# Iran İlgili Makaleler

HTX Haber Merkezi, kripto endüstrisindeki piyasa trendleri, proje güncellemeleri, teknoloji gelişmeleri ve düzenleyici politikaları kapsayan "Iran" hakkında en son makaleleri ve derinlemesine analizleri sunmaktadır.

Why Has Bitcoin Risen Against the Trend Amid Turmoil?

Title: Why Bitcoin Defies Market Turmoil and Rises Against the Odds? Amidst the recent Iran conflict, Bitcoin demonstrated unexpected strength, rising 12% while traditional risk assets like the S&P 500 fell 1% and gold dropped 10%. This challenges the conventional view of Bitcoin is a risk-on asset. Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO, argues that Bitcoin’s surge is not due to ignorance of geopolitical tensions or long-term money printing expectations, but is directly driven by the conflict itself. Hougan proposes a dual-investment thesis for Bitcoin: it acts both as a "digital gold" competing in the $38 trillion store-of-value market, and as a speculative bet on becoming a genuine global currency. While the first narrative has dominated the past five years, the second—once a distant possibility—is gaining relevance as global financial systems become increasingly weaponized. The 2022 SWIFT sanctions against Russia marked a turning point, prompting nations to explore alternative financial networks. Iran’s recent move to demand Bitcoin payments for shipping tolls in the Strait of Hormuz exemplifies this shift. Such developments increase the probability of Bitcoin being used as a neutral, apolitical settlement medium and amplify global monetary system volatility. This dual role suggests Bitcoin’s potential market extends beyond gold’s $38 trillion valuation. Its pricing is now influenced not only by liquidity or tech stock trends but also by growing uncertainties in the international financial architecture. As geopolitical friction elevates Bitcoin’s monetary attributes, its upside potential may be significantly revalued.

marsbit22 saat önce

Why Has Bitcoin Risen Against the Trend Amid Turmoil?

marsbit22 saat önce

Interest Rates May Not Be Cut This Year

The article discusses how a war in the Persian Gulf, leading to Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has driven up oil prices, with Brent crude surging from $70 to over $118 per barrel. This energy shock has pushed U.S. retail gasoline prices above $4 per gallon, contributing significantly to inflation. The CPI rose to 3.3% in March, the largest monthly increase since June 2022, with energy costs affecting broader sectors like food and logistics. As a result, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in 2026 has diminished. Market predictions now show a high probability of zero rate cuts, compared to pre-war expectations of multiple cuts. The Fed faces a dilemma between addressing inflation risks and supporting the economy. Politically, the situation poses challenges for President Trump and the Republican Party, as high inflation could impact the upcoming midterm elections. Trump's efforts to negotiate with Iran have stalled due to irreconcilable demands, and Iran's拖延 tactics may further strain U.S. economic and political stability. The article concludes that the prolonged conflict and sustained high oil prices could keep inflation elevated, delaying any monetary easing.

marsbit2 gün önce 02:03

Interest Rates May Not Be Cut This Year

marsbit2 gün önce 02:03

Why Does Iran Prefer Stablecoins as the Currency for Transit Through the Strait of Hormuz?

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has reportedly begun charging vessels a transit fee—reportedly around $1 per barrel of oil—for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Although initial statements mentioned Bitcoin, analysis suggests stablecoins are more likely to be used, aligning with Iran’s established pattern of using dollar-pegged stablecoins for large-scale, sanctions-evading trade. The IRGC’s crypto activity, which accounted for nearly half of Iran’s $7.8 billion crypto ecosystem in Q4 2025, heavily relies on stablecoins for oil sales and illicit financing. This move introduces significant sanctions risks for shipping companies, as payments to Iran may violate international sanctions. Stablecoin issuers, regulators, and law enforcement are urged to identify and freeze IRGC-linked wallets to disrupt these flows.

marsbit04/13 10:43

Why Does Iran Prefer Stablecoins as the Currency for Transit Through the Strait of Hormuz?

marsbit04/13 10:43

The Return of the Rimland: A Renewed Game Around Sea Power, Energy, and the Dollar

Retitled "The Return of the Rimland: A Re-Game Surrounding Sea Power, Energy, and the Dollar," this analysis argues that the conflict centered on Iran is no longer a localized military issue but a systemic global struggle over who controls the flows of energy and trade. The U.S. is employing a "Rimland" strategy, using naval blockades, threats of 50% tariffs on nations aiding Iran, and the redirection of energy routes (like reactivating the Trans-Arabian Pipeline) to draw China into the conflict and bypass strategic chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz. This has turned a regional confrontation into a structural shock impacting global energy markets, supply chains, and the financial system. Key market risks are not yet fully priced in. While oil prices have spiked, the second-order effects—such as tightened liquidity, pressure on tech investments (like AI from helium supply risks), reduced consumer spending, and agricultural supply shocks from high fertilizer costs—are only beginning to manifest. The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma on whether to tighten policy against this energy-driven inflation. The conflict's escalation is inevitable; the central questions are the pathways of its diffusion and when markets will price in these broader, systemic risks.

marsbit04/13 09:50

The Return of the Rimland: A Renewed Game Around Sea Power, Energy, and the Dollar

marsbit04/13 09:50

The Most Dangerous Move: Why the War Becomes Harder to End After Blocking the Strait of Hormuz?

In a strategic shift following failed US-Iran negotiations, former President Trump announced a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, effective immediately, targeting all vessels from Iranian ports. This move, described as tactically "smart," seizes control of the critical chokepoint from Iran—which had weaponized it as a lucrative toll route—and resets narrative主动权 to the US. However, the blockade is unlikely to force Iran into concessions due to its resilient economy, proxy networks, near-nuclear capabilities, and support from China, which relies on Iranian oil. Instead, it risks escalating conflict, potentially triggering retaliatory actions in the Red Sea, attacks on Gulf infrastructure, or nuclear advancement. The blockade also undermines decades of US-led maritime order, as Washington weaponizes a global trade artery it once protected. Market scenarios range from prolonged stalemate (50% probability, oil at $95-120) to severe escalation (25%, oil above $150), with asymmetric tail risks favoring bullish positions on oil and gold. The action may prolong war, reduce diplomatic space, and alter global risk pricing, with outcomes hinging on Iranian responses, Chinese countermeasures, and enforcement loopholes.

marsbit04/13 06:57

The Most Dangerous Move: Why the War Becomes Harder to End After Blocking the Strait of Hormuz?

marsbit04/13 06:57

After TACO Ceasefire, Iran War Is Only Paused

The article analyzes the temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, suggesting it represents a pause rather than a resolution to the conflict. U.S. President Donald Trump accepted a two-week truce amid political and economic pressures, temporarily calming markets and allies. However, core issues remain unresolved: Iran shows no willingness to abandon its nuclear or missile programs, nor to concede to U.S. demands for regime change. Instead, Iran has strengthened its control over the Strait of Hormuz, potentially leveraging it for long-term geopolitical gains, including imposing transit fees on oil tankers. The conflict has exposed divisions within the U.S. Republican Party, with Trump facing criticism from both hawks and moderates over his aggressive threats and strategic reversals. The ceasefire, while providing a short-term de-escalation, fails to address underlying structural tensions, leaving the situation volatile and open to further escalation.

marsbit04/12 02:38

After TACO Ceasefire, Iran War Is Only Paused

marsbit04/12 02:38

A Ceasefire Without Trust Is Merely a Pause

"The Ceasefire Neither Side Can Keep" by Thomas Aldren examines the fragile truce between Iran and the US in 2026, framing it as a pause rather than a path to peace. The article argues that the lack is structural, rooted in both nations' historical and theological paths. Iran's political theology, since Khomeini's 1988 fatwa, reserves the right to revoke commitments if state interests demand, placing the state above all else. The US, having withdrawn from the JCPOA and pursued maximum pressure and military strikes like the 2025 "Midnight Hammer" operation, undermined its own credibility as a contractual partner. This mutual "idolatry"—elevating military power or state authority above covenant—has destroyed the moral and institutional foundations for trust. The ceasefire, with no public text or verification, is an empty shell. True peace requires both sides to first acknowledge their own idolatrous patterns rather than solely blaming the other.

marsbit04/09 13:04

A Ceasefire Without Trust Is Merely a Pause

marsbit04/09 13:04

Crypto Traders Shrugs Off Inflation Data as Iran Tensions Simmer

Crypto traders are largely dismissing the potential impact of the upcoming U.S. March inflation data, despite expectations that it may reflect inflationary pressures from the Iran conflict. Market analysis indicates a predicted Bitcoin price fluctuation of only 2.5%, which falls within its recent average volatility. This sentiment is reflected in the low implied volatility index, which has dropped to a multi-month low. Options and derivatives pricing suggests that investors do not view the inflation report as a significant market-moving event. Additionally, interest rate markets have already scaled back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year due to inflation risks from the Middle East tensions and oil price shocks.

TheNewsCrypto04/09 12:28

Crypto Traders Shrugs Off Inflation Data as Iran Tensions Simmer

TheNewsCrypto04/09 12:28

Iran Announces Crypto Tolls: Oil Tankers Must Pay In Bitcoin For Hormuz Passage

Iran has announced it will require oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz to pay tolls in cryptocurrency, primarily Bitcoin, during a two-week ceasefire. The policy, communicated by an industry spokesperson, aims to monitor cargo and prevent weapons transfers while avoiding traceable transactions under sanctions. Vessels must submit cargo information via email and make immediate Bitcoin payments upon fee assessment. The move follows a temporary halt in U.S. military action and highlights the use of Bitcoin as a censorship-resistant asset for sovereign transactions. Analysts describe it as a significant real-world application of cryptocurrency. Bitcoin’s price rose following the news, trading near $71,570.

bitcoinist04/09 09:02

Iran Announces Crypto Tolls: Oil Tankers Must Pay In Bitcoin For Hormuz Passage

bitcoinist04/09 09:02

Paying the Strait Transit Fee with Bitcoin: Is Iran Just Talking Big?

An article titled "Bitcoin Payment for Strait Transit Fees: Is Iran Just Making Empty Threats?" discusses Iran's announcement to potentially charge a $1 per barrel transit fee for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, payable in Bitcoin, during a two-week ceasefire period. This news briefly drove Bitcoin's price above $73,000, highlighting its symbolic significance as a tool for extreme scenarios where traditional financial systems fail due to sanctions. Iran, facing severe U.S. sanctions and exclusion from SWIFT, views Bitcoin as a means to ensure untraceable and unconfiscatable transactions, despite its volatility and slower settlement times. However, the practicality of this move is questioned. The Strait of Hormuz closed shortly after the announcement, leading to skepticism about its implementation. Experts like Arthur Hayes emphasize the need for on-chain evidence to validate the claim, suggesting it may be more of a psychological tactic against Western financial systems than a feasible plan. Even if Iran collects Bitcoin, converting it to fiat for essential purchases remains challenging under current sanctions. The article concludes that Bitcoin’s role in this geopolitical drama—whether as a practical tool or a strategic signal—marks its entry into high-stakes international politics, reinforcing its relevance in a fragmented world.

Odaily星球日报04/09 08:52

Paying the Strait Transit Fee with Bitcoin: Is Iran Just Talking Big?

Odaily星球日报04/09 08:52

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