# Пов'язані статті щодо Macroeconomics

Центр новин HTX надає останні статті та поглиблений аналіз на тему "Macroeconomics", що охоплює ринкові тренди, оновлення проєктів, технологічні розробки та регуляторну політику в криптоіндустрії.

Analysts: "Another Bitcoin Drop Could Lead to a Reboot"

Crypto analysis firm DeFi Report, in its latest macroeconomic analysis, warns that a potential final wave of decline for Bitcoin could restructure the market and set the stage for a new bull cycle. While the US economy appears strong on the surface, bond market signals and economic indicators suggest the Federal Reserve may not be finished raising interest rates. Key vulnerabilities include a cooling labor market, low personal savings, and a significant drop in housing starts. Although Bitcoin has shown resilience around $65,000 compared to equities, analysts warn that a broader sell-off in risk assets, reflected in an 8-9% drop from the NASDAQ's peak, could impact crypto markets. The report suggests the crypto market has largely weathered its bear season but may face a final "rocky landing" capitulation wave under macroeconomic pressure. In this scenario, analysts anticipate Bitcoin could retreat to the $55,000 level. Such a decline, they argue, would fully clear market excesses and create a solid foundation for a sustained future uptrend.

cryptonews.ru3 год тому

Analysts: "Another Bitcoin Drop Could Lead to a Reboot"

cryptonews.ru3 год тому

Critical Moments in Bitcoin: Cost Zones That Demand Attention Have Been Identified!

Analytics firm Glassnode reported that reduced expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts, along with pricing in possible rate hikes, have suppressed risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market. The Fed's interest rate decisions are crucial for market direction. U.S. Treasury yields have surpassed returns from crypto carry trades, leading investors to favor cash and low-risk interest-bearing instruments over crypto assets. A strong U.S. dollar further weakens marginal demand for crypto. Bitcoin is currently trading below its most intensive cost basis level, with approximately $69,000 identified as the breakeven zone and significant resistance for short-term investors. For a stronger recovery, Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $69,000 threshold with increased trading volume. Renewed active demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs is also deemed critical. According to Glassnode, the current Bitcoin decline represents the shallowest bear market in terms of price drawdown depth to date. However, based on previous cycle durations, this downturn may not be over yet. Spot trading volumes have fallen to multi-year lows, and sell-side order books have thinned, though many buy orders are placed significantly below current prices. Glassnode's risk indicator, Vector, signaled "risk off," suggesting a capital preservation mindset. The current market structure is being driven more by macroeconomic factors like monetary policy, bond yields, and dollar strength than by crypto-sector developments. Losing Bitcoin's support range of $62,000-$68,000, coupled with renewed exchange inflows, could negate the recovery scenario. Conversely, more favorable monetary policy, increased trading volume, a Bitcoin recovery above $69,000, and a resumption of spot ETF buying could signal a market turnaround.

cryptonews.ruВчора 18:56

Critical Moments in Bitcoin: Cost Zones That Demand Attention Have Been Identified!

cryptonews.ruВчора 18:56

How Will the Fed's Decision Affect Bitcoin? What is the Probability of Its Rise? Answers from Two Analyst Experts!

The impact of the upcoming US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision on Bitcoin may be more limited than in past cycles, according to analysts. While markets anticipate rates will remain unchanged, there is a 31.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike. K33 Research notes Bitcoin is trading sideways with near multi-year low volatility, while the Nasdaq shows strong upward momentum. This has caused the correlation between Bitcoin and the tech-heavy index to drop to its lowest levels in years, suggesting their price movements are diverging. Consequently, K33's Vetle Lunde states the Fed's decision may be less decisive for Bitcoin's price than historically, as low volatility and decoupling from Nasdaq trends could dampen its reaction. Similarly, analyst Michaël van de Poppe predicts Bitcoin's recent recovery will continue post-FOMC meeting, arguing the market has already priced in excessive fear and Bitcoin's resilience supports a continued rally.

cryptonews.ruВчора 14:02

How Will the Fed's Decision Affect Bitcoin? What is the Probability of Its Rise? Answers from Two Analyst Experts!

cryptonews.ruВчора 14:02

Raoul Pal: Bitcoin's 87% Correlation with Global Liquidity Outweighs Financial Results and News

Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision and former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager, asserts that Bitcoin and major indices like the Nasdaq trade primarily based on global liquidity conditions, not fundamentals like earnings or news. He claims an 87% correlation between Bitcoin and global liquidity, with Nasdaq showing a 97% correlation. Global liquidity is measured by central bank balance sheets, the M2 money supply, and bank lending growth. Analysts at crypto market maker Keyrock developed a model supporting Pal's correlation claim, noting an eight-month lag between Treasury bill issuance and Bitcoin's price response. Pal's theory, which he detailed earlier this year, posits that central banks are forced to inject liquidity in a recurring cycle to manage global debt refinancing every four years. This forms the basis for his $450,000 Bitcoin price target, contingent on continued liquidity expansion. The high correlation suggests Bitcoin and tech stocks are trading as similar liquidity indicators rather than distinct asset classes. This view challenges narratives centered on Bitcoin's own supply dynamics, halving cycles, or adoption news. Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy has expressed a similar sentiment, downplaying the halving cycle's dominance in favor of capital flows from ETFs, corporate treasuries, and sovereign reserves. It's noted that Pal's post does not include the original datasets or methodology. Furthermore, the correlation's strength has fluctuated in 2026, and Keyrock's model indicates an eight-month lag, meaning current correlations reflect past, not real-time, liquidity conditions. The future path of central bank balance sheet expansion remains a key test for Pal's thesis.

cryptonews.ru2 дні тому 15:05

Raoul Pal: Bitcoin's 87% Correlation with Global Liquidity Outweighs Financial Results and News

cryptonews.ru2 дні тому 15:05

Bitcoin Drops 3% Following 10% Crash of South Korea's Kospi Index

Asian stock markets plummeted, with South Korea's Kospi index falling 10%, hitting its lowest level since mid-April. Bitcoin came under pressure following the U.S. market close, dropping from $65,000 to $63,200 and dragging down the broader crypto market, including Ethereum, XRP, and Solana. This ended a brief period of stability seen earlier in the week. The U.S. Senate delayed a key crypto regulatory bill (CLARITY Act) to prioritize a Russia sanctions bill, pushing the vote to next week. Analysts note Bitcoin is trading similarly to stocks under macroeconomic stress. Market volatility is expected to increase mid-week with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday and key U.S. economic data on Thursday. On-chain data shows signs of Bitcoin accumulation, with withdrawals from exchanges and miner holdings seen as bullish signals. The market remains in a neutral-bullish zone.

cryptonews.ru2 дні тому 09:23

Bitcoin Drops 3% Following 10% Crash of South Korea's Kospi Index

cryptonews.ru2 дні тому 09:23

Crypto Outperforming Stocks: How Digital Assets Are Withstanding Macroeconomic Pressure

Crypto Outperforms Stocks Amid Macro Pressure Trading firm QCP Capital's report analyzes the divergent performance of crypto and stock markets ahead of the July 29 FOMC meeting. While major US stock indexes showed mixed results, with tech weakness pressuring the Nasdaq, crypto assets like Bitcoin (up ~11.6% in July) and Ethereum (up ~24.6%) have outperformed despite a challenging macro backdrop, including rising Treasury yields and risk-off sentiment. Key focus points include the upcoming Fed decision and commentary from Chair Kevin Warsh, which could signal the regulator's stance on inflation and growth. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of ~$311 million on July 24, ending a seven-day inflow streak, highlighting shifting institutional sentiment. Option market data reveals increased demand for downside protection, indicating caution, though constructive long-term positioning remains. Implied volatility for Ethereum trades at a premium to Bitcoin, and perpetual funding rates stay positive. The week's key events are the FOMC decision, Treasury yield movements, ETF flow trends, and US regulatory developments like the CLARITY Act. The market balances crypto's resilience against growing option market caution, with the Fed's decision poised to tip the scales. Analysis compares the current Fed pause to historical rate-cutting cycles, questioning whether crypto's strength can persist if monetary policy tightening persists.

cryptonews.ru07/27 13:56

Crypto Outperforming Stocks: How Digital Assets Are Withstanding Macroeconomic Pressure

cryptonews.ru07/27 13:56

New Fire Research Institute: Inflation May Become a Stubborn Problem, Can Cryptocurrencies Achieve Independent Performance in the Short Term?

New Fire Research Institute argues that despite the recent U.S. June CPI decline to 3.5% year-on-year—primarily driven by energy—core goods inflation remains persistent, with core PCE likely showing slight growth. Federal Reserve Chairman Wash has emphasized the Fed's independence and a "zero tolerance" stance on inflation, suggesting a continued hawkish posture that will pressure risk assets, especially if energy prices rise again. Concurrently, the semiconductor memory sector faces structural pressures, as seen in significant sell-offs for Micron and SK Hynix. High leverage in markets like South Korea is triggering deleveraging, amplifying volatility. Investors are also questioning the sustainability of AI-related capital expenditures. In contrast, the crypto market showed relative stability last week, with BTC and ETH gaining slightly. Positive developments include a shift to net inflows for U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs, a narrowing Coinbase discount, and strong activity on the Robinhood Chain ecosystem. The potential advancement of the U.S. CLARITY Act provides a policy catalyst. Overall, the probability of an independent crypto bull run in the short term is low, given overarching macro pressures. However, fundamentals are improving with ETF inflows and robust on-chain activity, providing solid support. Technically, BTC and ETH show strong support at key moving averages. New Fire Research maintains that Bitcoin around $60,000 represents a high-value allocation zone, with limited downside risk near current levels. The true bull market catalyst awaits a confirmed market bottom combined with a macro policy shift and legislative progress.

marsbit07/21 09:03

New Fire Research Institute: Inflation May Become a Stubborn Problem, Can Cryptocurrencies Achieve Independent Performance in the Short Term?

marsbit07/21 09:03

Bitcoin – ‘Break above $80K unlikely’ – CoinShares identifies missing trigger

Bitcoin is recovering, trading at $63,921, but a CoinShares report indicates the rally is driven by macroeconomic shifts, not crypto-specific developments. Recent lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data raised expectations of Federal Reserve monetary easing, reversing an eight-week outflow trend and triggering inflows into Bitcoin investment products. However, the report suggests Bitcoin has likely found a short-term bottom but is unlikely to break above $80,000 without a clear shift in Fed policy. It is expected to trade in a range, potentially between $60,000 and $120,000, until there are definitive signs of monetary easing. Investor sentiment remains cautious, with interest growing in blockchain stocks and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index indicating "extreme fear."

ambcrypto07/18 14:02

Bitcoin – ‘Break above $80K unlikely’ – CoinShares identifies missing trigger

ambcrypto07/18 14:02

Bitcoin at $62K: Why CoinShares warns ‘this still looks like early stage of bottoming’

Bitcoin has stabilized near $62,000 after a decline, but CoinShares warns this appears to be the early stage of a bottoming process rather than a clear start of a new upward trend. The recent rebound was triggered by a weaker-than-expected U.S. June jobs report, which lowered expectations for imminent Fed rate hikes and made riskier assets like crypto more attractive. However, the report cautions this is a transient market response, noting the Fed's recent stance remains hawkish with higher long-term rate projections. Major challenges persist, including past large-scale sell-offs by whale wallets, geopolitical uncertainty, and capital shifting from Bitcoin ETPs into AI-focused ETFs. While trading interest is rising, the current combination of low price and high market leverage increases the risk of a sharp, liquidation-driven price move in either direction.

ambcrypto07/04 17:02

Bitcoin at $62K: Why CoinShares warns ‘this still looks like early stage of bottoming’

ambcrypto07/04 17:02

Bitcoin Bull Turn Hinges On US Debt Wall, Real Vision Says

Real Vision crypto analyst Jamie Coutts says Bitcoin's long-term technical setup is approaching attractive, accumulation-zone levels, suggesting a potential cycle bottom in Q2/Q3. However, he cautions that a major macroeconomic obstacle could delay a sustained bullish reversal: a looming US Treasury refinancing wall. In 2027, $3.67 trillion of government debt matures and must be refinanced at significantly higher interest rates. Coutts argues current market liquidity is insufficient to absorb this issuance smoothly, especially as capital continues rotating out of crypto and into AI-related equities and commodities since late 2025. This liquidity constraint, combined with a potential contraction of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, poses a risk to all risk assets, including Bitcoin. While Bitcoin may be the first to detect a future shift toward increased Fed liquidity, Coutts believes such a shift may only come after stress emerges in the Treasury market. Therefore, despite a positive technical structure, Bitcoin's next durable bull phase may hinge on navigating this significant macro refinancing challenge.

bitcoinist06/09 02:01

Bitcoin Bull Turn Hinges On US Debt Wall, Real Vision Says

bitcoinist06/09 02:01

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