# Capitulation İlgili Makaleler

HTX Haber Merkezi, kripto endüstrisindeki piyasa trendleri, proje güncellemeleri, teknoloji gelişmeleri ve düzenleyici politikaları kapsayan "Capitulation" hakkında en son makaleleri ve derinlemesine analizleri sunmaktadır.

No supply shock yet – Why Bitcoin’s price bottom may have to wait

The article argues that while typical bear market signals suggest Bitcoin may be nearing a bottom, a true price recovery likely requires a "supply shock" that hasn't yet materialized. Key signals point to a potential bottom: short-term holders are selling at a loss, miner stress is increasing as production costs exceed the spot price, and market sentiment is in "extreme fear." This weak hand capitulation is often seen as a late-stage bearish sign. However, a critical piece is missing: sustained demand. On-chain data shows Bitcoin exchange reserves have increased in 2026, meaning selling pressure is flowing onto exchanges rather than being absorbed by buyers. Institutional flows from spot ETFs remain negative. Therefore, until exchange balances decline and buyers absorb the excess supply, a meaningful supply shock—a prerequisite for a sustained price bottom and reversal—remains unlikely. The current consolidation may be premature for calling a definitive bottom.

ambcrypto19 saat önce

No supply shock yet – Why Bitcoin’s price bottom may have to wait

ambcrypto19 saat önce

Continuous Net Outflows from ETFs, Are Institutions Exiting?

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced approximately $6 billion in net outflows over the past six weeks, marking the longest consecutive weekly withdrawal streak since their launch in 2024. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) from BlackRock has been particularly affected, accounting for over 70% of recent outflows. On-chain analysis indicates that long-term Bitcoin holders (holding for over 155 days), who control about 83% of the circulating supply, remain steadfast. The selling pressure is primarily coming from allocators who entered through ETF brokerage accounts. This represents the first major collective capitulation since Bitcoin gained mainstream Wall Street recognition, driven more by risk-off portfolio adjustments than a fundamental rejection of the asset. Factors such as rising inflation, a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve policy, massive capital inflows into AI infrastructure, and attractive IPO opportunities have redirected speculative funds. Bitcoin, treated as a high-beta risk asset, was among the first to be sold. While the pace of outflows has slowed significantly—from $1.72 billion in early June to $226.8 million mid-month—the structural issue remains. IBIT's large size means its outflows alone exert substantial market pressure. With spot market volume thin, new capital inflows absent, and ETF buying muted, the market lacks sufficient buying support to absorb this selling. The coming sessions are critical. If IBIT outflows decelerate and Bitcoin reclaims $60,000, this phase could be seen as a healthy reset. However, if heavy IBIT redemptions resume and the price falls below $58,000, it would signal a more sustained institutional exit, requiring non-ETF buyers to shoulder the entire selling pressure alone. The ETF, while lowering entry barriers, has not removed Bitcoin's inherent volatility.

marsbit22 saat önce

Continuous Net Outflows from ETFs, Are Institutions Exiting?

marsbit22 saat önce

Can BTC whales save Bitcoin after $4.06B ETF outflows?

Institutional demand for Bitcoin shows signs of weakening, with U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs experiencing seven consecutive days of net outflows, totaling roughly $4.06 billion in monthly outflows and reducing total ETF assets to $72.82 billion. This decline removes a key source of structural spot buying. However, large Bitcoin holders (whales) have shown increased accumulation activity as prices dipped below $60,000, with a significant spike in high-value transactions, suggesting they view the correction as a buying opportunity. This whale demand could help cushion near-term selling pressure. Conversely, Long-Term Holders are showing signs of capitulation, with metrics indicating realized losses and eroding conviction, which may eventually reduce future selling pressure. For a sustained recovery, broader spot market participation remains essential.

ambcryptoDün 06:02

Can BTC whales save Bitcoin after $4.06B ETF outflows?

ambcryptoDün 06:02

Strategy’s Bitcoin gamble turns sour: $14B loss raises fears of a deeper BTC fall

Bitcoin faces increasing bearish pressure, with potential for its first three consecutive negative quarters since 2022 following a 22% Q1 drop and a 12.2% Q2 decline. A negative Q3 would signal a shift toward a structural downtrend. Concerns center on Strategy's digital asset treasury (STRC), which has fallen nearly 25% this cycle. Strategy holds an estimated $14 billion in unrealized Bitcoin losses, raising doubts about its ability to sustain STRC's 11.5% dividend yield ($1.2B annually) and continue future Bitcoin purchases. This situation heightens the risk of deeper market capitulation, potentially pushing BTC lower.

ambcrypto06/27 02:02

Strategy’s Bitcoin gamble turns sour: $14B loss raises fears of a deeper BTC fall

ambcrypto06/27 02:02

BTC Market Pulse: Week 25

Bitcoin is attempting a modest rebound from oversold levels, but structural data indicates stabilization, not a trend reversal. Key shifts include a move from selling to buying pressure in perpetual futures and a near-flattening of spot selling. However, the bounce lacks conviction, evidenced by a 40% drop in spot volume and declining open interest, suggesting it is driven by short covering rather than new bullish bets. Market fear has receded sharply, with volatility spreads collapsing and ETF outflows narrowing. On-chain activity is subdued, with falling transaction volumes and continued capital exit. While capitulation is slowing and the supply is shifting to longer-term holders, profitability remains stressed. The overall picture is of a market building a consolidation base, lacking the volume and fresh institutional capital needed for a confirmed reversal.

insights.glassnode06/15 23:11

BTC Market Pulse: Week 25

insights.glassnode06/15 23:11

Bitcoin Market Faces A Potential Profitability Reset As More Coins Slip Out Of Profit

The Bitcoin market is experiencing significant pressure, with the price dropping to around $61,000, leading to a sharp decline in the percentage of BTC supply held in profit. Analysts note this metric is approaching a critical 45% threshold, historically associated with market stress and a potential "profitability reset." This shift indicates broad-based weakness, moving many holders from unrealized gains to losses, which often helps eliminate excess market speculation. The process involves a redistribution of coins from weaker to longer-term investors, potentially creating short-term volatility but a healthier market structure over time. While not pinpointing a market bottom, such low profitability levels have coincided with capitulation risks and long-term buying opportunities in past cycles. Current analysis points to key liquidity zones at $64,000-$66,500 (upside) and $58,000-$60,000 (downside), with the market undergoing a deep reset rather than a euphoric phase.

bitcoinist06/12 02:33

Bitcoin Market Faces A Potential Profitability Reset As More Coins Slip Out Of Profit

bitcoinist06/12 02:33

XRP Realized Profit-To-Loss Ratio Plunges – What The Market Should Be Expecting

XRP's Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio has plunged sharply to 0.38, indicating that for every dollar of loss realized, only 38 cents of profit is being taken. This deep drop below 1 signals a market where most moving coins are sold at a loss, reflecting intense capitulation amid ongoing bearish price pressure below $1.2. Despite the weak price performance, spot trading activity is increasing, led predominantly by large whale investors who often dominate during accumulation phases. Concurrently, XRP reserves on major exchanges like Upbit are showing a slight decline—a trend historically associated with subsequent price rallies. Analysts suggest these dynamics could potentially set the stage for a market bounce if the withdrawal trend continues.

bitcoinist06/10 23:02

XRP Realized Profit-To-Loss Ratio Plunges – What The Market Should Be Expecting

bitcoinist06/10 23:02

Monera Digital｜Crypto Market May Report: Four Major Reasons Behind the Accelerated Decline

Monera Digital Crypto Market May Report: Four Key Reasons Behind the Accelerated Decline The crypto market experienced a significant downturn in May, driven by an internal liquidity crisis rather than external macro factors. Bitcoin fell from around $82,850 to $73,674, even as traditional markets rallied in the final week, highlighting a clear "liquidity transmission failure" specific to crypto. Four primary internal factors caused the accelerated sell-off: 1. **Major ETF Outflows:** U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $2.425 billion for the month, the third-largest monthly withdrawal since their launch. Ethereum ETFs also reversed to net outflows. This turned a key pillar of the bull run into a source of selling pressure. 2. **Holder Capitulation:** On-chain data showed textbook "surrender" patterns. The Short-Term Holder MVRV ratio fell below 1.0, indicating this cohort is now in aggregate loss. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric also deteriorated significantly. 3. **Contagious Negative Sentiment:** The Coinbase Premium Index, which shows U.S. institutional buying/selling pressure, turned deeply negative for most of the month. This confirmed the ETF outflows and reflected a strategic shift away from crypto toward assets like U.S. Treasuries. 4. **Leverage Unwinding and Psychological Breaks:** Despite the downturn, futures open interest initially grew, signaling leveraged positioning. This culminated in a sharp deleveraging event with $307 million in long liquidations. Furthermore, the price broke below the critical $75K-$76K support zone, which is both a key gamma option level and the approximate average cost basis for major public companies holding Bitcoin, turning them from potential buyers into potential sellers. The report concludes that the market's pricing power has shifted from macro narratives to internal liquidation. While Bitcoin's 200-week moving average quantile has entered a historical "value zone" at 10.2%, this indicates a deep bear market reset is underway, not an immediate reversal. A sustainable recovery will require both a genuine improvement in the macro liquidity environment and clear signs of renewed on-chain demand, such as ETF inflows resuming and the Coinbase Premium turning positive. Until then, discipline and capital preservation are paramount.

marsbit06/09 07:46

Monera Digital｜Crypto Market May Report: Four Major Reasons Behind the Accelerated Decline

marsbit06/09 07:46

BTC Market Pulse: Week 24

Bitcoin market sentiment remains cautious as sellers dominate activity across spot and derivatives markets. Increased spot volume reflects defensive selling rather than new demand, while futures open interest contracts and options skew indicates heightened demand for downside protection. U.S. spot ETF data shows surging volumes but persistently negative net flows, suggesting institutions are re-evaluating exposure. Despite this pressure, fundamental network metrics like active addresses show broadening engagement, and long-term holders continue to dominate supply, maintaining a resilient underlying structure. The market appears to be navigating a phase of capitulation, balancing short-term liquidation pressure against a stable long-term holder base.

insights.glassnode06/08 13:13

BTC Market Pulse: Week 24

insights.glassnode06/08 13:13

Has Bitcoin's 'Rebound Ended', Officially Entering the Late Bear Market Phase?

**Title: Has Bitcoin's Rebound Ended, Entering the Late Bear Market Phase?** **Summary:** Bitcoin's price has declined by 13% this week, signaling a potential return to late-stage bear market conditions. The price fell to around $67k, positioned between the Realized Price and Realized Cap Weighted Average. For the first time since early 2022, the Short-Term Holder cost basis has dropped below this key average, confirming a hallmark of late-cycle bear markets. Profitability metrics have collapsed sharply. The 7-day average of the Realized Profit/Loss ratio plummeted from a local high of 3.16 to 0.29, mirroring the February panic sell-off. Critically, the 90-day average never breached the threshold of 2, indicating the recent rally to $82k was a bear market bounce, not a structural shift. Realized losses surged to $1.35 billion daily, with $770 million coming from Long-Term Holders selling at a loss. This accelerating redistribution of supply from weak to strong hands is a necessary but ongoing process for a market bottom. The rally stalled almost precisely at the aggregate cost basis (~$83k) of US spot Bitcoin ETF investors, turning that level into strong resistance and leaving the average ETF holder underwater again. Spot market flows have turned decisively negative, showing sellers are dominating order books despite the price drop. While a significant futures long liquidation event cleared over $400 million in leverage, providing a potential reset, sustained spot demand is yet to materialize. Options markets continue to price in higher future volatility (Implied Volatility) than recent price action (Realized Volatility) has shown, with a persistent skew towards put options, indicating ongoing demand for downside protection. In conclusion, multiple metrics point to a fragile market structure. Resistance at the ETF cost basis, accelerating realized losses, dominant spot selling, and cautious options pricing all suggest the bear market trend persists. A sustainable recovery likely requires a resurgence of spot demand, ETF holders returning to profit, and a clear reduction in selling pressure.

marsbit06/05 11:07

Has Bitcoin's 'Rebound Ended', Officially Entering the Late Bear Market Phase?

marsbit06/05 11:07

活动图片

Regulatory Policyright-arrow

Project Updatesright-arrow