# Пов'язані статті щодо Inflation

Центр новин HTX надає останні статті та поглиблений аналіз на тему "Inflation", що охоплює ринкові тренди, оновлення проєктів, технологічні розробки та регуляторну політику в криптоіндустрії.

Yen Hits 40-Year Low, What Will Japan Use to Price in Shorts?

The Japanese yen is hovering near a 40-year low against the U.S. dollar, with the USD/JPY pair approaching 164 in July. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki has issued stern warnings of potential "bold" action to counter disorderly market movements, placing the 163-165 range in focus as a key policy test zone for authorities. The yen's weakness extends beyond dollar strength, as evidenced by its low trade-weighted index, which pressures import costs and inflation—particularly with elevated oil prices. This dynamic increases the likelihood of further Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes. The Ministry of Finance is first aiming to raise the cost for yen short-sellers through verbal intervention and the threat of action, rather than immediately altering fundamentals. While direct FX intervention remains a high-barrier option, slower-moving factors like potential BoJ rate hikes and asset rebalancing by Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) could provide more sustained support for the yen. The core risk for carry trades—which involve borrowing low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding assets—is not an imminent unwind but a sudden spike in yen volatility. As policymakers deploy a mix of warnings, rate hike expectations, and potential fund flows, the cost and risk of shorting the yen are increasing. The 163-165 zone is becoming an area where policy responses could trigger a broader repricing, making the yen a more critical variable for global risk asset leverage.

marsbit23 год тому

Yen Hits 40-Year Low, What Will Japan Use to Price in Shorts?

marsbit23 год тому

Unseen Since 2007, the US Treasury Market Is Sounding Alarms

US Treasury Market Sounds Alarm, Longest Streak Since 2007. The US Treasury market is facing its most severe stress test in nearly two decades. Yields have surged to multi-year highs, driven by a triple threat of escalating Middle East tensions, oil prices breaching $100 per barrel, and rekindled inflation fears. The 30-year yield, a key benchmark, has sustained a record-breaking streak above 5%, its longest since 2007, forcing a rapid reassessment of the Federal Reserve's policy path. The core of the turmoil is the persistent elevation of long-term yields. The 30-year Treasury yield has now remained above 5% for its longest consecutive period in 17 years, recently climbing to 5.19%. Analysts note this persistence, unlike previous selloffs, lacks a single catalyst and sees limited immediate buying interest. They attribute the stickiness to investors demanding higher compensation for enduring inflation risks, massive fiscal deficits, and expectations of increased long-duration bond supply. The immediate trigger was Brent crude oil surpassing $100, reigniting inflation concerns and sharply increasing market bets on future Fed rate hikes. Beyond oil, structural pressures are mounting. A soaring national debt, now nearing $40 trillion, faces diminished demand from traditional foreign buyers. Concurrently, massive AI-related bond issuance from tech giants like Microsoft and Amazon offers investors alternatives to long-dated Treasuries, further straining demand. The ripple effects are spreading. Rising yields have pushed the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to a near one-year high of 6.58%, pressuring the housing market. Equities are also feeling the strain, with major indices declining as higher borrowing costs threaten corporate profits and compress valuations for growth stocks, particularly in the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Market participants warn that if long-end yields continue climbing uncontrollably, it could trigger broader financial instability, with some noting the potential return of "bond vigilantes" concerned over fiscal sustainability.

marsbit23 год тому

Unseen Since 2007, the US Treasury Market Is Sounding Alarms

marsbit23 год тому

A 30% Chance of a Fed Rate Hike Next Week?

Amid rising oil prices and a lack of clear guidance from the Federal Reserve, markets are repricing policy risk. While most economists expect the Fed to hold rates steady next week, interest rate markets now imply roughly a 30% probability of a hike, pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher across the curve. The 2-year yield hit a new high since early 2025, the 10-year yield reached its highest level this year, and the 30-year yield neared its highest since 2007. However, a Citigroup report from July 23 argues this market pricing does not reflect a widespread bet on an imminent hike. Instead, it represents a higher risk premium demanded by investors to hedge against a potential policy surprise. The report explains that with forward guidance becoming more ambiguous and oil prices boosting inflation risks, uncertainty has increased. Historically, the risk premium around Fed meetings was negligible, but it has now grown as the Fed relies more on data-dependent communication. The lack of clear guidance means that even if the Fed stands pat, yields may not fall significantly, as this uncertainty premium could persist until a clearer communication framework is reestablished.

链捕手Вчора 06:24

A 30% Chance of a Fed Rate Hike Next Week?

链捕手Вчора 06:24

Podcast Notes | Conversation with GSR Asset Management Head: To Determine if This Crypto Rally is Real, Just Watch the Lending Rates on Aave

Podcast Summary: Dialogue with GSR's Head of Asset Management: To Determine if This Crypto Rally is Real, Just Check Lending Rates on Aave Andy Baehr, Managing Director of Asset Management at GSR, discusses the current crypto market, characterizing it as stuck in a state of "ambivalence" with short-lived, unsustainable rallies. He outlines a simple framework: the market moves between "ambivalence" and "conviction" (sustained upward momentum). Currently, every rally resembles a single-stage rocket booster that quickly fizzles out. Baehr identifies three key signals to watch: 1) DeFi lending rates, 2) the potential passage of the CLARITY Act, and 3) the market forming a consensus on the "Fed hawkish peak." He emphasizes that the most immediate indicator for the sustainability of the recent CPI-triggered rally is the USDC borrowing rate on Aave, currently around 3.75%—close to U.S. Treasury yields. The absence of a credit spread indicates low leverage demand and a lack of market energy. He explains that a healthy, sustained rally requires layered buying pressure. Last year's rally progressed from an ETH short squeeze to crypto-native trader influx and finally to ETF inflows. Currently, this structure is missing. Other potential structural buyers like Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies are absent, and ETF flows have proven transient. Baehr notes that while small-cap crypto tokens outperformed large caps in Q2—a potential sign of capitation in major assets—capital is also flowing to more exciting opportunities like AI stocks and tech IPOs, leaving crypto sidelined. Regarding DeFi, he highlights that platforms like Aave provide a clear, real-time signal of leverage demand through their supply/demand-driven interest rates. A significant, sustained rate increase would signal genuine market conviction. He also observes the quiet emergence of fixed-income-like products and vaults in DeFi. On regulation, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing before the August 7th deadline has dropped linearly from 75% to below 40% on Polymarket. Baehr suggests its passage would be treated as a bullish surprise, a potent driver for price movement. However, political hurdles, including ethical clause debates and disclosures about the First Family's crypto profits, remain significant obstacles. Ultimately, the market awaits clarity on the Fed's terminal rate under Chair Warsh. Until the "Fed Solstice"—the point where the market collectively understands the peak of hawkish policy—sustained conviction will be difficult to achieve.

marsbit07/22 05:17

Podcast Notes | Conversation with GSR Asset Management Head: To Determine if This Crypto Rally is Real, Just Watch the Lending Rates on Aave

marsbit07/22 05:17

New Fire Research Institute: Inflation May Become a Stubborn Problem, Can Cryptocurrencies Achieve Independent Performance in the Short Term?

New Fire Research Institute argues that despite the recent U.S. June CPI decline to 3.5% year-on-year—primarily driven by energy—core goods inflation remains persistent, with core PCE likely showing slight growth. Federal Reserve Chairman Wash has emphasized the Fed's independence and a "zero tolerance" stance on inflation, suggesting a continued hawkish posture that will pressure risk assets, especially if energy prices rise again. Concurrently, the semiconductor memory sector faces structural pressures, as seen in significant sell-offs for Micron and SK Hynix. High leverage in markets like South Korea is triggering deleveraging, amplifying volatility. Investors are also questioning the sustainability of AI-related capital expenditures. In contrast, the crypto market showed relative stability last week, with BTC and ETH gaining slightly. Positive developments include a shift to net inflows for U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs, a narrowing Coinbase discount, and strong activity on the Robinhood Chain ecosystem. The potential advancement of the U.S. CLARITY Act provides a policy catalyst. Overall, the probability of an independent crypto bull run in the short term is low, given overarching macro pressures. However, fundamentals are improving with ETF inflows and robust on-chain activity, providing solid support. Technically, BTC and ETH show strong support at key moving averages. New Fire Research maintains that Bitcoin around $60,000 represents a high-value allocation zone, with limited downside risk near current levels. The true bull market catalyst awaits a confirmed market bottom combined with a macro policy shift and legislative progress.

marsbit07/21 09:03

New Fire Research Institute: Inflation May Become a Stubborn Problem, Can Cryptocurrencies Achieve Independent Performance in the Short Term?

marsbit07/21 09:03

Bitcoin: Rising oil prices keep BTC in check – Long-term holders in limbo

Bitcoin faces mixed signals as it tests $64,500. While traditional investors added modest inflows, long-term holders (those holding coins for 155+ days) remain a focal point of caution. On-chain data shows this group is still selling at a loss, with their Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) at 0.94, indicating 6% losses—a significant improvement from earlier 27% losses but not yet a sign of full conviction. Market activity is currently dominated by short-term holders, as indicated by the Exchange Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric, suggesting a more relaxed selling phase. Exchange reserves have also declined slightly. However, macroeconomic risks pose a headwind. Rising oil prices, driven by Middle East tensions, threaten to reignite inflation concerns. This could dampen the risk-on sentiment crucial for Bitcoin and potentially lead US investors to reduce exposure via spot Bitcoin ETFs. The market's recovery hinges on balancing these improving on-chain dynamics against persistent external economic pressures.

ambcrypto07/21 04:02

Bitcoin: Rising oil prices keep BTC in check – Long-term holders in limbo

ambcrypto07/21 04:02

Opinion: The Hedging Relationship Between U.S. Treasuries and Stocks Has Broken Down, and BTC, as a Risk Asset, Is Under Dual Pressure

For the past 20 years, U.S. investors relied on a free insurance policy: when stocks fell, bonds rose, cushioning portfolio losses. This reliable inverse correlation underpinned entire financial strategies. However, this mechanism broke down around 2020 and has not recovered. Currently, the two-month rolling correlation between the S&P 500 and 10-year Treasury yields is at -0.69, its lowest level since 1996, indicating stocks and bonds are moving in sync to an unprecedented degree, eliminating the traditional portfolio shock absorber. The失效 of this hedge is not simply due to lost confidence in U.S. debt. The key driver is the shift from growth-dominated to inflation-dominated market narratives. When growth fears prevail, stocks and bonds move inversely. Since 2022, persistent inflation volatility has been the dominant factor, causing both asset classes to suffer simultaneously from higher inflation expectations. Investors now seek safety without duration risk, favoring cash, dollars, and short-term Treasuries while selling long-duration bonds. Record U.S. deficits, rising net interest payments, and waning foreign demand (e.g., from Japan) are pressuring long-term yields, with the 30-year yield surpassing 5%. This environment places Bitcoin, as a risk asset on the far end of the risk curve, under dual pressure. Higher risk-free rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, while falling equities reduce overall risk appetite. Bitcoin's performance has become highly sensitive to macro conditions such as real yields, dollar strength, and financial conditions. While its long-term thesis as a fixed-supply asset outside the sovereign credit system is strengthened by these fiscal trends, the same conditions hurt it in the short term. The return of bonds as a effective hedge requires inflation volatility to subside, growth risks to retake dominance, and the Fed to have room to ease policy. Until then, Bitcoin trades in a market where the deepest asset class no longer absorbs shocks, removing the safety floor for all risk assets, especially those that pay nothing to wait.

marsbit07/20 05:12

Opinion: The Hedging Relationship Between U.S. Treasuries and Stocks Has Broken Down, and BTC, as a Risk Asset, Is Under Dual Pressure

marsbit07/20 05:12

Bitcoin – ‘Break above $80K unlikely’ – CoinShares identifies missing trigger

Bitcoin is recovering, trading at $63,921, but a CoinShares report indicates the rally is driven by macroeconomic shifts, not crypto-specific developments. Recent lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data raised expectations of Federal Reserve monetary easing, reversing an eight-week outflow trend and triggering inflows into Bitcoin investment products. However, the report suggests Bitcoin has likely found a short-term bottom but is unlikely to break above $80,000 without a clear shift in Fed policy. It is expected to trade in a range, potentially between $60,000 and $120,000, until there are definitive signs of monetary easing. Investor sentiment remains cautious, with interest growing in blockchain stocks and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index indicating "extreme fear."

ambcrypto07/18 14:02

Bitcoin – ‘Break above $80K unlikely’ – CoinShares identifies missing trigger

ambcrypto07/18 14:02

Semiconductor Sell-Off Hits Global Stock Markets Hard, US Stocks Mixed at Opening, Memory Stocks Broadly Down, TSMC Falls 3%, Spot Gold Drops 2%

Semiconductor stocks face a significant sell-off, impacting global markets and raising doubts about the sustainability of the AI-driven rally. The Dow Jones rose 0.2%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped over 2%, with memory chip stocks like Sandisk (down ~5%), TSMC (down ~3%), and SK Hynix (down ~7%) under pressure. Asian markets also fell sharply: Japan's Nikkei 225 lost 2.8% and South Korea's KOSPI plunged 6.4%. A key trigger was volatility from leveraged ETFs in South Korea tied to Samsung and SK Hynix, prompting regulatory scrutiny. Analysts warn that such speculative leverage often leads to negative outcomes. Geopolitical tensions added pressure as U.S. airstrikes in Iran heightened Middle East risks, briefly lifting Brent crude above $85.9. However, concerns over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist. Meanwhile, softer-than-expected U.S. June PPI data eased Treasury yields and limited Fed tightening expectations. Spot gold fell 2% to $3,977.25/oz. Overall, the chip stock downturn, combined with cautious sentiment from geopolitical risks and mixed macroeconomic signals, is weighing on investor confidence.

链捕手07/16 15:00

Semiconductor Sell-Off Hits Global Stock Markets Hard, US Stocks Mixed at Opening, Memory Stocks Broadly Down, TSMC Falls 3%, Spot Gold Drops 2%

链捕手07/16 15:00

Warsh Concludes Capitol Hill Visit! A Breakdown: What Did He Say Over These Two Days?

Walsh Concludes Capitol Hill Testimony: Key Takeaways on Independence, Inflation, and AI In his first congressional hearings as Fed Chair, Kevin Walsh faced intense scrutiny over the central bank's independence, internal reforms, and policy transparency. Over two days before House and Senate committees, lawmakers, particularly Democrats, questioned his ties to the Trump administration and recent initiatives like an AI task force led by venture capitalist Marc Andreessen. Walsh staunchly defended the Fed's independence, stating, "Trump selected an independent person to do an independent job," and vowed to ignore political pressure on interest rates. He emphasized a "zero tolerance" approach to inflation, downplaying the significance of a single favorable CPI report and signaling that rate hikes remain an option to restore price stability. He addressed criticism of the Andreessen-led AI working group by clarifying it only has an advisory role. On AI's economic impact, Walsh suggested the investment boom might not be inherently inflationary and could boost productivity and wages over time. Regarding policy, Walsh reiterated his preference to move away from detailed forward guidance, promising all decisions would be released publicly and simultaneously. He framed his internal reform efforts, including five new working groups starting "from a blank slate," as necessary because past Fed policy contributed to current inflation. The hearings ended with a mix of skepticism and a "wait-and-see" attitude from Washington. While Walsh navigated the initial challenge through hawkish rhetoric and debate skills, observers noted his credibility will ultimately depend on concrete actions to fight inflation and safeguard the Fed's autonomy.

marsbit07/16 02:11

Warsh Concludes Capitol Hill Visit! A Breakdown: What Did He Say Over These Two Days?

marsbit07/16 02:11

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