# Rate Cut İlgili Makaleler

HTX Haber Merkezi, kripto endüstrisindeki piyasa trendleri, proje güncellemeleri, teknoloji gelişmeleri ve düzenleyici politikaları kapsayan "Rate Cut" hakkında en son makaleleri ve derinlemesine analizleri sunmaktadır.

Bitcoin Rebounds As Softer Jobs Data Lifts Rate-Cut Hopes

Bitcoin rebounded as softer U.S. jobs data strengthened market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The report indicated a cooling labor market, which could make rate reductions easier to justify if inflation remains manageable. Lower rates typically support risk assets like Bitcoin by improving liquidity expectations and reducing the appeal of cash. However, the positive macro sentiment must contend with ongoing supply-side pressures for Bitcoin. These include large BTC transfers from government wallets and upcoming Mt. Gox repayments, which have made traders sensitive to potential selling pressure. While the market is currently viewing the weak jobs data as supportive, the sustainability of this rally will be tested if significant coin movements toward exchanges occur or if Fed officials push back against aggressive rate-cut forecasts.

bitcoinist07/07 02:44

Bitcoin Rebounds As Softer Jobs Data Lifts Rate-Cut Hopes

bitcoinist07/07 02:44

Building the Bright Path While Secretly Crossing Chencang: Is Walsh Paving the Way for a September "Rate Cut"?

The title "Building the Plank Road Openly While Secretly Crossing at Chencang: Is Walsh Paving the Way for a September 'Rate Cut'?" suggests Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh's hawkish stance may be a deliberate smokescreen. Academy Securities analyst Peter Tchir argues in a report that markets, currently pricing a 75% chance of a September hike, are missing a potential path to a September rate cut that Walsh himself might be quietly preparing. Tchir posits that Walsh's hawkish rhetoric aims to suppress long-term yield risks (with the 10-year Treasury yield falling recently) while creating room for a narrative shift based on upcoming data. The potential political endgame, according to this view, could be rate cuts in September and October, ahead of the midterm elections. This hinges on a political logic where the Trump administration's preference for lower rates remains unchanged. A core part of Tchir's argument involves redefining inflation metrics. He contends the Fed under Walsh may deprioritize the PCE index, criticizing its lagging components like Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER). Instead, he points to alternative, more real-time indicators like the New Tenant Repeat Rent Index (NTRR) and the Truflation daily index, which shows core inflation around 1.45%. He suggests the Fed could shift its data narrative to justify policy easing. Furthermore, Tchir downplays AI-driven inflation fears. He argues that consumer price sensitivity, evidenced by negative market reactions to price hikes (e.g., Apple), contradicts persistent inflation narratives. He also separates AI/data center spending—which he sees as relatively rate-insensitive—from broader consumer affordability issues, implying rate hikes are misdirected. Based on this analysis, Tchir sees a re-pricing of rate cut expectations as likely, creating opportunities in short-duration Treasuries. He maintains a neutral-to-slightly-bullish view on the long end of the yield curve. For equities, he recommends a significant overweight in energy (especially global nuclear assets) and, within defense/security themes, an overweight in biotech/pharma versus an underweight in semiconductors, expressing caution on AI/data center valuations.

marsbit06/29 04:42

Building the Bright Path While Secretly Crossing Chencang: Is Walsh Paving the Way for a September "Rate Cut"?

marsbit06/29 04:42

Fed Turns Hawkish, Wall Street Capitulates, Citi Stands as 'Last Holdout': Insists on Resuming Rate Cuts in October

Amid a surprisingly hawkish shift from the Fed and most of Wall Street capitulating on rate cut expectations, Citigroup stands as a notable outlier, holding firm to its forecast for monetary easing to restart this October. Following the June FOMC meeting, where the "dovish bias" was removed and the dot plot shifted dramatically, markets priced in nearly 37bps of tightening for 2026. Major banks like Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs revised their calls, predicting rate hikes as soon as September. Citigroup, however, maintains a baseline scenario for a 25bps rate cut in October, followed by two more cuts in December and January 2027. Its counter-consensus view rests on three key arguments: 1) Plunging oil prices are eliminating a major inflation upside risk. 2) Rising initial jobless claims are mirroring seasonal weakening patterns seen in 2024-2025, signaling a labor market cool-down. 3) The strong core PCE is an "outlier," heavily influenced by AI-related prices and equity market gains rather than broad consumer price pressures, with other inflation metrics showing more moderation. While Wall Street largely "surrenders" to the hawkish Fed narrative, with Deutsche Bank forecasting two hikes and Goldman Sachs warning of potential back-to-back moves, Citigroup remains the "last holdout," betting that disinflationary forces will pave the way for cuts before year-end.

marsbit06/22 10:39

Fed Turns Hawkish, Wall Street Capitulates, Citi Stands as 'Last Holdout': Insists on Resuming Rate Cuts in October

marsbit06/22 10:39

Three-Year High Smashes Rate-Cut Hopes, Who's Using CPI to Clean Out Whale Holdings?

U.S. CPI inflation accelerated to 4.2% year-over-year in May, reaching a three-year high and dampening market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. The surge was primarily driven by a sharp 23.5% annual increase in energy prices, fueled by geopolitical conflicts. While core CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year, showing relative moderation, the hotter-than-expected headline data prompted a repricing in interest rate markets. Traders now overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold rates steady, with some even pricing in potential rate hikes for late 2026 or 2027. The report triggered declines in major U.S. stock indices and pressured risk assets like Bitcoin, which remained volatile around $61,000-$62,000. Analysts note that while the energy-driven inflation spike is concerning, the controlled core figures provide the Fed room for patience. However, the "higher for longer" interest rate narrative has solidified. For crypto markets, this translates to continued outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, heightened volatility, and a market seemingly in a "capitulation" phase, with leverage reset but sustained demand yet to materialize.

Foresight News06/11 03:14

Three-Year High Smashes Rate-Cut Hopes, Who's Using CPI to Clean Out Whale Holdings?

Foresight News06/11 03:14

Warsh's First Conundrum: Rate Cuts, Inflation, and a Fractured Fed

Walsh's First Dilemma: Rate Cuts, Inflation, and a Divided Fed Kevin Warsh officially assumed the Fed Chairmanship on May 15th, inheriting a central bank deeply divided over inflation. Contrary to market expectations of a dovish stance due to his appointment by President Trump, Warsh's historical record shows early and consistent hawkish concerns about inflation. The Fed he leads is fractured, with three FOMC members recently dissenting against even hinting at future rate cuts. The immediate challenge is surging inflation. While the Iran-related oil shock is a temporary factor, core CPI and services inflation are accelerating, showing signs of becoming entrenched—echoing the Fed's 2022 "transitory" misstep. Warsh faces the task of building consensus within a committee where several members believe policy may not be restrictive enough, especially if the neutral interest rate (r-star) is higher than currently estimated. Politically, Warsh is caught between Trump's desire for rate cuts and the economic reality of persistent price pressures. Any move perceived as bowing to political pressure could undermine Fed independence. Market implications are significant. Long-term Treasury yields (e.g., 30-year at 5.19%) could rise further, especially if the June FOMC statement hints at possible tightening. Tech stocks face continued valuation pressure from higher rates. The key variable is progress in Iran negotiations; a breakthrough before the June meeting could temporarily ease oil-driven inflation, but stubborn services inflation would remain. All eyes are on Warsh's first post-FOMC press conference on June 17th. His wording on inflation and policy will reveal how much the market has mispriced his stance and the Fed's likely path forward.

marsbit05/20 10:01

Warsh's First Conundrum: Rate Cuts, Inflation, and a Fractured Fed

marsbit05/20 10:01

Warsh, Trump's Next 'Scapegoat' at the Federal Reserve?

Kevin Warsh, a nominee for the Federal Reserve chair, faces a challenging confirmation hearing amid political pressure from former President Donald Trump to implement immediate and significant interest rate cuts. Warsh has proposed reforms including reducing the Fed’s communication frequency and shrinking its $6.7 trillion balance sheet. However, market expectations for rate cuts remain limited, creating tension with Trump’s demands. Warsh’s stance has shifted over time, from hawkish during the financial crisis to more dovish recently, citing AI-driven productivity gains. His confirmation is further complicated by Republican Senator Thom Tillis’s threat to block the nomination unless an investigation into current Chair Jerome Powell is dropped. Trump has warned of firing Powell if he doesn’t leave on time. Observers note that Warsh risks becoming a "scapegoat"—either by yielding to political pressure and fueling inflation, or by resisting and facing Trump’s backlash. His ties to Trump’s circle and Wall Street support may aid his nomination, but his ability to balance political demands with the Fed’s credibility remains uncertain. Historical precedents, like Arthur Burns’s compliance with Nixon, highlight the risks of political interference in monetary policy.

marsbit04/20 11:15

Warsh, Trump's Next 'Scapegoat' at the Federal Reserve?

marsbit04/20 11:15

Crypto markets slide after Fed decision as Powell warns inflation risks persist

Crypto markets declined sharply following the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady, driven by Chair Jerome Powell's cautious tone on inflation. Bitcoin fell over 5%, Ethereum dropped more than 6%, and other major cryptocurrencies like XRP, Solana, and BNB also posted significant losses. Powell emphasized that inflation remains elevated, with PCE at 2.8% and core inflation at 3.0%, both above the Fed’s 2% target. He reinforced a data-dependent approach, indicating rate cuts are not imminent. This strengthened the "higher-for-longer" interest rate narrative, which negatively impacts risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The broad sell-off underscores crypto’s continued sensitivity to macroeconomic signals and U.S. monetary policy expectations. Markets are likely remain volatile and reactive to incoming economic data and geopolitical developments.

ambcrypto03/18 22:02

Crypto markets slide after Fed decision as Powell warns inflation risks persist

ambcrypto03/18 22:02

No Rate Cut by the US Fed Likely, Crypto Prices to Move Accordingly

The escalating conflict in the Middle East has reduced the likelihood of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in the upcoming meeting. Rising oil prices, now exceeding $100 per barrel, are fueling inflationary or stagflationary pressures in the US. This could influence cryptocurrency markets, which have recently shown strong weekly gains—Bitcoin and Ethereum rose 6.23% and 13.97%, respectively. In contrast, traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver declined. The Fed aims to maintain steady rates to balance inflation risks and economic stability. Additional factors, such as proposed tariff policies and weakened consumer sentiment, further complicate the economic outlook.

TheNewsCrypto03/18 11:50

No Rate Cut by the US Fed Likely, Crypto Prices to Move Accordingly

TheNewsCrypto03/18 11:50

Hormuz Strait Sparks Oil War, Will the Fed Cut Rates in June First?

U.S. February CPI data showed inflation remained at 2.4% year-on-year, with core CPI at 2.5%, indicating persistent price pressures. The report, collected before U.S.-Israel airstrikes on Iran, did not fully reflect potential energy price impacts from recent geopolitical tensions. Morgan Stanley maintains expectations for two 25-basis-point Fed rate cuts in June and September, though rising oil prices could delay this timeline. Market probabilities currently favor a 64% chance of a June cut. Escalating military conflict between the U.S./Israel and Iran has heightened risks of a major oil supply shock. Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for 20% of global oil shipments, has already driven Brent crude above $100 per barrel. A prolonged closure could push prices to $150 or higher, reminiscent of 1970s-style energy crises, potentially forcing the Fed to maintain higher rates for longer. Bitcoin continues to trade between $54,000 and $78,400, showing relative resilience compared to traditional assets like stocks and bonds. While short-term holders are selling at a loss—a typical bearish signal—crypto market leverage has significantly reduced, decreasing forced selling pressure. The upcoming FOMC meeting remains a key catalyst for both traditional and crypto markets.

marsbit03/12 06:00

Hormuz Strait Sparks Oil War, Will the Fed Cut Rates in June First?

marsbit03/12 06:00

Arthur Hayes Says US-Iran Tensions Could Lead to Fed Easing, Boost BTC

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, argues that escalating U.S.-Iran tensions could lead to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, historically boosting Bitcoin and crypto assets. He cites past military engagements, like the Gulf War and post-9/11 actions, where the Fed injected liquidity to calm markets amid conflict and economic strain. Hayes suggests that if current tensions escalate, similar monetary easing could occur, potentially benefiting Bitcoin. He advises investors to wait for rate cuts before buying. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price recently fell 1.10% to $66,291, down significantly from its 2025 peak.

TheNewsCrypto03/02 08:26

Arthur Hayes Says US-Iran Tensions Could Lead to Fed Easing, Boost BTC

TheNewsCrypto03/02 08:26

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