The Russian budget has missed out on approximately 1.5 trillion rubles since the beginning of 2026 due to the national currency strengthening beyond planned indicators, according to expert estimates. The financial model for the current year was based on an average annual exchange rate of 92.2 rubles per U.S. dollar, but the actual average for the first seven and a half months was only 76.9 rubles. This discrepancy creates a significant gap between planned and actual revenues, as a 1-ruble appreciation of the national currency against the dollar reduces the budget's annual income by 140–160 billion rubles.
When accounting for oil and gas revenues, the treasury's sensitivity to the exchange rate may be even higher: each ruble in the average annual rate is equivalent to approximately 160 billion rubles in revenues, meaning potential losses for the year could reach 2.5 trillion rubles. Over the nearly eight months that have passed, the budget has already missed out on about 1.7 trillion rubles. More conservative estimates show that a 1-ruble decrease in the average exchange rate leads to state losses of about 140 billion rubles per year, corresponding to a revenue shortfall of 1.4 trillion rubles for the elapsed period.
Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monthly Statistics
The exchange rate in 2026 has shown significant volatility, directly affecting the filling of the state treasury. According to Central Bank of Russia archives, the average monthly values were as follows:
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January — about 77.56 rubles;
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February — about 76.85 rubles;
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March — about 80.76 rubles;
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April — about 76.94 rubles;
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May — about 73.01 rubles (year's low);
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June — about 73.54 rubles;
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July — about 77.80 rubles;
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August (as of mid-month) — about 82.32 rubles.
In May, the national currency reached lows around 70.79–71 rubles per $1, after which a steady weakening began. Since the start of summer, the rate gradually rose, and this process accelerated in August: from 79.46 rubles at the beginning of the month, it climbed to 85.16 rubles by August 19. The official Central Bank of Russia exchange rate on that date was 85.1645 rubles per U.S. dollar. Despite the recent weakening, the average for the year remains significantly below the budget target, confirming a structural deficit in oil and gas revenues.
Forecasts and the Balance of Economic Interests
To fulfill the financial plan, the exchange rate would need to stay above 101 rubles/$ until the end of the year, which seems unlikely. Forecasts indicate that the final average annual exchange rate will be around 80–82 rubles, and under this scenario, the budget will miss out on about 1.6 trillion rubles by the end of 2026. A strong national currency makes imports cheaper and restrains inflation, but simultaneously reduces the ruble revenue of exporters and creates risks for fulfilling social obligations due to falling budget revenues—this fundamental conflict defines the current economic agenda.
The significant deviation of the actual exchange rate from the planned parameter poses a challenge for meeting expenditure obligations without adjusting macroeconomic forecasts. Current dynamics suggest that budgetary policy will be forced to adapt to conditions of a stronger ruble than assumed when drafting the financial plan.
AI Opinion
From the perspective of machine data analysis, the observed gap between the planned and actual exchange rate is not solely due to oil price dynamics—the budget rule mechanism, which can itself move the rate in both directions, also plays a role. The cut-off price for oil is fixed at $59 per barrel of Urals: when this level is exceeded, the Ministry of Finance buys foreign currency for reserves, weakening the ruble; when it falls below, the Ministry sells it, supporting the ruble. Earlier this year, the ministry halted foreign currency sales under this rule, removing some dollar supply from the market and adding pressure on the exchange rate regardless of oil prices.
Similar episodes of mismatch between planned and actual exchange rates have occurred before, under different cut-off prices. The question is how sustainable the current ruble weakening will be into autumn and how the parameters of the budget rule will respond.
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