear guidance from the Federal Reserve, markets are repricing policy risk. While most economists expect the Fed to hold rates steady next week, interest rate markets now imply roughly a 30% probability of a hike, pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher across the curve. The 2-year yield hit a new high since early 2025, the 10-year yield reached its highest level this year, and the 30-year yield neared its highest since 2007. However, a Citigroup report from July 23 argues this market pricing does not reflect a widespread bet on an imminent hike. Instead, it represents a higher risk premium demanded by investors to hedge against a potential policy surprise. The report explains that with forward guidance becoming more ambiguous and oil prices boosting inflation risks, uncertainty has increased. Historically, the risk premium around Fed meetings was negligible, but it has now grown as the Fed relies more on data-dependent communication. The lack of clear guidance means that even if the Fed stands pat, yields may not fall significantly, as this uncertainty premium could persist until a clearer communication framework is reestablished.

链捕手6 год тому

A 30% Chance of a Fed Rate Hike Next Week?

链捕手6 год тому

Bitcoin: Rising oil prices keep BTC in check – Long-term holders in limbo

Bitcoin faces mixed signals as it tests $64,500. While traditional investors added modest inflows, long-term holders (those holding coins for 155+ days) remain a focal point of caution. On-chain data shows this group is still selling at a loss, with their Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) at 0.94, indicating 6% losses—a significant improvement from earlier 27% losses but not yet a sign of full conviction. Market activity is currently dominated by short-term holders, as indicated by the Exchange Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric, suggesting a more relaxed selling phase. Exchange reserves have also declined slightly. However, macroeconomic risks pose a headwind. Rising oil prices, driven by Middle East tensions, threaten to reignite inflation concerns. This could dampen the risk-on sentiment crucial for Bitcoin and potentially lead US investors to reduce exposure via spot Bitcoin ETFs. The market's recovery hinges on balancing these improving on-chain dynamics against persistent external economic pressures.

ambcrypto07/21 04:02

Bitcoin: Rising oil prices keep BTC in check – Long-term holders in limbo

ambcrypto07/21 04:02

Fed Turns Hawkish, Wall Street Capitulates, Citi Stands as 'Last Holdout': Insists on Resuming Rate Cuts in October

Amid a surprisingly hawkish shift from the Fed and most of Wall Street capitulating on rate cut expectations, Citigroup stands as a notable outlier, holding firm to its forecast for monetary easing to restart this October. Following the June FOMC meeting, where the "dovish bias" was removed and the dot plot shifted dramatically, markets priced in nearly 37bps of tightening for 2026. Major banks like Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs revised their calls, predicting rate hikes as soon as September. Citigroup, however, maintains a baseline scenario for a 25bps rate cut in October, followed by two more cuts in December and January 2027. Its counter-consensus view rests on three key arguments: 1) Plunging oil prices are eliminating a major inflation upside risk. 2) Rising initial jobless claims are mirroring seasonal weakening patterns seen in 2024-2025, signaling a labor market cool-down. 3) The strong core PCE is an "outlier," heavily influenced by AI-related prices and equity market gains rather than broad consumer price pressures, with other inflation metrics showing more moderation. While Wall Street largely "surrenders" to the hawkish Fed narrative, with Deutsche Bank forecasting two hikes and Goldman Sachs warning of potential back-to-back moves, Citigroup remains the "last holdout," betting that disinflationary forces will pave the way for cuts before year-end.

marsbit06/22 10:39

Fed Turns Hawkish, Wall Street Capitulates, Citi Stands as 'Last Holdout': Insists on Resuming Rate Cuts in October

marsbit06/22 10:39

Market Trend (June 19): US-Iran Deal Drives Out Geopolitical Premium; Chip Stocks Soar to New Highs; Energy Sector Leads Declines

U.S. Market Trends (June 19): U.S.-Iran Deal Eases Tensions, Chip Stocks Soar, Energy Sector Leads Declines. U.S. stocks rallied on Thursday as the signing of a temporary U.S.-Iran deal in Geneva de-escalated Middle East tensions, with Saudi oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical relief helped markets recover from recent Fed-driven volatility. The S&P 500 rose over 1%, the Nasdaq gained nearly 2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at another record high. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged over 6% to a historic peak. Chip stocks were the standout performers. Reports of an Apple-Intel design and foundry deal for certain products, alongside mentions of potential Nvidia and SpaceX collaborations with Intel, propelled the sector. Intel surged ~10.5%, while memory chip makers like Micron also saw significant gains, highlighting sustained confidence in long-term AI capital expenditure. In contrast, the energy sector was the day's sole loser, with the S&P 500 energy sub-index declining as WTI crude fell ~2% to around $74.29/barrel. The reopening of key shipping routes erased prior geopolitical risk premiums. SpaceX extended losses for a second day on news of a potential large bond offering. Market volatility (VIX) dropped sharply, indicating a swift reversal of post-Fed jitters. Treasury yields dipped slightly but remained elevated. The focus now shifts to upcoming economic data, including next week's PCE inflation report and Micron's earnings, which will serve as a key test for the AI trade's durability.

marsbit06/19 02:05

Market Trend (June 19): US-Iran Deal Drives Out Geopolitical Premium; Chip Stocks Soar to New Highs; Energy Sector Leads Declines

marsbit06/19 02:05

Hormuz Strait Reopening: Will the Fed Turn "Dovish" and the Market Reprice "Rate Cuts"?

The article outlines two key factors that may lead the U.S. Federal Reserve, under Chair Wash, to adopt a more dovish stance at the upcoming FOMC meeting. First, the anticipated reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to ease oil and energy prices, thereby reducing upward inflationary pressures. This shift could lead the Fed to view energy prices as a neutral or even deflationary factor. Second, recent core CPI data showed significant cooling, with a monthly increase of only 0.21%, contrasting with the still-strong core PCE. This divergence supports a dovish interpretation. Market implications are significant. While the FOMC is expected to remove "easing bias" language and project unchanged rates for the year—moves already priced in—Chair Wash's potential for more dovish commentary presents an upside risk. Consequently, there is room for the market to further price out remaining hike expectations and increase expectations for rate cuts. The report notes that the 2-year Treasury yield, though down recently, remains well above February levels, indicating further potential downside as inflation risks fade.

marsbit06/16 03:04

Hormuz Strait Reopening: Will the Fed Turn "Dovish" and the Market Reprice "Rate Cuts"?

marsbit06/16 03:04

US CPI Preview: Overall Inflation May Break Through 4% to Hit a Three-Year High, While Core Inflation Could Be Significantly Below Expectations

US CPI Preview: Headline Inflation May Top 4%, Hitting Three-Year High, Core Could Fall Short of Expectations. Wall Street's major institutions (Goldman Sachs, UBS, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley) anticipate May's headline CPI year-over-year to rise sharply to the 4.17%-4.3% range from April's 3.81%, largely driven by a significant jump in energy prices due to recent geopolitical tensions. This could mark the highest level since April 2023. In contrast, core CPI (excluding food and energy) is forecast to increase only 0.17%-0.22% month-over-month, notably below the market consensus of 0.27%-0.30%. Key moderating factors include cooling shelter inflation (OER and rent) and weaker auto insurance prices, while used car prices are expected to be flat. However, upward pressures persist within core components. Airfare, IT goods, and some non-shelter services are expected to show strength, partially offsetting the cooling trends. This divergence makes the report complex for markets: high headline inflation from transient energy shocks versus a potentially softer underlying core trend. Market pricing via inflation swaps suggests a slightly higher-than-expected headline print, historically associated with a modest dollar rally post-release. Looking ahead, the trajectory for inflation remains highly dependent on future oil price movements.

marsbit06/10 10:15

US CPI Preview: Overall Inflation May Break Through 4% to Hit a Three-Year High, While Core Inflation Could Be Significantly Below Expectations

marsbit06/10 10:15

Nasdaq Plummets 4% Overnight, $1.3 Trillion Evaporated, U.S. Stocks Suffer Triple Blow

A severe market correction hit US stocks on June 5th, with the Nasdaq plunging 4.18%, erasing $1.3 trillion in chip stock value. The sell-off was triggered by three simultaneous factors. First, Broadcom's earnings report, while showing strong AI chip revenue growth of 143%, provided a Q3 AI revenue forecast that fell short of the most optimistic analyst expectations, casting doubt on the 'infinite AI growth' narrative and sparking a sector-wide rout. Second, a much stronger-than-expected May jobs report (172k vs. 80k expected) significantly increased market bets on a potential Federal Reserve rate hike instead of a cut, putting pressure on high-valuation tech stocks. Third, persistent high oil prices due to the ongoing Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruption continue to fuel inflation concerns, limiting the Fed's policy options. The combined effect attacked the core market pillars of boundless AI growth and expected monetary easing. While the暴跌 represents a significant valuation repricing, the underlying AI demand remains strong. The market's direction now hinges on the upcoming Fed meeting, further AI company guidance, and developments in the Iran conflict.

marsbit06/06 03:00

Nasdaq Plummets 4% Overnight, $1.3 Trillion Evaporated, U.S. Stocks Suffer Triple Blow

marsbit06/06 03:00

Is the Rebound an Illusion? The Bond Market Has Already Given the Answer

Is the stock market's rapid rebound to pre-war levels a sign of recovery or a misleading rally driven by momentum rather than fundamentals? While the S&P 500 has fully recovered its losses from the U.S.-Iran conflict and nears all-time highs, bond and oil markets tell a different story. Key data reveals contradictions: 10-year Treasury yields have risen 30 basis points, signaling persistent inflation concerns and constrained Fed policy space. WTI crude is up 37%, indicating that geopolitical risks are not priced to resolve soon. The 2-year Treasury yield, a sensitive gauge of rate expectations, has increased nearly 40 bps, challenging the narrative of imminent Fed rate cuts. The equity market appears to be pricing in a "perfect scenario": subdued oil impact on consumption, Fed rate cuts despite hot inflation, stable corporate margins, and near-term conflict resolution. However, bonds and oil reflect a reality of sticky inflation, limited Fed flexibility, and ongoing geopolitical tension. This divergence suggests the rally may be momentum-driven rather than fundamentally justified. If upcoming CPI data exceeds expectations (e.g., above 3.5%), the 2026 rate-cut narrative could collapse. Investors chasing the rally are betting on an ideal outcome—swift conflict resolution, controlled inflation, Fed easing, and resilient earnings—while ignoring signals from more cautious asset classes. The gap will likely close either through a fundamental improvement validating stocks or a market correction aligning with bond and oil realities.

marsbit04/16 07:05

Is the Rebound an Illusion? The Bond Market Has Already Given the Answer

marsbit04/16 07:05

Short-Term Rebound or Bull Market Return? What Do Traders Think?

The S&P 500 has rebounded nearly 10% from its March 27 low, with the Nasdaq posting a 10-day winning streak—its longest since 2021. Bitcoin surged past $76,000, and crypto-related stocks rallied. The market is showing a V-shaped recovery, but the question remains: is this a true bull market return or just a short-term rebound? Bullish analysts, including Tom Lee and Ed Yardeni, argue the bottom is in. Lee cites the U.S.-Iran ceasefire as a key factor, while Yardeni maintains a year-end S&P 500 target of 7700, stating "pessimism is now out of style." Goldman Sachs labels this a "marathon expansion," expecting a 12% earnings growth to form a "fundamental bottom," with AI driving nearly 40% of S&P 500 earnings growth. Morgan Stanley notes that bull markets in their fourth year historically deliver positive returns, with AI-driven productivity gains yet to fully diffuse. Bearish voices, led by Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett, caution that true market lows require extreme pessimism, which is absent now. Cash levels are low at 4.3%, and institutional investors remain overweight on stocks. Hartnett warns that oil’s 60% rise since the Iran war could hurt profits more than inflation data suggests. Goldman’s trading desk also views the rally as a technical rebound, not a trend, pending real-world oil shipping data from the Strait of Hormuz. Piper Sandler’s Michael Kantrowitz has stopped issuing year-end targets due to high uncertainty. The divide is clear: bulls see a fundamentals-driven bull run with earnings growth and geopolitical de-escalation, while bears see a sentiment-driven bounce with weak inflows—equity funds saw $15.4 billion in outflows last week. The key variable is the U.S.-Iran talks; a ceasefire extension could solidify the rally, but failure may trigger a drop. As Hartnett warns, "investors should not mistake a relief rally for a solution."

marsbit04/15 07:48

Short-Term Rebound or Bull Market Return? What Do Traders Think?

marsbit04/15 07:48

Hormuz Blockade, Oil Prices Surpass $100, Why Aren't U.S. Stocks Falling?

Amidst the U.S.-Iran negotiation breakdown and the subsequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel, the S&P 500 surprisingly rose by 1% on April 13, erasing all losses since the outbreak of the Iran conflict and reaching 6,886 points. Major financial institutions like J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock concurrently expressed bullish outlooks, emphasizing that corporate earnings resilience far outweighs geopolitical shocks. Data from LSEG I/B/E/S showed Q1 2026 earnings growth expectations for the S&P 500 increased to 13.9%, up from 12.7% pre-conflict. The "Magnificent Seven" tech giants saw their valuation premium narrow, making equities more attractive. Historical analysis from UBS and LPL Research indicates that geopolitical shocks typically see markets recover within six weeks. Meanwhile, retail investors on Reddit expressed confusion, questioning why negative news didn’t trigger declines, highlighting a disconnect between headline risks and market pricing. The consensus among institutions is that strong earnings and limited conflict impact justify buying the dip.

marsbit04/14 03:36

Hormuz Blockade, Oil Prices Surpass $100, Why Aren't U.S. Stocks Falling?

marsbit04/14 03:36

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