# Fed Policy İlgili Makaleler

HTX Haber Merkezi, kripto endüstrisindeki piyasa trendleri, proje güncellemeleri, teknoloji gelişmeleri ve düzenleyici politikaları kapsayan "Fed Policy" hakkında en son makaleleri ve derinlemesine analizleri sunmaktadır.

Bitcoin at $62K: Why CoinShares warns ‘this still looks like early stage of bottoming’

Bitcoin has stabilized near $62,000 after a decline, but CoinShares warns this appears to be the early stage of a bottoming process rather than a clear start of a new upward trend. The recent rebound was triggered by a weaker-than-expected U.S. June jobs report, which lowered expectations for imminent Fed rate hikes and made riskier assets like crypto more attractive. However, the report cautions this is a transient market response, noting the Fed's recent stance remains hawkish with higher long-term rate projections. Major challenges persist, including past large-scale sell-offs by whale wallets, geopolitical uncertainty, and capital shifting from Bitcoin ETPs into AI-focused ETFs. While trading interest is rising, the current combination of low price and high market leverage increases the risk of a sharp, liquidation-driven price move in either direction.

ambcrypto4 saat önce

Bitcoin at $62K: Why CoinShares warns ‘this still looks like early stage of bottoming’

ambcrypto4 saat önce

Bitcoin Drops Below $60,000 Again; After 20 Months, What We've Waited For Is a New Low

Bitcoin has once again fallen below the key $60,000 psychological support level, hitting a low of approximately $59,023—its lowest point in nearly 20 months since October 2024. The price has since partially recovered to around $60,600. This decline is driven by two main factors. First, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a historic wave of net outflows, losing roughly $5.94 billion over 30 days. Sustained institutional redemptions create direct selling pressure in the spot market. Second, shifting macroeconomic expectations are adding pressure. Strong U.S. job data and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve have increased market pricing for potential rate hikes, undermining the liquidity-driven bullish thesis for Bitcoin. Analyst views are mixed. 21Shares maintains a year-end target of $100,000, citing historical post-halving patterns and strong ETF accumulation. In contrast, Arthur Hayes predicts a potential drop to $40,000 within six months due to persistent Fed pressure. CryptoQuant notes that the average investor cost basis is around $53,000 and suggests the bear market could extend into 2026/2027 without clear signs of renewed demand. Market focus now turns to upcoming U.S. inflation data and Fed signals. Bitcoin's ability to hold the $60,000 level is seen as critical for determining the near-term market direction.

marsbit06/25 01:04

Bitcoin Drops Below $60,000 Again; After 20 Months, What We've Waited For Is a New Low

marsbit06/25 01:04

STRC Hits Historic Low, Saylor's Perpetual Motion Machine Grinds to a Halt

STRC, the perpetual preferred stock issued by MicroStrategy to fund its Bitcoin purchases, hit a historic low of $85.32, a 17% discount to its $100 par value. Designed as a "digital credit engine" to trade stably near par and enable continuous share issuance for buying Bitcoin, its plunge signals a breakdown in this model. Three key factors drove the decline: 1. Bitcoin's price fell over 50% from its peak, trading around $63,000 amid hawkish Fed signals. 2. MicroStrategy's cash reserves were depleted after a $1.5 billion convertible note repayment, slashing the dividend coverage for STRC's 11.5% yield to ~7 months. The company then sold 32 BTC to cover dividends—Michael Saylor's first Bitcoin sale since 2022—damaging the "never sell" narrative. 3. A competing Bitcoin-backed preferred stock, Strive's SATA, offers a higher yield (~13%) and daily dividends, drawing investors away from STRC. The drop triggers a negative cycle: STRC below par halts ATM share issuances, cutting off a key funding source for Bitcoin buys and potentially forcing more BTC sales for dividends, further eroding confidence. While Saylor argues the model is mathematically sound—needing only 2.3% annual Bitcoin growth to sustain itself—the market is testing the resilience of the leveraged Bitcoin treasury strategy in a bear market. The STRC price now reflects rising skepticism about this financial machinery's durability during downturns.

marsbit06/19 05:32

STRC Hits Historic Low, Saylor's Perpetual Motion Machine Grinds to a Halt

marsbit06/19 05:32

Nasdaq Plunges 4.2% in a Single Day, Did 'Black Friday' Pop the U.S. Stock Bubble?

The Nasdaq Composite plummeted 4.18% on June 5, its biggest single-day drop since April 2025, triggering widespread debate over whether the U.S. stock market has peaked. The sell-off was sparked by a stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which fueled fears of economic overheating and pushed back market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, leading to a sharp rise in Treasury yields. The AI sector, the primary driver of the recent bull market, suffered severe losses, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index crashing over 10%. Stocks like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Micron led the decline. Concerns are mounting about the sustainability of AI capital expenditures and high valuations, with signs of order cuts for next-generation chips emerging. Analyses point to several warning signs: historically high market valuations (e.g., elevated Shiller CAPE ratio, Buffett Indicator), extreme bullish sentiment indicators, and significant insider selling. The sell-off also caused a key technical breakdown, with the S&P 500 breaking below its short-term moving average and testing its 200-day moving average. Wall Street is divided on the outlook. Bears warn this could be the start of a bubble deflation or a "stagflation" scenario, while bulls view it as a healthy, overdue correction within a bull market driven by solid corporate earnings growth. A more moderate view suggests the easy liquidity-driven rally is over, and markets are entering a phase of fundamental stock-picking with potential for consolidation. The immediate future hinges on key upcoming events: the May CPI report and the mid-June FOMC meeting. Their outcomes will be critical in determining whether this is a temporary pullback or the beginning of a more significant trend reversal. The consensus is that the era of one-directional market gains may be ending, requiring increased investor caution.

Odaily星球日报06/08 10:36

Nasdaq Plunges 4.2% in a Single Day, Did 'Black Friday' Pop the U.S. Stock Bubble?

Odaily星球日报06/08 10:36

Nasdaq Plummets 4% Overnight, $1.3 Trillion Evaporated, U.S. Stocks Suffer Triple Blow

A severe market correction hit US stocks on June 5th, with the Nasdaq plunging 4.18%, erasing $1.3 trillion in chip stock value. The sell-off was triggered by three simultaneous factors. First, Broadcom's earnings report, while showing strong AI chip revenue growth of 143%, provided a Q3 AI revenue forecast that fell short of the most optimistic analyst expectations, casting doubt on the 'infinite AI growth' narrative and sparking a sector-wide rout. Second, a much stronger-than-expected May jobs report (172k vs. 80k expected) significantly increased market bets on a potential Federal Reserve rate hike instead of a cut, putting pressure on high-valuation tech stocks. Third, persistent high oil prices due to the ongoing Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruption continue to fuel inflation concerns, limiting the Fed's policy options. The combined effect attacked the core market pillars of boundless AI growth and expected monetary easing. While the暴跌 represents a significant valuation repricing, the underlying AI demand remains strong. The market's direction now hinges on the upcoming Fed meeting, further AI company guidance, and developments in the Iran conflict.

marsbit06/06 03:00

Nasdaq Plummets 4% Overnight, $1.3 Trillion Evaporated, U.S. Stocks Suffer Triple Blow

marsbit06/06 03:00

BIT Research: ETF Purchases Have Slowed, Strategy (MicroStrategy) Has Slowed, What Else Can Drive Bitcoin's Rise?

Market Refocus on Inflation and Rate Expectations Weighs on Bitcoin Currently, the market is in a phase of macro-repricing dominated by inflation and interest rate expectations. Bitcoin, which previously benefited from easy liquidity and low inflation, is seeing its core bullish drivers weaken. These drivers were market expectations for interest rate cuts and strong inflows from Bitcoin ETFs and institutions like MicroStrategy (referred to as "Strategy" in the text). The logic has shifted. Recent high inflation data (e.g., CPI hitting 3.8% in a May 2026 report) has caused the market to sharply reduce its rate cut expectations for 2025 and even price in potential hikes. This is a key constraint for Bitcoin, as it lacks cash flows and is highly sensitive to rate expectations. Concurrently, institutional capital flows have slowed significantly. Following the hot CPI data, Bitcoin ETFs saw accelerated outflows, with around $4.3 billion leaving over a period. MicroStrategy's ability to keep adding substantial Bitcoin to its balance sheet is also diminishing. Together, ETF and MicroStrategy holdings total roughly $110 billion, but their momentum as growth engines is cooling. In summary, Bitcoin's current pressure stems not from its own fundamentals but from a changing macro environment. As long as inflation stays elevated, Bitcoin is likely to remain in a consolidating phase. However, historically, inflation eventually peaks. Once it recedes and rate cut expectations rebuild, institutional capital could return, potentially fueling a new and more robust recovery phase for Bitcoin.

marsbit06/05 06:59

BIT Research: ETF Purchases Have Slowed, Strategy (MicroStrategy) Has Slowed, What Else Can Drive Bitcoin's Rise?

marsbit06/05 06:59

AI Leads Market Trend, Marvell Surges Over 14% in Night Trading, Gold Rises 1%, Aluminum at Four-Year High, Bitcoin Falls Below 70k

Global markets regained ground after a brief dip, driven by renewed buying in AI-related stocks. The MSCI World Index rose 0.1%, with Asian equities reversing early losses and the Nasdaq 100 futures narrowing declines. Marvell soared over 14% in after-hours trading. Meanwhile, Iran's suspension of talks with the US heightened Middle East tensions, impacting commodities. Brent crude hovered near $94 a barrel, while gold rose about 1%. Aluminum prices hit a four-year high above $3,775 per ton on supply concerns, and copper also gained. Bitcoin fell 1.4% to just over $70,000. Investors remain focused on AI-driven gains—evident in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's surge—but some warn of stretched valuations. Upcoming US economic data, including Friday's jobs report, will be closely watched for clues on Federal Reserve policy.

华尔街日报06/02 07:42

AI Leads Market Trend, Marvell Surges Over 14% in Night Trading, Gold Rises 1%, Aluminum at Four-Year High, Bitcoin Falls Below 70k

华尔街日报06/02 07:42

BIT Research: If It Followed Nasdaq, Bitcoin Should Be Close to $140,000

BIT Research: Bitcoin Price Analysis Under Inflation Re-pricing The market is currently undergoing a macro adjustment phase dominated by inflation re-pricing. Analysis suggests that if Bitcoin had continued to follow Nasdaq's trajectory, its theoretical price would be near $140,000. However, a significant divergence between the two assets has emerged since October 2025. The core reason is the resurgence of US inflation, which has led to a reversal in market expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate-cut path. Recent data shows US CPI rising to 3.8% and PPI to 6.0%, prompting markets to scale back expectations for 2026 rate cuts. For Bitcoin, the previous supportive narrative of anticipated loose liquidity is weakening. Concurrently, escalating tensions involving Iran have driven oil prices up approximately 40% since late February 2026, heightening inflation concerns through rising energy costs. While the market currently views this inflation surge as a temporary pressure point, the interplay between energy, interest rates, and risk appetite is prompting a reassessment of the potential for a prolonged high-rate environment. In this context, Bitcoin has begun to underperform tech stocks, which can benefit from nominal inflation. The divergence stems from a key distinction: Bitcoin's past rallies were driven by loose liquidity and rate-cut expectations, not inflation itself. As a long-duration asset, Bitcoin is highly sensitive to interest rate paths. When expectations for rate cuts are withdrawn, its valuation faces pressure. Unlike equities, which can benefit from increased nominal revenues and reduced real debt burdens during inflation, Bitcoin possesses neither debt that inflates away nor cash flows that expand with inflation, offering no direct structural benefit from rising prices. Looking ahead, the critical question is whether high inflation will force the Fed to maintain elevated rates for longer. The BIT model anticipates US CPI could potentially rise further to 6.0%. Additionally, factors like AI infrastructure expansion—driving data center construction and power demand—may sustain energy price pressures and extend the period of above-target inflation. In such an environment, tech stocks gain from order growth and improved earnings expectations, while Bitcoin remains susceptible to high-rate pressure. In summary, the current shift does not invalidate Bitcoin's long-term thesis but reflects a market re-evaluation of interest rate and liquidity paths amid resurgent inflation. In the short term, a high-inflation environment may continue to suppress Bitcoin's performance relative to Nasdaq. This represents a slowdown in its upward momentum rather than a bearish turn. Bitcoin could regain support once markets begin to reprice expectations for future liquidity easing.

marsbit05/15 10:07

BIT Research: If It Followed Nasdaq, Bitcoin Should Be Close to $140,000

marsbit05/15 10:07

Is the Rebound an Illusion? The Bond Market Has Already Given the Answer

Is the stock market's rapid rebound to pre-war levels a sign of recovery or a misleading rally driven by momentum rather than fundamentals? While the S&P 500 has fully recovered its losses from the U.S.-Iran conflict and nears all-time highs, bond and oil markets tell a different story. Key data reveals contradictions: 10-year Treasury yields have risen 30 basis points, signaling persistent inflation concerns and constrained Fed policy space. WTI crude is up 37%, indicating that geopolitical risks are not priced to resolve soon. The 2-year Treasury yield, a sensitive gauge of rate expectations, has increased nearly 40 bps, challenging the narrative of imminent Fed rate cuts. The equity market appears to be pricing in a "perfect scenario": subdued oil impact on consumption, Fed rate cuts despite hot inflation, stable corporate margins, and near-term conflict resolution. However, bonds and oil reflect a reality of sticky inflation, limited Fed flexibility, and ongoing geopolitical tension. This divergence suggests the rally may be momentum-driven rather than fundamentally justified. If upcoming CPI data exceeds expectations (e.g., above 3.5%), the 2026 rate-cut narrative could collapse. Investors chasing the rally are betting on an ideal outcome—swift conflict resolution, controlled inflation, Fed easing, and resilient earnings—while ignoring signals from more cautious asset classes. The gap will likely close either through a fundamental improvement validating stocks or a market correction aligning with bond and oil realities.

marsbit04/16 07:05

Is the Rebound an Illusion? The Bond Market Has Already Given the Answer

marsbit04/16 07:05

$700 Billion Poured into AI, Americans Taste the Bitter Fruit of Inflation First

A Federal Reserve analysis from the St. Louis Fed argues that AI optimism itself is a driver of inflation. The "news shock" of AI's revolutionary potential causes households and businesses to increase spending and investment in anticipation of future gains, pushing demand beyond current supply and creating inflationary pressure. This is supported by a Deutsche Bank experiment where AI models (dbLumina, Claude, ChatGPT-5.2) assessed a 20-40% probability that AI would raise inflation in the next year, citing surging demand for data centers, semiconductors, and electricity. They saw only a 5% chance of AI significantly reducing inflation. Massive capital expenditure underscores this demand. Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta are projected to spend a combined ~$663B in 2026, a fourfold increase in four years. A significant portion funds power-hungry data centers. For example, OpenAI's "Stargate" project plans a 10-gigawatt capacity, equivalent to the entire electricity load of 16 Vermont states. U.S. data center electricity consumption is forecast to triple by 2030. While AI could eventually boost productivity and be disinflationary long-term, current data shows no such productivity jump. The U.S. economy now faces a cycle: massive AI investment fuels inflation, delays interest rate cuts, raises financing costs—yet the investment continues to accelerate. The outcome hinges on whether these AI models will ultimately make the economy more efficient, a question that remains unanswered.

marsbit04/02 11:03

$700 Billion Poured into AI, Americans Taste the Bitter Fruit of Inflation First

marsbit04/02 11:03

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