When Crypto Projects Run Out of Supply, What Can Traders Trade?
The article examines the severe downturn in the crypto market, particularly the sharp decline in Bitcoin and altcoin prices, and raises a critical question: what will traders be able to trade in a year if the supply of new crypto-native projects dries up?
Data shows a structural collapse in early-stage funding for crypto projects (like L1s, L2s, DeFi), with a 63.9% drop in seed/angel rounds over four years. This "first-level market death" means fewer new tokens will launch, leaving exchanges and traders with a shrinking pool of native assets. Even established crypto funds are struggling with poor returns and low cash distributions post-2020.
While memes surged as an alternative, they have evolved into short-term, attention-based assets driven by liquidity and speculation—not sustainable replacements for traditional altcoins.
The industry is now looking outward for solutions:
- **Tokenization of real-world assets (RWA)**: Platforms are listing tokenized stocks, metals, and indices to attract traders with traditional market volatility and narratives.
- **Prediction markets**: Platforms like Polymarket are growing rapidly by allowing direct betting on real-world events (e.g., elections, macro trends), simplifying speculation to yes/no outcomes based on probability.
In conclusion, as native project pipelines shrink, the market is shifting from "new token-driven trading" to speculating on external uncertainties and tradable narratives from the broader world. Traders must adapt to this new paradigm.
比推02/02 16:23
