Authored by: Forbes
Compiled by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
In 2026, Bitcoin has faced considerable challenges, failing to hold the historical highs above $126,000 it briefly broke last year. Despite repeated positive signals from U.S. President Trump, Bitcoin's price has still cumulatively fallen over 50% since last October. However, several analysts point out that a potential policy shift by the Federal Reserve might be brewing a turnaround.
Just as BlackRock's CEO issued his latest 12-month Bitcoin price prediction, Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas offered an extremely valuable comparison: The army of Bitcoin ETFs is very likely to cause Bitcoin's price trajectory to "mirror" the "victory and pain" journey of gold over the past 20+ years.
Balchunas posted on platform X, stating: "The 22-year history of gold ETFs is perhaps the closest roadmap available for Bitcoin ETF investors." Since the launch of gold ETFs in 2004, gold prices have soared, with its total market capitalization now approaching $28 trillion. This figure alone is enough to spark market speculation—if Bitcoin can replicate part of gold's success path, its potential upside would be extremely significant.
He further analyzed: "Both gold and Bitcoin are packaged products of non-yielding store-of-value assets. They generate no cash flow; the core driver of their prices relies entirely on investor sentiment, not traditional stocks' profitability, bonds' coupon payments, or government credit backing."
Over the past 20+ years, gold ETFs have experienced dramatic ups and downs: they briefly became the world's largest ETF in 2011, then entered an eight-year slump, struggling to recover. Balchunas believes Bitcoin ETFs are following a similar script—"spectacular gains, painful drawdowns, and a recovery phase requiring immense patience." Notably, each cycle for gold ETFs has lifted its historical highs, which is particularly encouraging for Bitcoin's long-term holders.
Recalling the development of Bitcoin ETFs: In early 2024, after over a decade of persistent advocacy from the crypto community, spot Bitcoin ETFs were finally approved and launched in the market. Wall Street institutions flocked in, with several leading funds rapidly becoming among the fastest-growing ETFs in history. This not only marked Bitcoin's transition from a fringe asset to the mainstream financial system but also laid the groundwork for subsequent price volatility.
However, volatility has always been a companion. Earlier this month, analysts from the Bitfinex exchange warned: "Shock"-level large-scale ETF outflows could directly interrupt the current rebound momentum. Although Bitcoin has recovered nearly 10% from lows below $57,000 in early July, the market remains highly vigilant.
As the absolute leader in the Bitcoin ETF space, BlackRock's IBIT fund has sold nearly 100,000 Bitcoins in recent months to meet redemption pressures, and it still holds over 733,000 Bitcoins, with assets under management close to $50 billion. This also reflects the nature of institutional fund flows—both inflows and outflows can trigger significant market reactions.
Despite Bitcoin's substantial price correction this year, many long-term bulls remain confident. They generally believe Bitcoin has the potential for long-term prosperity comparable to gold. Balchunas himself emphasized the "spiritual parallel" between the two: "Gold exploded in popularity quickly, surpassing the world's largest ETF SPY in assets on a single day in 2011, then fell out of favor for years. IBIT similarly hit a $100 billion AUM peak in a single day—that was precisely the top in October 2025. Both have nearly fixed supplies, which can lead to price explosions when demand surges. But the problem is, demand tends to be fickle, coming in waves rather than a steady stream."
From the perspective of seasoned observers in the crypto industry, this comparison is highly relevant. Gold has achieved long-term value anchoring through scarcity, safe-haven attributes, and global recognition; Bitcoin, with its halving mechanism, decentralized network, and increasing institutional adoption, exhibits traits similar to "digital gold." The emergence of ETFs has further lowered the barrier to holding, allowing traditional investors to gain exposure without directly owning Bitcoin, undoubtedly amplifying demand elasticity.
Currently, the market remains optimistic about the resilience of ETF demand. Simon-Peter Massabni, Head of Business Development at XS.com, noted: "Institutional demand remains one of Bitcoin's most solid pillars. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to record steady inflows, while an increasing number of corporations are incorporating digital assets into their portfolio diversification strategies. This institutional interest effectively cushions selling pressure during recent market pullbacks."
Looking ahead, Bitcoin's trajectory will be deeply influenced by the macro environment, regulatory developments, and institutional behavior. Gold's market cap has reached nearly $28 trillion. If Bitcoin can gradually occupy a similar "store of value" status, even if only achieving a fraction of gold's market cap, it would bring extremely substantial appreciation potential. Of course, the process will inevitably be accompanied by severe volatility—this is the essence of the crypto market's "high risk, high reward."
For ordinary investors, the key lies in maintaining rationality, diversifying risks, and focusing on long-term trends rather than short-term noise. Bitcoin's story is far from over. As more traditional capital enters and infrastructure improves, the prologue to this "price explosion" may have just begun. From Gold to Bitcoin: Fixed Supply + Institutional Frenzy, Will It Replay the "Explosive" Price Run?
