SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240214)：CPI数据令人失望，BTC大涨迈向5W2

Odaily星球日报Опубліковано о 2024-02-14Востаннє оновлено о 2024-02-14

Анотація

数字货币方面，分析报告指出，除GBTC以外的9只BTC现货ETF资金流入已经抵消了GBTC抛售造成的流出，BTC价格也在近一周的时间内高歌猛进上涨逾20%，接连突破数道阻力位，今日16点期权收盘以后又一波拉盘，向着52000关口迈进。

昨日（13 Feb）居高不下的住房价格给通胀带来压力，核心 CPI 指数环比上涨 0.4% ，超出市场的预期，互换市场定价美联储降息时间延后至七月。美债收益率整体跃升，两年/十年期收益率分别上破 4.6% /4.3% ，强势打压了此前几日美股市场高涨的风险情绪，对利率敏感的板块遭到投资者抛售，SPX 指数从接近 5050 点的历史新高回落至 4953.17 （日内-1.37% ），纳指和道指日内收跌 1.8% /1.35% 。在此情形之下，本周的零售数据和 PPI 数据至关重要，或将影响到市场的短期风险情绪走向。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240214)：CPI数据令人失望，BTC大涨迈向5W2

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240214)：CPI数据令人失望，BTC大涨迈向5W2

Source: Binance & TradingView

数字货币方面，分析报告指出，除 GBTC 以外的 9 只 BTC 现货 ETF 资金流入已经抵消了 GBTC 抛售造成的流出，BTC 价格也在近一周的时间内高歌猛进上涨逾 20% ，接连突破数道阻力位，今日 16 点期权收盘以后又一波拉盘，向着 52000 关口迈进。

期权方面，隐含波动率整体呈现上行趋势，并随着 RV 的变化在中前端产生振幅较大的局部震荡。观察过去 24 小时的交易，市场并没有对此轮 BTC 的上行动能持续进行押注，相反，在当前 RR 处在（过去三个月）的历史最高点之时，我们能在大宗平台上观察到以 26 APR Buy 43000 P vs Sell 60000 C 为代表的 Short Risky 交易，同时也有短期卖出看涨（比例）价差成交。ETH 上情况相对乐观，在大量短期看涨期权被获利平仓的同时，部分看涨建仓向中远期发生转移，例如 29 MAR 3000 vs 3500 Call Spread，以及 28 JUN 4000 Long Call，单腿成交均达到 5000 ETH。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240214)：CPI数据令人失望，BTC大涨迈向5W2

Source: Deribit （截至 14 FEB 16: 00 UTC+ 8）

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240214)：CPI数据令人失望，BTC大涨迈向5W2

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240214)：CPI数据令人失望，BTC大涨迈向5W2

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240214)：CPI数据令人失望，BTC大涨迈向5W2

Data Source: Deribit

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240214)：CPI数据令人失望，BTC大涨迈向5W2

Data Source: Deribit

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240214)：CPI数据令人失望，BTC大涨迈向5W2

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240214)：CPI数据令人失望，BTC大涨迈向5W2

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240214)：CPI数据令人失望，BTC大涨迈向5W2

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