Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Golem (@web3_golem)
Data from the prediction platform Polymarket shows that the expected probability of "Lighter will airdrop on December 29" has plummeted from 87% four days ago to 25%, nearly halving.
Although the drop in probability does not directly equate to the cancellation of the airdrop, market sentiment has clearly cooled. As of the time of writing, Lighter has still not released a detailed token economic model, which doesn't feel at all like the atmosphere leading up to a TGE and airdrop. Interestingly, LIT spot trading is already visible on the Lighter Staging page today, but it's unclear how long this testing will last. (Odaily Note: Staging is a pre-release environment in the product development process, situated between the Testing environment and Production launch, generally seen as the final rehearsal before a product officially goes live.)
It is important to note that the settlement for the prediction "Lighter will airdrop on December 29" on Polymarket uses Eastern Time (ET). Therefore, for investors in the UTC+8 time zone, for the prediction to settle as "no," Lighter must not airdrop before 13:00 on December 30. Investors in other time zones should convert the time accordingly.
Although Lighter's market lead, Pilla.eth, had clearly stated in an AMA that both the TGE and airdrop would occur in 2025, under the influence of fear, the probability of the prediction "Lighter will airdrop before December 31, 2025" on Polymarket has dropped from 94% to 64%. The highly upvoted analyses from players betting "No" below lack reasonable analysis or insider information, mostly consisting of emotional bets or focusing on semantics:
- "It's confirmed that the airdrop will be in 2026."
- "I still can't understand why these fools said nothing about TGE, yet the probability reached 94%. This was the worst AMA of my life, wasting 45 minutes listening to a bunch of nonsense with no useful information."
- "TGE is not equal to an airdrop; they are not the same thing. There are many examples of this. Read the rules clearly first."
- "According to the settlement rules, locked tokens or non-tradable tokens do not qualify as conditions for a 'Yes' outcome. Even if the project releases an airdrop checker and shows your allocation, as long as the tokens cannot be freely traded on the market, the result is 'No.'"
Of course, besides the unclear airdrop date, Lighter also faces concerns such as anti-Sybil doubts and a valuation trap, with several dark clouds looming. Coinciding with the overall market cooling at the end of the year, any movement from any project will attract extra attention from the community—Lighter's current动向 is truly "timely."
The Strictest Anti-Sybil Measures of 2025
Lighter has caught the tailwinds of two of the hottest narratives of 2025 (Pre-DEX and RWA), so investors are quite optimistic about it. In early December, market whispers suggested that Lighter would conduct its TGE and airdrop within 2025, further boosting investor enthusiasm. Some users with high points even began "popping champagne at halftime" on social media.
A Lighter points leader publishing a premature victory speech
As the old saying goes, success comes from secrecy, failure from leaks. Many blamed the subsequent stringent Sybil screening launched by Lighter on these boastful users (although this might not be the actual reason).
On December 23, Lighter announced in its official Discord the commencement of a large-scale Sybil screening, removing points obtained by Sybil addresses, wash trading, and volume manipulation. However, these deducted points (including those already removed) would be redistributed to the community.
The community instantly erupted. After Lighter initiated the Sybil screening, points from numerous studio accounts were deducted. Some bloggers claimed that Lighter's anti-Sybil measures were extremely strict, with an estimated 70-90% of studio accounts being caught. Even ordinary airdrop farmers' accounts were not spared, leading to widespread "lamentation" on social media.
Some even compared Lighter to the LayerZero of 2025. In 2024, LayerZero flagged over 800,000 wallet addresses before its airdrop. Although the number of Sybil addresses for Lighter might not be as high as LayerZero's, the severity might be comparable.
Such stringent anti-Sybil actions undoubtedly put Lighter at odds with the community.
According to some users flagged as Sybils, the reason given by Lighter was simply "abnormal trading," with no further explanation. The Sybil rules are not transparent, meaning users don't even know how they "died."
However, facing community质疑, Lighter's founder and CEO, Vladimir Novakovski, remained confident in this rather arbitrary Sybil screening, stating that the anti-Sybil algorithm would not be made public. His explanation was to "avoid being gamed," and he also mentioned an appeal mechanism was in place for Sybil screening. But so far, the number of appeals has been much lower than expected.
Some community members don't believe Vladimir's excuses, suspecting that Lighter's harsh anti-Sybil measures are meant to protect their own insider (rat) warehouses, and that even the off-market points price might have been secretly pumped by the Lighter team.
After all, since ancient times in the币圈, the principle of "the big airdrops are simple" has held true. The more complex the interaction, the stricter the anti-Sybil, the more likely something fishy is going on. Even peers in the same赛道 as Lighter, like Hyperliquid and Aster, were not this tedious and "stingy" during their airdrops.
The Lighter community currently resembles students checking their exam results post-gaokao. Every day Lighter continues Sybil screening is another day of煎熬 for them.
Is the FDV Overvalued?
Amid the already depressed market environment and fueled by negative community sentiment, the market has begun to question: Is Lighter overvalued?
On Polymarket, the probability of predicting "Lighter's FDV will be greater than $1 billion on the first day of listing" has dropped from 90% to 72%, and the probability for "Lighter's FDV will be greater than $2 billion on the first day of listing" has also fallen from 87% to 68%. This indicates declining market confidence in Lighter's valuation.
Referring to the first-day market capitalization of the other two major Pre-DEXs (Hyperliquid and Aster), Hyperliquid's FDV was approximately $3.6 billion at its opening on November 29, 2024, while Aster's opening FDV on September 17, 2024, was around $10.8 billion. According to Binance's pre-market data, Lighter's current pre-market FDV is approximately $3.3 billion, having peaked at $4.3 billion.
From this perspective, the valuation of Lighter on Polymarket seems reasonable. So why is market confidence still falling?
One reason is that the selling pressure from the airdrop cannot be ignored, especially after Lighter's widespread Sybil screening has damaged community goodwill. Most users will likely sell immediately upon receiving the airdrop. According to the Lighter team, the airdrop ratio might be 25% of the total token supply, with no lock-up restrictions. Therefore, the selling pressure from the airdrop will undoubtedly pose significant resistance to Lighter's market cap growth.
The second reason is that for a period after the token launch, LIT will only be traded on its own platform and will not be actively listed on other exchanges. The Lighter team has also stated that they have not paid listing fees to any trading platforms. This means that Lighter will not fully access CEX liquidity for some time after launch, thereby limiting the upside potential for the LIT token post-listing.
Nevertheless, some whales remain confident in Lighter. On Hyperliquid, the long-short forces for Lighter are still relatively balanced. Since the pre-market contracts went live, 10 whales with positions exceeding $1 million have entered the market, evenly split between long and short positions.
Andy, founder of The Rollup, also stated that although Lighter's open interest (OI) will likely drop by more than 20% and trading volume may decrease by over 30% after the initial token volatility subsides, he would still choose to buy if LIT's fully diluted valuation (FDV) is around $2 billion.
