Genius (GENIUS) падение

An AI-focused hedge fund named Situational Awareness LP, known for its 60x returns, has taken a significant bearish stance on semiconductor stocks in Q1 2026. Its 13F filing reveals a massive 148% quarterly increase in nominal exposure to $13.677 billion, with over 60% of the new exposure directed towards put options on major chip players. Key bearish bets include $2.04 billion in puts on the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and $1.56 billion on NVIDIA, alongside positions against Broadcom, Oracle, AMD, and others. The fund simultaneously increased its long equity holdings in AI infrastructure and compute providers like CoreWeave and Bitcoin mining companies repurposing for compute. The core thesis behind this positioning is a shift in the primary constraint for AI expansion. The fund argues that while GPU supply was the critical bottleneck in previous years, the new limiting factors for large-scale AI cluster deployment are physical infrastructure: electrical grid access (with multi-year backlogs in the US), power availability, land, and data center construction timelines. The fund is not betting against AI's success but rather hedging against potential valuation corrections in semiconductor stocks whose prices may have run ahead, while directly investing in the downstream physical bottlenecks—power and data center capacity—it believes will capture value next. This move translates a previously theoretical narrative about infrastructure constraints into a concrete, high-conviction portfolio structure.

Circle raised $222 million for its proprietary Layer-1 blockchain, Arc, positioning itself not just as a stablecoin issuer but as the owner of the settlement infrastructure USDC relies on. This move, backed by investors like BlackRock and Apollo, highlights a significant structural conflict unaddressed by the GENIUS Act of 2025. While the act focuses on stablecoin reserves and issuer oversight, it remains silent on the market structure implications of an issuer controlling the underlying network—a scenario akin to a currency issuer also owning the payment rails. Traditionally, financial regulations separate issuers from settlement infrastructure to ensure neutrality. With Arc, Circle gains control over transaction ordering, fees, and network rules, potentially favoring USDC over competitors. The article argues that this creates a permanent structural temptation, even if no abuse occurs. The solution lies in applying established market infrastructure principles: mandating neutral transaction ordering, transparent fee schedules, and governance separated from Circle’s commercial interests. The current pre-mainnet phase offers a critical window for regulators to establish these rules before Arc becomes entrenched. Once operational, enforcing changes would be costly and disruptive. The core question remains: should a regulated stablecoin issuer be allowed to own the settlement network its competitors must use? The GENIUS Act doesn’t answer this, but Circle’s Arc strategy makes it urgent.