Tyler Winklevoss says he feels optimistic precisely because crypto sentiment looks so bleak. However, the exchange he co-founded with his brother Cameron now faces a sharp strategic reset as financial pressures mount.
As per the data available on Arkham, there has been a significant decline in the Bitcoin assets held by Winklevoss Capital over the past year. The balance in the wallet has been reduced from around 23,000 BTC in February 2025 to less than 11,000 BTC in February 2026. This is contrary to the optimistic approach taken by Tyler.
Gemini Revenue Rises but Costs Surge
Gemini’s latest filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) shows mixed signals. The exchange expects net revenue between $165 million and $175 million for 2025, up from $141 million in 2024. Monthly transacting users climbed 17% year-over-year to approximately 600,000.
Operating expenses, however, have ballooned. Gemini projects cost between $520 million and $530 million for 2025, compared with $308 million the previous year. The widening gap between revenue and expenses forced management to act quickly.
On Feb. 5, Gemini announced it would cut up to 25% of its workforce. The exchange exited the United Kingdom, the European Union, and Australia to concentrate operations in the United States and Singapore.
Less than two weeks later, Gemini parted ways with its chief operating officer, chief financial officer, and chief legal officer. Cameron Winklevoss assumed expanded responsibilities as interim leaders stepped into finance and legal roles.
Market Share Slips as Strategy Shifts
Gemini’s global spot market share has fallen sharply. Bloomberg reported that the exchange’s share dropped to around 0.1% in January, down from 0.6% in mid-2025. Its valuation has also declined from nearly $4 billion to under $700 million since its public listing last year.
Management now pivots toward new growth areas. Gemini also has plans to enter the business of Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulated prediction markets, as well as custody and credit card services. This is a result of a desire to diversify their revenue streams.
Bleak Sentiment Weighs on Industry
Gemini’s restructuring is taking place in a rather unusual negative sentiment environment in the crypto space. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded five consecutive weeks of outflows. Sentiment indicators such as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index have slipped into extreme fear territory. Google searches for “Bitcoin going to zero” have surged to levels last seen in 2022.
Yet several high-profile investors remain committed. Japan’s Metaplanet continues accumulating Bitcoin aggressively. Strategy, the largest publicly listed Bitcoin holder with over 717,000 BTC, has hinted at another purchase milestone. Arthur Hayes also maintains a heavy Bitcoin allocation alongside gold and oil.
Macro analyst Lyn Alden remains constructive on Bitcoin but expects a grinding market rather than a rapid rally.
Tyler Winklevoss frames this pessimism as an opportunity. He thinks that extreme negativity is often a precursor to long-term recovery. But Gemini needs to stabilize its operations and regain market share before optimism can be converted into tangible results.
The next few months will prove whether Gemini’s strategic overhaul can help it regain competitiveness in the increasingly consolidated market of exchanges.
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