Q2营收暴涨92%，依旧跌破IPO价，SpaceX该买还是等？

Odaily星球日报Опубліковано о 2026-08-05Востаннє оновлено о 2026-08-05

Анотація

SpaceX's Q2 2026 earnings report surpassed expectations, with revenue surging 92% year-over-year to $7.814 billion. Starlink remained the largest contributor, while the AI segment saw explosive growth of 247%. However, the company still posted a net loss of $541 million. Despite the strong report, the stock price reversed gains after hours, falling below its IPO price. The market's negative reaction is attributed to two main factors. First, there is growing investor concern over the massive capital expenditures (CapEx) required for AI infrastructure. SpaceX's total Q2 CapEx was $18.369 billion, with $15.828 billion (over 86%) dedicated to AI, far exceeding the segment's revenue. While management argues the investment has a short payback period and projects immense future revenue, this spending pattern mirrors a broader market anxiety about AI profitability timelines. Second, a significant overhang comes from the imminent lock-up expiration on August 6th, which will release approximately 910 million shares into the market—far exceeding the current public float of 640 million shares. This potential selling pressure has created technical support levels near $100, with analysts warning of possible further downside if the market hasn't fully priced in this risk. The article concludes that while SpaceX's core businesses (rockets and Starlink) justify its current valuation, the added AI potential makes it a discounted play long-term. However, given the near-term pressures from Ca...

原创 |Odaily 星球日报(@OdailyChina)

作者|Golem(@web3_golem)

8 月 4 日,SpaceX 发布了 2026 年 Q2 财报,结果整体超预期。

财报显示,SpaceX 2026 年 Q2 营收 78.14 亿美元,同比增长 92%,高于约 68 亿美元的市场预期。其中以 Starlink 为主的连接业务仍占营收大头,收入达 42.91 亿美元,同比增长 66%,环比增长 32%;AI 业务营收本季度高速增长,收入达 25.61 亿美元,同比猛增 247%,环比更是增长 213%;太空业务也录得同比 29%的增长,收入达 9.62 亿美元。

SpaceX 本季度仍净亏损 5.41 亿美元,但也在市场预期之内,并且相比去年同期 10.08 亿美元的亏损已大幅收窄,换算成每股亏损约 0.09 美元,好于市场预期的每股亏损 0.23~0.24 美元。虽然 AI 和太空业务仍未实现盈利,分别亏损 12.57 亿和 5.42 亿美元,吞噬了 Starlink 业务 16.56 亿美元的利润,但相比市场预期和上一季度亏损也都有收窄。

本季度财报作为 SpaceX 上市后交出的首份答卷,从营收和预期看,SpaceX 已经值得表扬。

戏剧化的是,财报后 SpaceX 股价却经历了过山车行情。8 月 4 日,美股开盘后 SpaceX 一路上涨,最终已 125.33 美元收盘,涨幅达 9.43%;然而,盘后 SpaceX 股价转跌,截止目前跌幅仍达 7.5%,股价在 116 美元附近,基本收回了盘中所有涨幅。

不怪市场对 SpaceX 过于严厉,造成 SpaceX 股价受挫主要有两个原因。一是宏观层面,当下市场对 AI 企业的关注点已经从营收增速转向 AI 巨额资本支出何时兑现为实际回报的担忧;二是微观层面,SpaceX 8 月 6 日首批约 9.1 亿股限售股解禁将给市场带来的抛售压力。

马斯克无法平复市场对 AI 巨额资本支出的担忧

从财报来看,AI 已经成长为 SpaceX 的第二大收入来源,仅此于以 Starlink 为主的连接业务。对于一直将 AI 业务作为其估值核心的 SpaceX 来说,这是一件大好事,然而急速增长背后藏着的是巨额资本开支。

SpaceX 2026 年 Q2 总资本开支约为 183.69 亿美元,其中 AI 业务资本支出独占 158.28 亿美元,占比超 86%。这笔 AI 资本开支不仅较上一季度增长了 104%,而且还是本季度 AI 业务收入的 6 倍、总营收(78.14 亿美元)的 2 倍。

SpaceX AI 业务运营和财务数据

AI 巨额资本支出花哪了?

据财报电话会上 SpaceX CFO 布雷特·约翰森‌(Bret Johnsen)透露,超 158 亿美元的 AI 支出主要用于支持 AI 计算基础设施建设。截止第二季度末,SpaceX 的总算力供电负荷已扩展至 1.4GW,高于第一季度的 1 GW 和去年同期的 0.4 GW,SpaceX 预计今年年底将达到 2GW。并且马斯克还补充称,到 2027 年底,SpaceX 的实际计算能力将接近 10 GW 而不是此前预计的 5 GW。

同时,约翰森‌表示 AI 资本支出在未来两个季度并不会有太大缩减,但他也同时强调,目前的经济效益可以使 SpaceX 用于 AI 计算的资本投资在不到一年的时间内收回成本。为了进一步缓解市场投资者对 SpaceX AI 资本支出回报周期的担忧,在财报电话会上约翰森‌还以前不久刚签约的 67 亿美元的云服务合同举例,称在今年年底 SpaceX 将实现 1000 亿美元的年度经常性收入(ARR)。

艺高人胆大的马斯克接着添油加醋的表示,“这个目标并非遥不可及,即使我们什么都不做,也能达到这个目标,我认为实际数字可能会更高。”马斯克还透露 SpaceX 内部已经将营收达到 1 万亿美元的预测(注意是营收,不是 ARR)从 2031 年提前至 2030 年。

以防读者对 1 万亿美元营收没有概念,截止目前全球还没有达到 1 万亿美元年营收的企业,即使是“GPU 教父”黄仁勋在 2026 年 3 月的 GTC 大会上也只是表示在 2027 年英伟达有信心实现 1 万亿美元的累计营收,对比下来,马斯克的“牛”吹的更大。

在 SpaceX 的 AI 业务 25.61 亿美元收入构成中,“AI 解决方案和基础设施”收入达 21.94 亿美元,而广告收入仅为 3.67 亿美元。毫无疑问,这样的收入增长是通过巨额 AI 资本支出砸出来的,但 AI 收入的爆发并未覆盖 SpaceX AI 基础设施扩张的资本速度,也未能改变 AI 业务仍要靠 Starlink 业务供血的格局。

市场对 AI 巨额资本支出的整体担忧拖累了 SpaceX

对于 SpaceX 本身来说,这其实不是什么大问题。作为一个长周期高成长的科技企业,前期高资本投入是必须的,况且刚完成上市的 SpaceX 手握 1000 亿美元的现金等价物及 475 亿美元的未完成订单,雄厚的财力使其“挥霍得起”。

但 SpaceX 错就错在恰好赶上了一个市场不佳情绪期。宏观层面上,几乎所有 AI 科技企业都在扩张 AI 基础设施投入,但市场对这笔巨额支出何时兑现为实际回报的耐心正在快速消耗,即使是“硅谷钢铁侠”马斯克也无法平复投资者的焦虑。

上周美股进入 Q2 财报季,谷歌、英特尔、Meta 等营收均大涨但股价却暴跌,它们的共同点是 AI 资本支出均上涨;而微软下调全年资本开支后,股价创下 18 年来最佳单日表现。(相关阅读:当市场开始质疑 AI 资本开支:五家科技巨头 Q2 财报全解析)

覆巢之下,安有完卵。在市场整体对 AI 资本开支产生质疑的情况下,AI 资本支出占比达 86%、实际 AI 业务仍在亏损的 SpaceX 又如何走出独立行情呢?

AI 资本支出黑洞是 SpaceX 的客观事实,关键在于投资者从何种角度看待,有人为此担忧,也有人因此看好。

摩根士丹利将 SpaceX 目标价维持在 300 美元,主要就是对其 AI 业务未来价值的押注,300 美元的目标价构成为:太空业务 8 美元,Starlink 业务 128 美元,X 与 Grok 业务 12 美元,企业 AI 业务 152 美元。若是剔除 AI 价值,SpaceX 的火箭发射和 Starlink 业务本身已足以支撑当前股价,因此加上 AI 业务,SpaceX 目前则完全是折价交易。

8 月 6 日的股票解禁

宏观层面上投资者对 SpaceX AI 资本支出的看法还各有千秋,而微观层面上对于 8 月 6 日 SpaceX 的首次早期股票解禁,投资者基本上是一致看空的态度,这也是财报后,SpaceX 股价承压的原因之一。

8 月 6 日(本周四)SpaceX 约 9.1 亿股内部股票将解除禁售流入市场,规模远超目前仅 6.4 亿股的公众流通盘。此次解禁后,市场上的股票供应量将大幅增长,市场普遍认为目前的买盘不足以承接如此巨大的抛售。

据 OptionCharts 数据,当前 SPCX 的看跌/看涨期权比率(Put-Call Ratio )为 0.97,从情绪角度看,投资者情绪仍处于中性。但若观察 8 月 7 日到期的合约具体分布,就会发现 SPCX 的心理和技术支撑位已经下降至 100 美元,在该价位积累了 24947 份 Put,这也是当前最大规模的最平仓合约。

一旦失守,股价向下突破可能会引发负 Gamma 效应,SPCX 跌破 90 美元也极有可能发生。

目前的多空博弈点仍集中在 110-115 美元行权价附近,考虑两种情况,如果市场已经提前交易了股票解禁带来的利空,那么 SPCX 也极有可能在 8 月 6 日当天短时下挫后仍回升,将维持在该价位区间;如果市场仍未充分交易股票解禁带来的利空,那么 SPCX 就极有可能如前文所述持续向下突破。

继财报超预期的利好在昨日美股盘中被迅速消化后,短期内难以预计 SpaceX 能够提振股价的利好因素。这并不代表长期来看 SpaceX 股价仍然昂贵,因为相比 135 美元的 IPO 发行价,SPCX 跌幅已达 17%,但如果你想买,最好至少也要等到第一波股票解禁结束后。

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Пов'язані питання

QWhat were the main highlights of SpaceX's Q2 2026 earnings report?

ASpaceX's Q2 2026 revenue was $7.814 billion, a 92% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations. The Starlink-led connectivity business remained the largest revenue segment at $4.291 billion. The AI business saw explosive growth to $2.561 billion, a 247% YoY increase, though it remained unprofitable. The company's net loss narrowed significantly to $541 million. However, total capital expenditures were $18.369 billion, with AI spending accounting for $15.828 billion of that, raising market concerns about the return on this massive investment.

QWhy did SpaceX's stock price fall after its positive earnings report?

AThe stock price fell primarily due to two reasons. First, macro concerns: the market is shifting its focus from AI revenue growth to worries about when massive AI capital expenditures will translate into tangible returns, a sentiment affecting the entire tech sector. Second, a micro event: a significant lock-up expiration of approximately 910 million shares was scheduled for August 6, which threatened to increase the available shares for sale and put downward pressure on the stock price as the market anticipated potential selling from early investors.

QHow significant was the AI business to SpaceX's Q2 2026 financials?

AThe AI business became SpaceX's second-largest revenue source in Q2 2026, generating $2.561 billion, a 247% year-over-year increase. However, it was also the primary driver of the company's massive capital expenditures, consuming $15.828 billion, which was over 86% of the total $18.369 billion in capex. This spending was 6 times the AI business's own revenue and 2 times SpaceX's total revenue for the quarter. Despite its rapid growth, the AI segment remained unprofitable, reporting a loss of $1.257 billion.

QWhat is the market's key concern regarding SpaceX's AI capital expenditure, and how did management address it?

AThe market's key concern is the massive scale of AI capital expenditure ($15.828 billion in Q2) and the uncertainty over when this investment will generate a profitable return. To address this, CFO Bret Johnsen stated that the current economics allow SpaceX to recoup its AI computing capital investment in less than a year. He cited a recent $6.7 billion cloud services contract as an example, projecting the company would reach a $100 billion Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) run rate by year-end. Elon Musk further raised long-term projections, bringing forward the forecast for the company to achieve $1 trillion in annual revenue from 2031 to 2030.

QWhat was the anticipated impact of the August 6th stock lock-up expiration on SpaceX's share price?

AThe expiration of lock-up restrictions on approximately 910 million shares on August 6th was anticipated to create significant selling pressure. This volume far exceeded the public float of about 640 million shares at the time, potentially overwhelming market buy orders. Options market data indicated a key technical and psychological support level at $100. Analysts suggested that if the market had not already priced in this event, the stock (ticker SPCX) could break below the $110-$115 range and potentially fall towards or even below $90, triggering a negative Gamma effect. The advice was for investors to wait until after this initial wave of potential selling passed.

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