Tiger Research: U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve - Should the Market Be Happy or Disappointed?
Tiger Research analyzes the evolution of U.S. legislative efforts regarding a strategic Bitcoin reserve, concluding the market impact is limited in the short term but potentially positive long-term.
The core event was a March 2025 executive order by former President Trump, which designated confiscated Bitcoin as a strategic reserve and promised not to sell existing holdings (approx. 190k BTC). As it contained no mandate to purchase new Bitcoin, the market reacted negatively, with prices dropping 5.7%.
Legislative history shows a significant retreat from initial ambitions. The 2024 "BITCOIN Act" proposed mandatory purchases of 1 million BTC over five years. Reintroduced in 2025, it stalled due to high fiscal costs, concerns over dollar hegemony, and opposition from the Treasury Secretary. The current frontrunner, the 2026 "American Retirement and Monetary Advancement (ARMA) Act," is a compromise. It lacks any purchase requirement, instead focusing on consolidating existing government-held Bitcoin and legally prohibiting its sale for at least 20 years.
While ARMA has higher passage odds due to bipartisan support and no purchase mandate, its immediate market effect is neutral. It eliminates potential government selling pressure but creates no new demand. The long-term significance is that formally establishing Bitcoin as a national reserve asset in law could later reignite debates on mandatory purchases. Therefore, the path to a government buyer is longer than initially priced by the market, but the directional narrative remains intact.
marsbit06/16 02:08
