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From ETH to SOL: Why Will L1s Ultimately Lose to Bitcoin?

The article "From ETH to SOL: Why L1s Will Ultimately Lose to Bitcoin?" argues that Bitcoin (BTC) is increasingly dominating the "cryptomoney" narrative, leaving little room for other Layer-1 (L1) blockchains to compete for monetary premium. The core of the argument is that approximately 81% of the total crypto market cap is invested in assets viewed as money or potential money, with BTC alone accounting for 55%. While L1s like ETH, XRP, BNB, and SOL represent a significant portion of the remaining value, their valuations are not primarily driven by revenue or real economic activity. Data shows that L1 revenues have been declining annually, yet their price-to-earnings ratios have soared, suggesting their market caps are almost entirely propped up by speculation on future monetary premium, not fundamentals. The performance of L1s against BTC further supports this. Since December 2022, eight of the top ten L1s have underperformed BTC, with six lagging by over 40%. Solana (SOL) was a notable exception, outperforming BTC by 87%. However, this gain is put into perspective by its ecosystem's explosive growth: a ~3,000% increase in DeFi TVL, fees, and DEX volume. This indicates that an L1 must achieve astronomical, orders-of-magnitude growth to merely eke out a modest performance lead over BTC. The conclusion is that the trend of BTC consolidating monetary premium at the expense of L1s is irreversible. The narrative that an L1 could become "money" is losing credibility as investors now have a decade of data showing that L1s consistently underperform BTC unless their ecosystems experience extreme, unsustainable growth. Without genuine economic growth, L1s' monetary premium will continue to erode.

coinvoice12/08 04:07