CryptoQuant Noted a Signal of a Bitcoin Reversal

The first cryptocurrency may be approaching the end of the bearish phase, as on-chain metrics show the first signs of recovery in spot demand. This conclusion was reached by CryptoQuant.

Spot Demand Has Approached a Reversal

According to analysts, the 30-day visible spot demand indicator has recovered from -206,000 $BTC on July 23 to approximately -5,000 at the moment. The metric is very close to becoming positive for the first time since February 26, 2026.

Historically, such a reversal has been a fairly strong indicator of subsequent growth: in previous cases, the asset showed a median gain of 18.1% over the next 60 days, with a probability of continued upward movement of 78%. At prices significantly undervalued relative to fundamental estimates, the probability increased to 87%.

"A change in demand is a tailwind, not a guarantee, and it must first be completed," warned CryptoQuant specialists.

Is Bitcoin Close to Exiting the Bear Market?

Bitfinex Alpha analysts believe that out of the three conditions necessary for a full recovery of the first cryptocurrency's quotes, two have already been met:

• expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate have improved;
• financial conditions remain relatively soft.

Inflation in the US decreased from 3.5% in June to 3.4% in July, and the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in the coming weeks has diminished. Simultaneously, the decline in short-term Treasury yields and the rise in the stock market have increased investor appetite for risky assets.

But the third factor is still missing - the flow of capital from traditional markets to cryptocurrencies.

It is this factor, according to Bitfinex, that could become the catalyst for the next growth phase. If money currently working in stocks, the technology sector, and AI infrastructure begins to move into digital assets, Bitcoin could not only return above $70,000 but also transition to a stronger upward movement.

So far, the picture is the opposite: over the week, US spot $BTC ETFs lost about $385 million, and the inflow of capital into corporate Bitcoin treasuries has also slowed. The supply of stablecoins remains below the May high. As a result, the market has become quite thin, so a relatively small change in flows can cause a disproportionately strong movement in Bitcoin, both upward and downward.

Under a positive scenario, Bitfinex allows for a return of the price above $70,000. If negative flows persist, the next important support zone could be around $57,000.

ETFs and Miners Are Slowing Down the Range Breakout

Wintermute assessed the current situation more cautiously. The company's specialists also pointed to the loss of approximately $385 million by US spot $BTC ETFs, which was the largest weekly outflow since early July.

At the same time, Bitcoin hardly reacted to the reduced expectations of a Fed rate hike. This is a bad signal for the market: hopes for a relaxation of monetary policy usually stimulate demand for risky assets, but Bitcoin remained under pressure.

Analysts believe that the combination of ETF outflows and sales from miners has deprived the market of one of the main sources of new demand. As an example of pressure from miners, Wintermute cited Riot Platforms. The company sold 4,300 $BTC in the second quarter after selling 3,778 $BTC in the first. Its reserves decreased to 11,380 $BTC, and its mining cost approached $91,000 per coin - significantly above the current price.

This means that some miners are forced to sell accumulated coins to maintain liquidity and finance operations. As long as the price remains significantly below their costs, pressure from the supply side may persist, experts stated.

Recall that on August 17, Bitcoin outperformed the stock market - over the past three months, the asset outperformed the S&P 500 on only one out of three trading days.