# Authorized Participant İlgili Makaleler

HTX Haber Merkezi, kripto endüstrisindeki piyasa trendleri, proje güncellemeleri, teknoloji gelişmeleri ve düzenleyici politikaları kapsayan "Authorized Participant" hakkında en son makaleleri ve derinlemesine analizleri sunmaktadır.

Did Jane Street 'Manipulate' BTC? Deconstructing the AP System and Understanding the Pricing Power Game Behind the ETF Creation and Redemption Mechanism

The article investigates allegations that Jane Street Capital manipulated Bitcoin prices by exploiting the ETF creation and redemption mechanism. It clarifies that the issue is not unique to Jane Street but stems from structural features of the Authorized Participant (AP) system common to all Bitcoin ETFs, including those from major firms like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citadel. APs hold a unique regulatory exemption under Reg SHO, allowing them to create and redeem ETF shares without typical short-selling constraints like borrowing costs or hard deadlines. This creates a potential conflict: while market inefficiencies (e.g., ETF trading below NAV) should naturally attract arbitrageurs to correct prices, APs—who control the arbitrage pipeline—may delay arbitrage to profit elsewhere, such as in derivatives markets. The shift to in-kind (rather than cash) creations/redemptions further reduced structural buying pressure on Bitcoin spot markets. The core problem is not deliberate price suppression by any single AP but a systemic flaw: the AP framework, designed for traditional finance, may undermine price discovery integrity for Bitcoin. The article concludes by questioning whether existing regulatory frameworks are suitable for an asset class predicated on decentralization.

marsbit02/28 12:48

Did Jane Street 'Manipulate' BTC? Deconstructing the AP System and Understanding the Pricing Power Game Behind the ETF Creation and Redemption Mechanism

marsbit02/28 12:48

Farewell to 24-Hour Delays: How to Predict ETF Fund Flows Through Premium Rates

The article explains how ETF premium/discount rates can predict daily fund flows for Bitcoin and ETH ETFs, bypassing the 24-hour delay of official data. A persistent negative premium (ETF trading below its net asset value) typically signals net outflows, as Authorized Participants (APs) arbitrage by buying cheap ETF shares, redeeming them for the underlying asset, and selling it. Conversely, a positive premium (ETF trading above NAV) predicts inflows, as APs buy the underlying asset to create new ETF shares to sell at the higher price. Statistical analysis from a 146-day period showed this indicator was accurate approximately 81-84% of the time. For instance, a week of sustained premiums below -0.15% in January 2026 preceded a $1.3 billion outflow and a significant price drop. The article cautions that the premium rate is not a standalone tool. Its effectiveness depends on normal market function and should be combined with other indicators for confirmation, such as: - ETF holdings changes - Futures basis and funding rates - Options Put/Call ratios - On-chain large transfers and exchange net flows Key usage tips include focusing on the persistence of the extremity of the premium rate (±1% is significant) and considering the asset's price context (e.g., negative premium at a price high may signal a top). The goal is to use this real-time data to gain an informational edge and validate trends.

marsbit02/01 05:37

Farewell to 24-Hour Delays: How to Predict ETF Fund Flows Through Premium Rates

marsbit02/01 05:37

How to Use Premium Rate to See Through ETF Fund Flows 24 Hours in Advance?

This article explains how to use the ETF premium/discount rate as a leading indicator to predict fund flows into and out of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs up to 24 hours before official data is released. The premium rate reflects the difference between an ETF's market price and the net asset value (NAV) of its underlying assets. A positive premium indicates bullish sentiment and high demand, often leading to net inflows as authorized participants (APs) create new shares to arbitrage the price difference. Conversely, a negative premium (discount) signals bearish sentiment and selling pressure, typically resulting in net outflows as APs redeem shares. Historical data from 2025-2026 shows a strong correlation: a positive premium predicted net inflows with 84% accuracy, while a negative premium predicted net outflows with 81% accuracy. Key practical applications include: - Monitoring the persistence of premiums/discounts over multiple days, not just single readings. - Watching for extreme values beyond ±0.5%, which indicate strong sentiment shifts. - Combining the indicator with price action (e.g., sustained discounts at market tops can signal early distribution). The article cautions that this is not a standalone tool. For higher conviction, it should be combined with other metrics like changes in ETF holdings, futures basis and funding rates, options put/call ratios, and on-chain exchange flows to confirm trends and potential turning points.

比推01/30 13:10

How to Use Premium Rate to See Through ETF Fund Flows 24 Hours in Advance?

比推01/30 13:10

Understanding Premium Rate: Stay 24 Hours Ahead of ETF Data

Understanding ETF Premium Rates: A 24-Hour Advantage in Crypto Trading With the approval of BTC and ETH spot ETFs, daily fund flows have become a critical indicator for traders. However, this data is delayed by one day, often causing market prices to reflect the information before it is officially published. A key real-time indicator to anticipate ETF net inflows or outflows is the **ETF premium rate**. The premium rate reflects the difference between an ETF's market price and its net asset value (NAV). A positive premium suggests bullish sentiment and potential inflows, while a negative premium indicates bearish sentiment and likely outflows. Data from January 2026 showed that negative premium rates occurred on 16 out of 18 trading days, with 11 of those days resulting in net outflows. A longer-term analysis (July 2025 to January 2026) revealed an **81% accuracy rate** for negative premiums predicting outflows and **84%** for positive premiums predicting inflows. The mechanism behind this involves Authorized Participants (APs) who perform arbitrage: - A positive premium prompts APs to create ETF shares (buying underlying assets → net inflow). - A negative premium leads to share redemption (selling assets → net outflow). To use premium rates effectively: 1. Focus on **sustained trends** rather than one-day values. 2. Watch for **extreme values** (e.g., beyond ±1%), indicating strong sentiment shifts. 3. Consider **price context**—high prices with negative premiums may signal sell-offs, while low prices with positive premiums may indicate accumulation. However, premium rates should not be used alone. Combine them with: - ETF holdings change - Futures basis and funding rates - Put/Call ratios - On-chain whale movements and exchange inflows/outflows Multi-dimensional analysis improves accuracy. While no indicator is perfect, premium rates offer a timely glimpse into fund flows, giving traders an informational edge.

marsbit01/30 05:05

Understanding Premium Rate: Stay 24 Hours Ahead of ETF Data